Dust bowling? How long before the US needs to import food?

[NNadir]

[mainegreen]

1. When the water table runs dry?

:D

[brokensymmetry]

5. If by that you mean the Ogallala aquifer...

you're probably right. Especially since it's sealed and
can never recharge....

Nearly a third of the water used for irrigation comes from this
one source.

[depakid]

7. But Kansans & Nebraskans BELIEVE the water is there

so it is....

Just like the oil is there waiting to be found.

[Dead_Parrot]

8. It does recharge...

...but not nearly as fast as it's being depleted. There a useful pdf here with some background.

(On a side note - who the hell invented the acre-foot, and what were they smoking at the time? :))

[XemaSab]

9. Shut the hell up before I plant an acre-foot right in your backside!

:D

















(no animosity meant, I just felt like saying that :D )

[Dead_Parrot]

11. Ouch...

That's gonna hurt... Even if you convert it to 75,271,681 cubic inches...


:hurts:

[brokensymmetry]

10. Thanks!

That's an interesting document!

[Sinti]

2. This should be a big concern for all of us

The current "better living by chemistry" model of farming combined with what may very well be a cyclical drought experience in the middle of our nation puts at great risk one of the major contributors to our wealth and security. The sheer quantity of arable land we have is remarkable, and contributes in large measure (believe it or not) to our military power, as well. An army moves on its stomach, if you have to depend on other nations to feed you, they can readily extract their price for such commodities in your blood.

Strange the concurrent economic practices of the Teapot Dome and the ongoing and worsening drought in our southern plains, isn't it? Scary times we live in.

Very cool site about the '30 Dust Bowl, evidence of much older, similar catastrophic events, and the potential for another.
http://www.usd.edu/anth/epa/dust.html

[tanyev]

3. Maybe that's why we had to give India nukes in exchange for mangoes.

[IrateCitizen]

4. Remember topsoil depletion, too...

I have read that the great plains had, on average, 2 feet of topsoil when the first wave of homesteaders set up their farms. That amount is now down to less than 2 inches in many places.

Drought doesn't help things at all -- that's for sure. But without decent topsoil (or the massive amounts of nitrogen-based fertilizer to take its place), the American breadbasket is, in a word, f***ed.

[Sinti]

12. Three words - French Intensive Method :)

[midnight armadillo]

14. One word

Permaculture :)

[IrateCitizen]

17. I'm certainly in favor of these...

The problem lies in how far most people have gone from food production, and that such systems aren't geared toward highly centralized social organizations (like we live under now).

Then again, maybe THAT is the heart of the matter....

[IDemo]

13. Mandatory reading on the topic:

Most who have followed the peak oil issue for any length of time have already read it, The Oil We Eat, by Richard Manning.

[IrateCitizen]

16. Better yet, "Against the Grain" by the same author (n/t)

[Kolesar]

35. The Basque are the remnants of the Cro-Magnons

interesting essay. thanks for the referral.

[Kolesar]

6. How long until we quit feeding cattle?

And live off of oatmeal and beans.

[phantom power]

15. I don't think it will be very long.

My infallible 8-ball says that in 10-20 years, meat will become closer to a luxury item than the staple it is today. Kind of like it used to be. Sundays and special occasions.

[NNadir]

20. I'll bet you're right.

It won't trouble me much. I haven't had a hamburger in 30 years.

[NickB79]

18. So much for our ethanol-based economy

When the ground is too dry to grow crops.

Paging JohnWxy, paging JohnWxy please.

[NNadir]

19. ...

:evilgrin:

[amandabeech]

21. We are paving over excellent farmland by the Rhode Island-style

parcels every year, or thereabouts. Farmland paveovers are happening in areas that receive sufficient precipitation on a regular basis to grow all kinds of crops. This former farmland is under shopping centers, light industrial plants, warehouses and McMansions all over the Middle Atlantic, Northeast and eastern Midwest.

Some of this is just unnecessary sprawl, but some of it is due to the increase in population. In 1970 there were only about 200,000,000 of us. Now there are about 300,000,000. Since most people simply will not live in dense, Manhattan-like conditions, using additional land for housing and services for 100,000,000 more people will take its toll.

If our population growth and farmland destruction continue, how long will it be that we cannot feed ourselves even in a normal precipitation year? Math majors?

