Drought Monitor 6/20 - No Real Changes, 46% Of Winter Wheat Poor/Very Poor

[hatrack]

Despite broad areas of improvement across the southeastern piedmont and coastal plain (from Tropical Storm Alberto) and southern Florida (from drenching thunderstorms), and localized improvement in the Houston area, dryness and drought generally continued in the Southwest and Plains and along the northern Gulf coast last week. The extent and timing of this dryness has caused steadily increasing stress on crops for the nation as a whole. According to the National Agricultural Statistics Service, 46 percent of the winter wheat in the primary production states was in poor or very poor condition as of June 18, 2006, compared to only 17 percent of the crop at this time last year. In addition, other crops with considerably larger proportions in poor or very poor condition relative to mid-June 2005 included pasture and range (32 percent, compared to 11 percent), oats (30 percent, compared to 8 percent), cotton (26 percent, compared to 9 percent), and sorghum (23 percent, compared to 6 percent).

The East: Tropical Storm Alberto dropped widespread moderate to heavy rains on most areas of dryness and drought in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic coastal and piedmont regions. As a result, dryness ended in the eastern parts of Georgia, northward to the Chesapeake Bay, and D1 conditions improved to D0 slightly farther to the north and west. Conditions were essentially unchanged in drier parts of the region north of Florida. Beneficial rains in South Florida improved conditions from D1 to D0.

Drought intensified in the western Carolinas, with precipitation for the year being about two-thirds of normal or less. Consequently, this area has been downgraded to D2. Note that because of topographical influences on weather patterns, drought was occurring east of the Appalachian ridge line (North Carolina-Tennessee border), but normal conditions were experienced west of the ridge line. The situation of improvement on the west side of the ridge and drought intensification on the east side resulted in a sharp discontinuity of conditions at the ridge line. Elsewhere outside of the track of Alberto, only scattered light to moderate rains were observed, allowing dryness and drought to persist. The driest areas were in a narrow band just east of the Appalachian ridge.

Gulf Coast: Despite a few scattered thunderstorms, D0 to D3 conditions persisted in concert with increasing moisture deficits. An exception was the Houston area, over which torrential rains of up to 10 inches fell. Most of the current D1 areas recorded 8 to 16 inches less rain than normal for the last 90 days, with 16- to 24-inch deficits reported in southern Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana. Since the middle of last June, precipitation totals were more than 20 inches below normal in southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and coastal sections of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.

The Plains and Midwest: Beneficial heavy rainfall alleviated some of the dryness in parts of Nebraska, Iowa and South Dakota. Weekly totals of 2 to 4 inches were common in these regions. In western Oklahoma, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches led to a shrinking of the D3 area. Although conditions improved, the long-term drought conditions persisted. According to the Lincoln Journal Star, in Nebraska, Gov. Heineman added 28 counties to a request for federal drought disaster relief, bringing the total to 36. The counties have suffered at least a 30 percent loss in one or more crop or livestock areas. More than half of Nebraska’s wheat crop was rated as poor or very poor, almost half of the pastures were rated poor or very poor, and cattle producers have been forced to cull herds in many areas.

Relatively dry conditions elsewhere led to broad areas of dryness expansion and drought deterioration. The D1 region of Iowa expanded northward, and the D0 and D1 areas of Illinois expanded eastward. The lower peninsula of Michigan was becoming drier, and the D0 area of Kansas was also becoming drier, but the depiction for these areas was not changed from last week.

West: Similar to areas farther east, isolated heavy rains led to small areas of drought improvement, but dryness persisted in a vast majority of the Rockies and Southwest. Numerous wildfires have been reported in Arizona and New Mexico

Outlying Areas: Abnormally dry conditions persisted in southeastern Alaska and parts of northwestern Hawaii. In Puerto Rico, rainfall was scattered with light to moderate intensity. Alaska experienced two large wildfires.

Looking Ahead: Through July 4, moderate rain associated with a broad flow of moisture from the Gulf and Atlantic is expected along the eastern seaboard. The drought-stricken western Central and Southern Plains, and south Texas, may experience above normal precipitation. Isolated or scattered showers may provide some local, but not wide-scale, relief to other drought areas. Dry weather is expected from the Northwest to the Great Lakes region. Temperatures are expected to be above normal in the west, and below normal in the Southeast. In Alaska, the southern half is expected to be dry, and the eastern half is expected to be warm.

Author: Ned Guttman, National Climatic Data Center, NCDC/NESDIS/NOAA

EDIT

http://drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

[acmejack]

1. Combined with the mad rush to convert grain to fuel

Can it be that very long before we shall see food riots. Historically, starvation has been a powerful motivation for social upheaval.

[Boomer]

2. Don't forget beef either

Resources used to raise beef -- energy, water, food stock -- are yet another link in the food chain that we can ill afford.

[acmejack]

3. absolutely!

I have read that if Americans alone reduced their beef consumption by 20%, the resultant grain savings would eliminate world hunger. An amazing claim, found on the back of a veggie burger box, the brand of which escapes me at the moment.

[amandabeech]

4. Beef will be cheap as ranchers sell off their pasture or range-fed

animals. If corn and soybeans are adversely affected for a couple of years, then feedlot operations will suffer.

All in all, this could hit consumers in the pocketbook and the stomach. It could be a wakeup call to those who ignore or doubt global warming.

If there are no cheap burgers and steak is $18 a pound, folks will get upset.