Hurricanes Bud, Carlotta On The Move In Pacific - NOAA/NHC

[hatrack]

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 131438
TCDEP3
HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006
800 AM PDT THU JUL 13 2006

BUD'S APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND WITH
WARMING CLOUD TOPS BUT THE EYE STILL REMAINS DISTINCT IN THE
VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGES. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE
BETWEEN 102 AND 115 KT AT 12Z...THOUGH ODT WAS ABOUT 90 KT AND AMSU
SUGGESTS WINDS AS LOW AS 82 KT. INTENSITY IS THUS DROPPED TO 100
KT. THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
ABOUT 15 KT.

BUD IS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE.
ALTHOUGH A BREAK IN THE RIDGE EXISTS AROUND 130-140 W...BUD IS NOT
LIKELY TO BE DEEP ENOUGH IN TWO DAYS TO MAKE THE TURN TO THE NORTH.
ALL GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE GFS TRACKS BUD TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR 36
HOURS THEN TURNS IT TOWARD THE WEST AND EVEN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT
120 HOURS. THE GFS TOO QUICKLY LOSES THE VORTEX AND PICKS UP ON A
DIFFERENT DISTURBANCE AFTER 24 HOURS. THUS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH
INCLUDES THE GFS. FOR INTENSITY...BUD SHOULD BEGIN A QUICK DECLINE
SINCE IT IS CURRENTLY OVER 25C SSTS AND WILL DROP TO 22C WITHIN
24-36 HOURS. SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD ALSO INCREASE AS
BUD MOVES CLOSER TO THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SHIPS GUIDANCE PRIMARILY BUT IT IS
SOMEWHAT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN WEAKENING...AS SUGGESTED BY THE FSU
SUPER-ENSEMBLE AND THE EXPERIMENTAL SHIPS-LGE MODEL. BUD IS
PREDICTED TO DROP BELOW HURRICANE FORCE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND
CONTINUE WEAKENING THEREAFTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/1500Z 17.9N 122.0W 100 KT
12HR VT 14/0000Z 19.0N 124.2W 90 KT
24HR VT 14/1200Z 20.1N 127.0W 70 KT
36HR VT 15/0000Z 21.0N 129.8W 55 KT
48HR VT 15/1200Z 21.5N 132.3W 40 KT
72HR VT 16/1200Z 22.0N 138.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 17/1200Z 22.0N 142.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 18/1200Z 21.5N 146.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep3+shtml/153750.shtml?5day?large

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 131436
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006
800 AM PDT THU JUL 13 2006

CARLOTTA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED AND IN
FACT...IT HAS DETERIORATED A LITTLE BIT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY THE LATEST AMSU DATA WHICH SHOWS THE
CENTER OF THE CYCLONE ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION.
SINCE THE T-NUMBERS HAVE ALSO DECREASED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ADJUSTED DOWN TO 70 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE OUTFLOW
FROM BUD IS AFFECTING CARLOTTA AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE. ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...A WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER...
PRIMARILY WHEN THE CYCLONE REACHES RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS. THIS
IS ALSO THE SOLUTION OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 290 DEGREES
AT 12 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS GENERAL STEERING PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS. THEREFORE...CARLOTTA
SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. BY THEN...CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO BE A
SHALLOW SYSTEM OVER COOL WATERS STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/1500Z 17.3N 110.4W 70 KT
12HR VT 14/0000Z 17.7N 112.3W 70 KT
24HR VT 14/1200Z 18.0N 114.7W 65 KT
36HR VT 15/0000Z 18.0N 116.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 15/1200Z 18.2N 118.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 16/1200Z 18.5N 121.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 17/1200Z 19.0N 123.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 18/1200Z 20.0N 126.5W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep4+shtml/154034.shtml?5day?large

[uppityperson]

1. I was watching Bud yesterday, didn't see Carlotta, thanks.

out to Pacific, but still hurricanes. Good luck later this summer

[jean]

2. Bud??? As in, this Bud's for you? Noooo!