[ramapo]

22. Housing is the big cash crop even during a drought

I drove through Pennsylvania a few weeks ago for the first time in a number of years and was amazed, no more like appalled, at the vast expanses of farmland which now is home to McMansions.

Going beyond the loss of what might someday be critically needed farmland, is the utter starkness of these developments. No trees, little other landscaping. So you bake in the summer, are totally exposed in the winter, and generally live in a barren environment. I bet many of these homes have sprinkler systems to suck down the local aquifers.

Then there's the utter foolishness of location. These developments are out in nowhere, connected to somewhere only via the highway system, with the inhabitants totally dependant on the availability of "cheap" fuel.

Finally, I wonder how much in debt each homeowner went in order to buy into the housing bubble?

[phantom power]

23. Not so easy to turn it back into cropland, either.

[amandabeech]

24. No, it is not.

There have been several discussions of this on the Yahoo group RunningonEmpty2 over the years. It is not that much different than turning reclaimed strip-mined land to forest.

You might be able to get some pastureland going by adding quite a bit of compost and some rock dust made from moraine gravel, perhaps with a little extra ground phosphate and potassium bearing rock. Plant some light legumes on top of it, say a mixture of grasses and clover, and you might be able to jump-start the process a little.

[phantom power]

26. To say nothing of removing the houses themselves.

[amandabeech]

27. Particularly if they have basements.

It takes at least 10 years before you can build on fill. Or at least that's what I have read in connection with rebuilding low-lying areas of New Orleans.

The same thing would probably apply to basements. Judicious use of heavy rollers might speed things up, but all in all, these McMansion fields will be hard to get rid of. That is if they don't either become total slums or all down all by themselves due to shoddy construction.

[ramapo]

28. Nature can reclaim quickly

Although quickly is relative...a couple/few decades and nature can make a lot of progress. Basements are a problem, unmaintained paved surfaces do allow plants to eventually grow through thereby speeding up the process.

I love to find ruins out in the North Jersey forests. Usually these sites are less than 100 years old and there's not much left. Of course they didn't have poured concrete basements either.

[amandabeech]

30. I don't think that we will necessarily have decades.

n/t

[ramapo]

36. but nature does!

Sooner or later nature will win out, even after being seriously injured. She can spring some nasty tricks on an unsuspecting species...

[Boomer]

29. Impossible in many instances

Guess how all these McMansions get that perfect grass landscape. The application of major weed killers and other chemicals that leave the ground toxic for decades, if not longer. Once that farmland has been "treated" to grow those oh-so-pretty lawns, you won't be raising any vegetables from that plot of land.

The result of this destruction will be famine.

[Dead_Parrot]

31. Well, they'll grow...

...but they might be toxic as hell. It really depends on what's been put down - if it's glyphosate (roundup et al) you'll just be unhealthy: if it's a pyridine based herbicide (which a lot of lawn stuff is) then you're in for a world of pain, and as for paraquat... well, starving is probably preferable (unlikely to find it on a lawn, though - it's only one step down from agent orange).

What's your poison? :)

[amandabeech]

25. I live in PA now.

The whole thing is sickening. But then, most of what goes on in the U.S. and the world today is rather sickening.

McMansions bought with 0% down adjustable mortgages may be empty within the next 2-3 years. That means everyone who has one will have effectively lost a lot of money. Add that to high energy prices, not only to heat and cool the things, but also to commute an hour to work.

Yes, many of these "communities" are barren now and leave little room for any landscaping later. Well thought out landscaping really can help reduce heating and cooling costs.

Here's an example. My next door neighbors have a 1970s era cape cod. It is a nice-sized place, but does not have any shade trees on the south side. However, the bushes, deciduous and coniferous had grown up to cover everything that wasn'a window and then some. Last summer, the Mrs. decided to cut down the bushes. Instantly, the house temperature went up by 5-10 degrees! The Mr. wasn't too happy about that as they are retired and living on a comfortable (as far as I can tell) but fixed income.

Life in the U.S. will surely change and there will many very, very, very unhappy people. The question is, what in what action will that anger show itself.

[IrateCitizen]

32. House size has been GROWING during this period...

I understand what you're saying regarding population growth, but in many areas the massive expansion of sprawl cannot be explained away by it. For instance, back around 1960 I believe the average single-family house was in the neighborhood of 1200 square feet. Now, I believe it has surpassed 2000 square feet. Also consider that the average number of people living in each house is actually LESS than it was when we had the smaller houses.

