27 June Drought Monitor - Drought Steadily Worsening In SW, Plains

[hatrack]

National Drought Summary -- June 27, 2006

The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilized include the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast web page used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

Hot and mostly dry conditions continued last week in the drought-stricken areas of the Southwest and western Plains. The central and northern Plains received some beneficial rain, especially in Kansas. The eastern slopes of the southern and central Appalachians and mid-Atlantic region experienced persistent heavy rains. Crop conditions fared about as well as the previous week (according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service), but have deteriorated slightly in northeastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. The number of fires as well as fire danger increased in the dry parts of the West.

The East: A slow-moving frontal system entrained tropical moisture, causing widespread moderate to very heavy rains in most areas of dryness and drought in the southern and central Appalachians and eastern foothills northward and eastward into the Delmarva Peninsula and New Jersey. Rainfall totals of more than 6 inches were common in northern Virginia and Maryland. As a result, dryness ended in most of this region. The western Carolinas received over 4 inches of precipitation from the event, ending the agricultural drought, but a hydrologic drought persisted. Conditions were essentially unchanged in drier parts of the East north of Florida. Beneficial rains along the southwestern coast in Florida improved conditions, but water restrictions in this area are still in force. The abnormally dry conditions along the eastern coast of Florida expanded southward.

Gulf Coast: Despite a few scattered thunderstorms, D0 to D3 conditions continued in concert with increasing moisture deficits. Dryness spread in northeastern Alabama, where water managers and agricultural interests are beginning to be negatively impacted.

The Plains and Midwest: Beneficial heavy rainfall alleviated some of the dryness in parts of Kansas. Weekly rainfall totals of at least 2 inches were widespread in the western half of the state. As a result, drought conditions were upgraded. In response to decreased soil moisture and very little precipitation, D0 was expanded in northeastern North Dakota, northwestern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. In South Dakota, the area of drought in the central part of the state intensified. However, conditions improved in the southeastern corner of the state. Improvement was also experienced in east central Illinois, but conditions deteriorated in Missouri. Conditions in Oklahoma improved in the eastern part of the state as well as in the north central area. In the rest of the region, conditions were similar to the previous week.

West: Although some beneficial rain fell in the western Plains, and improved conditions were evident in northeastern New Mexico, dryness persisted over most of the Rockies and Southwest and intensified in northwestern Colorado and along the Montana-Wyoming border. The areas of Colorado above about 9,000 feet elevation were abnormally dry, but the lower elevations were much drier. Fire danger is extreme in the lower elevations. Throughout the dry Southwest and West, a number of new fires were reported.

Outlying Areas: Abnormally dry conditions persisted in southeastern Alaska and parts of northwestern Hawaii. In Puerto Rico, rainfall was scattered with light to moderate intensity. Fourteen active fires were burning in Alaska; the Parks Highway fire has already burned over 110,000 acres.

Looking Ahead: Over the next few days, moderate to heavy rainfall is expected in the Northeast as the slow-moving system that inundated the southern and central Appalachians tracks northeastward, and dry conditions are expected in the southern Plains and Southeast. The West, central and northern Plains, and upper Midwest should be warmer than normal. Looking farther ahead through July 11, the West is expected to be dry and hot. The Great Lakes region is expected to be dry with average temperatures. The rest of the country is expected to experience typical summertime conditions. Isolated or scattered showers may provide some local, but not wide-scale, relief to drought areas. Alaska is expected to be warm and dry.
Author: Ned Guttman, National Climatic Data Center, NCDC/NESDIS/NOAA

EDIT/END

http://drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

[benburch]

1. Which has consequences for any massive biofuels initiative! nt