ShellRD- a 4 percent drop in quarterly production

[jmcgowanjm]

Declining crude production in the United States,
Britain, Australia and Norway more than offset higher
output at oil fields in Nigeria, Canada, Brazil, the United
Arab Emirates and Venezuela. Gas production slipped
due to declining yields from U.S. fields and maintenance activities in Britain

http://www.timesleader.com/mld/timesleader/business/7882710.htm

Every major now, plus minors-see Forest Oil restates,
except BP/TNK* reporting 2-4% drop in production for
quarter or year over year 2003

*BP/TNK article here

http://www.capitallinkrussia.com/press/companies/50010275/26444.html

[Champion Jack]

1. Read this:

About the whole peak oil situation


http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Index.html

[NNadir]

2. Thanx for keeping us appraised of this data.

It is said that the Peak in "Peak Oil" will be recognized retrospectively. It will be interesting to see this data in the next several years.

[jmcgowanjm]

3. Hey, NNadir, I think we'll be seeing more than data

www.oilcrisis.com/laherrere/Copenhagen2003.doc

BP, has tied itself to the anchor of the FSU (the Former
Soviet Union). TNK's "king" fields are worse than
Prudhoe Bay and its proven ones, Kyvokta and Uvat
are isolated in the middle of Siberia, production over runs,
restive populations or Sakhalin same story. India, China,
South Korea and Japan will be/are competing for the
production from these same fields. The US was but
just got kicked out.

At some point in the next few months, years, somewhere
the pipeline will be turned on and nothing will be coming out.

[NNadir]

4. Well it's a reality, and we have to live with reality.

I have to admit, the obvious pain aside, that I'm not totally distressed by this. I've been burning inside about the real cost of oil. I'm going to take a certain pleasure in all those stranded Hummers and the complete asses who make them and worse, buy them. It's bizarre, I think, that we were so self-absorbed and myopic to have squandered this resource in such a frivilous way, but I actually believe that there is a better future ahead.

In a way it's all like Dr. Suess's "The Lorax," that even 5 year olds could have understood. That's the problem though, 5 year old mentalities in middle aged bodies.

[jmcgowanjm]

5. A fellow Dr Seuss fan

I too demonstrated at the South Texas Nuclear units
at Matagordo Texas. Now I'm ambivalent.

I have been following the price of oil for 25 years. i'm still
wondering how I just found out about this only last summer.

I've also discovered how powerful Denial is, in the last 6 months, thru something as simple as Pregnancy;
we thought our niece was just getting fat. Her mother didn't
catch it until the 7th month,
and Lung Cancer, a family member, losing weight for 8 months,
with other signs that we just denied. Huge system failures
in my own little universe.

I've been following grainproduction, or lack of it since 2000,
longer than oil. I've been reading Paul Erlich, The
Population Explosion since the earlt 80's, and Jeremy
Rifkin, Entropy, and Lester Brown, State of the Union.

I too am optimistic, I don't know why though.
Maybe it's a survival mode. Pain threshold sort of thing.

[NNadir]

6. Denial is powerful indeed. I can say that I've not been in denial...

...about energy most of my adult life though. People used to ridicule me though, for saying that the oil would run out in our lifetimes. Even the (disasterous) fall in oil prices in the 80's and 90's did little to dissaude me.

Those of us who protested nuclear plants did so with the best intentions. It is really not the case however, that these best intentions paved a road to hell. The situation forced nuclear designers to think very carefully about the objections and develop new strategies for addressing them. This has resulted in much improvement in the technical options, an investment we can cash in on the future. We can take pride in having maximized the safety of nuclear energy.

Personally, I wish that we weren't in the bind that having 6 billion odd persons on the planet has put us in. Unfortunately killing 5 billion is not really an option, so we will have to make some difficult choices to minimize the pain. Hopefully we'll be able to step gingerly away from this population bomb.

Good luck with the new baby. Maybe it's not what everyone wanted, but a child can help one to turn one's life around magnificently. As for the cancer, that's a tough one. I've been there in my own family twice. Try to say the things you will want to remember saying. That's important.

[jmcgowanjm]

7. Thank you for your input, NNadir

You're right about the baby. It's going to have a tough time learning to walk because someone is always holding him.

The Cancer, too. The thing is that it shines a spotlight
on every unresolved issue. A real Rubik's Cube.
TLC needed in every move.

Unfortunately killing 5 billion is not really an option.
Here's my scenario. We're adding approximately
250K everyday. Each person demands free energy.
That means the energy must be available or the
person can't survive.

With the growth trend not being altered in any other way,
one day soon, the 250K will be added, find no additional
free energy and disappear. Probably more will disappear than 250K on that day, because the people producing the last 250k
were not able to find that much free energy themselves.Technically known as a key
reversal/inside day. it will then trigger further reductions
per day.

Again, technically with key reversals, the drop in the number
is faster than the rise.

St. Matthews Island/Reindeer is the numbers model.

Thanks again for your support, it's very welcome.