While areas like where I live -- outside of NYC -- certainly have experienced population growth, it's not that way everywhere. For instance, Pittsburgh (the area I grew up) has experienced a pretty steady population level over the past 20 years -- but the area of the metropolitan area has actually grown. Other areas, like Binghamton, NY, have had NEGATIVE population growth while seeing their urban footprint grow.

[amandabeech]

33. I grew up in one of those 1200 sq. ft. houses. However,

it had a yard at least as big as many of the McMansions around here. A local real estate agent told me that current buyers don't want to deal with lawns, whether they mow them or not. Consequently, the walls of the houses are only 10 feet from the lot line, if that. What counts is the size of the lot, not the size of the home for sprawl purposes.

Each person having more space is an issue, but according to my recollections from being a kid back then, the average baby-boomer family had maybe three kids, and grandma and grandpa did not live with their kids until they were almost ready for the nursing home. The big difference that I see is that there are more people living alone, but most of them are not in McMansions.

Also in the '60s, more people lived on farms and in small towns. Depending on the crop and location, family-run farms are anywhere from 300-2500 or so acres. Back then, farms were more in the 160-300 acre range. That meant more folks on the farms and in the farm towns which provided goods and services to the farmers. Remember, back then the interstate highway system was far from complete, and most rural communities were served exclusively by crowded two-lane state and federal highways where traffic crawled along at the speed of the slowest vehicle. Travel times were often double what they are now. I speak from personal experience. Now, many rural areas are depopulated, and the descendants of the '60s era farms are living in the cities and suburbs,

And last, but not least, more and more people with children are leaving the cities because the schools are lousy and they can't afford private or parochial school tuition. Of course, many folks leave because they don't like living with minorities. On top of that, older housing does deteriorate. Renovations are often very costly if the wiring must be replaced along with the major mechanicals. Also, older homes, even those built in the '40s, '50s and '60s had little or no insulation and are extremely expensive to heat and cool. Then there's the lack of basic grocery and home supply shopping in many inner city neighborhoods. In the end, lots of people leave.

As to Binghamton. My area of Pennsylvania (s.cen.) is home to quite a few former Binghamton residents. The ones here left because New York moved NYC residents on public assistance to Binghamton and the place went completely downhill, at least according to them. I'm not endorsing their view, just repeating it for your consideration.

[ramapo]

37. It is complicated

I grew up and still live in the North Jersey suburbs. Not that long ago there were many small vegetable and diary farms. All are gone of course except for one or two preserved for posterity. We've approached 100% buildout and there are a considerable number of knockdowns with McMansion replacements.

Despite our dense population, North Jersey enjoys a decent amount of parkland, especially in our Highlands region. You can get out into the "wilderness" without much trouble. On the other hand, we have some of the ugliest, most poorly planned sprawl that you can imagine. The small town and urban centers that dotted this part of the state have in most respects fallen into utter decline and/or become completely car-centric.

There was once a decent mass transit infrastructure connecting these different small centers. Much of this was torn up during the 1950s and 1960s. Today it is being replaced, or plans are under consideration to do so, but at immense cost and along an unbelievably slow timeline. The overall cost of this folly is incalculable.

Rural areas everywhere are dying. There are no jobs and little else to support a population. The cities are really a two-sided coin, one quite shiny and bright, the other a corroded mess.

There are so many things that contributed to the decline of our cities. As these were once filthy industrial centers, the population couldn't wait to get out to greener pastures. Then there have been the problems of general infrastructure decay, loss of the tax base, and all the ensuing problems.

The suburbs are generally pleasant places. But there is much social isolation caused by the McMansion syndrome and large lots. Then again you have social isolation in the cities for entirely different reasons. However the unrelenting sprawl, zoned segregation (not racial but usage), total car dependency at the expense of mass transit, and a general lack of planning sense (though hindsight is 100% right) make you wonder how sustainable these living arrangements are (you can tell I read Kunstler).

Now I must confess to making my small contribution to the rise of McMansion-ville. My home was originally about 900sq ft. No basement, attic or garage. Very efficient to heat, crowded as all hell with two kids and all the stuff of today's lifestyle. Ten years ago we about doubled our living space and added a garage. The house is downright tiny compared to some of the building going on today.

[amandabeech]

39. I lived in northern Hudson County for 7 years back in the '80s.

Your post conjures up many memories of 'burbs and abandoned factories. Thanks for your informative post.

