MSNBC: Demand outpaces gas production

[jmcgowanjm]

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/4001438/

[GAspnes]

1. the first pinch of peak oil?

This looks very serious, and strikes close to home as I sit here with -1 F. temperatures outside and my furnace running on natural gas.

[mattshortridge]

2. Julian Darley NG Book and event in DC

Julian Darley has a new book on the Natural Gas crisis, "High Noon for Natural Gas", coming out this spring on chelsea green. I'm hosting a talk with him this month in Takoma Park MD the talk will cover the impending Nat Gas crisis and Oil peak in general.
Monday, Feb 23, 7:00 pm
Takoma Park Presbyterian Church
Takoma Park MD
please come!

[BeFree]

3. Welcome to DU, matt

Wished I could make your talk. The truth must be told.

[jmcgowanjm]

4. I wish I could, mattshortridge

Hey, would you ask him about Alberta's -bitumen v gas for
export -situation?

Thanx,
James

[happyslug]

7. No, This is NATURAL GAS not Oil

The upcoming Oil production peak AND the upcoming Natural Gas shortage are inter-related but two different problems.

First peak oil is when world wide oil production peaks and than starts to drop. We will be pumping oil for another 100 years BUT whenever peak oil hits, demand will exceed supply and that will be a permanent situation. On the other hand OIL will still be around, its price will go up but we will still have some oil (through less and less each year till it is all used in about 100 years).

The upcoming Natural Gas shortage is different, unlike oil Natural Gas is a gas and as a Gas each well produces its maximum volume until it is empty (Oil is a liquid and a liquid's production starts up slow than increase till it peaks and than drops, Oil follows a bell curve it its production life).

Thus the problem with Natural gas is once each well is out it is out, you can not come back to it for years after peak production and get some more out of it. With Natural Gas you produce than you cap.

Just like Oil, Natural gas worldwide follows more or less the same pattern as most of its wells, but while Oil is a Bell shape production curve, Natural Gas is a cliff. That is what we are running into right now for Natural Gas, more and More wells are NO longer producing and are thus closing down. We have less well coming on line (and the tend to be smaller fields so they are consumed quicker than the older wells).

Peak oil is a bad enough a problem, the upcoming Natural Gas cliff is worse.

One side affect, the biggest remaining pools of Natural Gas are in the former Soviet Union (FSU) and Iran, both of which are connected by pipeline to Europe. The US has been using Canadian Natural Gas to supplement its own but if it wants nay more Natural gas it has to import form the same area (Nigeria has some also but shipping from Africa to the US has the same problems as Iran and FSU to the US).

One of the problem of natural gas is that the best way to transport it is by pipeline. Unlike Oil (which is a liquid) shipping by ship is much more costly for natural Gas than through a pipeline. The main reason for this is to ship by Ship, you MUST liquidity the Gas, which takes the energy of about 1/3 of the Natural gas being Liquidized (The process is by Compression). An additional cost is that the compressed gas has to be kept in heavy duty containers to keep it from escaping. These containers increase the weight of the shipping vessel and with that increased weight the cost to move the ship.

One of the advantages Europe has over the US is it can get its Natural Gas by pipeline NOT ship. Thus Europe's costs for USING Natural Gas is going to be lower than the future use of Natural Gas in the US. This was one of the problem with the Kyoto Treaty, Europe knew it could use Natural Gas while the US best alternative to Peak oil is Coal.

For more information see:
http://www.peakoil.net/

This site is run by Geologists who have concern about peak oil, as opposed to the survivilist types worried about a Government take over.

[brokensymmetry]

5. Ouch.

I've started reading up on peak oil - Klare's Resource Wars - and it looks bad. Mission Control, we have a problem....

[KayLaw]

6. Disaster preparations

I've only begun to learn about this serious problems and have been reading different websites, including those dealing with self-reliance, preparation for disasters, survivalism, etc. I've noticed a lot of them - well, how shall I put it - hosted by people I can't identify with? A lot of anti-Clinton/gun-obsessed people I'd rather not know.

Anyone know any friendlier survival/self-reliance sites out there?:hi:

[happyslug]

8. Just remember some common sense rules

First, you can NOT help your fellow man unless you are secure (This is Masloff's Hierarchy of Needs, Safety Needs MUST be meet before Social Needs can be meet).

Second, a complete breakdown of Society will NOT happen, things will change (Cars will disappear, the speed of that disappearance depends of when and how fast oil disappears).

Third, 150 years ago man survived without oil, that is NOT that long in Human Experience nor that long in memory (Just last year the last Civil War Vetern's Widowed passed away, so almost everyone today lived during the same period of a person who family was DIRECTLY affected by the Civil War and that was 150 years ago).

Fourth remember Masloff's Hierarchy of Needs, it is your guidelines on what you WILL do if one of your needs are is short supply. You can NOT do a higher need if a lower need is in short supply. Most people on this borad are ar level 4 and 5, but in time of crisis 1, 2 and 3 are what are in short supply AND YOU MUST PROVIDE THEM FOR YOURSELF.

Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs:

1. Biological and Physiological needs - air, food, drink, shelter, warmth, sex, sleep, etc.

2. Safety needs - protection from elements, security, order, law, limits, stability, etc.

3. Belongingness and Love needs - work group, family, affection, relationships, etc.

4. Esteem needs - self-esteem, achievement, mastery, independence, status, dominance, prestige, managerial responsibility, etc.

5. Self-Actualisation needs - realising personal potential, self-fulfillment, seeking personal growth and peak experiences.