[NNadir]

41. I drove through central NJ yesterday. It's amazing how much farm

land there still is in places like Amwell.

They are all horse farms mostly, riding schools. It's very wierd.

They are still tearing up virgin farmland around here, but now the houses are selling very, very slowly. I think we may be seeing peak McMansionism.

When you go into to this giant cardboard boxes, it's amazing how much of the space is empty and useless. What the fuck is the point of a 15 foot ceiling?

[XemaSab]

42. It's conspicuous consumption

I love reading home decorating/garden magazines (ala Sunset) and I just can't get past the fact that some people will have a house with a 20 foot ceiling with WALLS of glass in, like, Wyoming. I can't fathom what the heating bills must be. :shrug:

[NNadir]

43. Of course, we all paying to heat these homes.

We pay with our atmosphere.

These are Hummer Houses. If it doesn't make one sick, it ought to.

[XemaSab]

44. To play Devil's Advocate

it really depends on the part of the country and the building materials.

A house with big windows on the California coast doesn't require a huge amount of heating or cooling, but houses in most other places require one or the other.

[NNadir]

45. Understood. But has a former Angelino, and San Diegan, this applies

to the coast mostly.

Fifty km inland is a different story. There at least is the issue of cooling in the warmer climates. Granted that the Coast of California is generally mild.

Here in NJ, the McMansion is typically just as stupid as a Hummer.

There are lots of these things around here. I typical entry has a two story foyer featuring a dumb chandelier (generally with all kinds of tiny incandescent bulbs) and a garish winding staircase.

One could argue that two story houses are more efficient to heat under certain circumstances, but only if the stairways are small, or, in the case of a winding stairway, have fans. But they never have fans, or almost never do.

Sometimes I reflect on the life of Andrei Sakharov, who in his autobiography describes growing up in Stalinist times with two families crammed into a few small rooms with one shared tiny bathroom in a hallway. Sakharov, of course, did great things - some questionable things - but many great things. This is a man who almost single handedly really brought the Soviet Union down, mostly on the basis of highly developed intellect and furious moral insight. Except for the decade in which he was a "Hero of the Soviet Union," (and even then, probably their dacha was modest by New Jersey standards) he and Elena Bonner lived small until almost the end of his life, a light bulb, a desk, and small rooms crammed with papers and books. And still he saw further, and deeper, and lived on a higher plane than more than of us ever even dream of.

My guess is that no one needs a McMansion. If Sakharov did what he did growing up in the space of a 100 square meters chock full of other people, no one needs a McMansion. Maybe Sakharov would have grown up hollow in a larger space; I have known my share of hollow children raised in imperious spaces in imperious homes. (One such young man, about whom I cared a fair amount, and of whom I expected great things, is in his twenties, living down the great marble hallway separated spiritually from his family, in the great silence of the blaring big screen, locked in front of a computer doing who knows what - he has never had a useful job.)

Of course, it is probably the case that I am being a little more than hypocritical here. I don't live in what could be called a McMansion myself, but I have far more than most human beings, far more than Sakharov ever had, and many of my neighbors live in McMansions. Sometimes my wife is intimidated by these things, but as the moral light of my life, I can honestly say she would never aspire to live in such a thing. I often fall into the trap of wanting more of this and more of that, because overall, I love my hometown, and would rather fit in than think of, say, the people in Botswana. But, as there are Botswanans, there is, really, no intrinsic reason that I could justify what I already have.

[Arger68]

34. Actually, I saw an article a while back

that said during the * administration the US became a net importer of food for the first time ever. I will try to find time to Google a search on the article.

[Dead_Parrot]

38. Floods, Winds Strike Mo., Okla. and Texas

http://www.salon.com/wire/ap/archive.html?wire=D8HD4C9OL.html

You can't win...

[NNadir]

40. My that's happy news.

These reminds me of hurricane Floyd a few years ago.

NJ was experiencing a tremendous record setting drought. Then, as the summer ended, Hurricane Floyd blew into town. Central New Jersey was under water, in some places up to the roof tops, for weeks.

I don't think the Central US can come up for air, though.

This sort of thing, I think, is going to become more likely. The thing seems not to be all one thing or all the other. It's the instability that seems to be causing the problem.

It doesn't help of course, that the world is way beyond its carrying capacity. There's little margin for error.