Brazilian tropical disturbance

[phantom power]

The season's second South Atlantic tropical/sub-tropical disturbance has formed off of the coast of Brazil today. The disturbance formed from the remains of a cold-core low, which sat over warm waters of 27 degrees C long enough to start acquiring tropical characteristics. We saw this same behavior this past hurricane season with the Greek storms Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta. The disturbance is mostly just a swirl of low clouds, but has seen two bursts of deep convection today. The most recent burst of convection, seen in the satellite photo below, formed in a spiral band well removed from the center. Early this morning, a more impressive burst of deep convection formed near the storm's center, but was quickly ripped away by strong westerly upper-level winds.

(...)

So, the academic question to ask is, does this second tropical system of the year off the coast of Brazil show that climate change is affecting the Atlantic? Only one hurricane and two tropical depressions have been observed in the South Atlantic since 1970, when accurate tracking methods became available with the advent of weather satellites. There is usually too much wind shear to allow a tropical cyclone to form, and the South Atlantic lacks an active "Intertropical Convergence Zone" (ITCZ)--that stormy band of weather that stretches along the Equator and acts as a source region for many of the disturbances that grow into Northern Atlantic hurricanes. With Hurricane Catarina of March 2004, another tropical depression in January 2004, a "near miss" tropical cyclone February 24 of this year, and now another tropical or subtropical system trying to form in the South Atlantic today, it is quite possible that climate change might be to blame. It may also be that we are seeing an active period in the South Atlantic that has a long cycle, and last repeated itself before satellites were around. Given the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) that affects hurricane activity in the North Atlantic, it is reasonable to think we might see a similar pattern in the South Atlantic.

In either case, I believe is it time that the NHC considered adopting a naming system for the South Atlantic. Had today's system intensified into a tropical storm, it would not have been given a name, since there is no naming system in place for the South Atlantic Ocean. Given the current trends we're seeing, it would be no surprise if we saw more tropical systems here in the next few years.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=320&tstamp=200603

[hatrack]

1. Very interesting - thanks, Phantom Power!

:toast:

[Dead_Parrot]

2. Naming system?

Sadly, he's probably right. This is going to get worse before it gets better, methinks...

[phantom power]

3. I have my own naming system ready to go.

"Damn..."
"Holy Crap!"
"Oh Shit!"
"Fucking Hell!"
"Fuck A Duck!"
"Oh Fuck Me!"
"We're All Fucked"


I think I'll have to recycle these names somehow.

[Dead_Parrot]

4. LOL

Shall we take open a book on how long before SATS "Holy Fuck Would You Look At That!" wipes out downtown Rio?

I've got dibs on 2009...

[Coastie for Truth]

5. Interesting

I got out my copy of Stull, "Meteorology for Engineers" - just wonder what effect the "Coriolis Factor" has as the storms move North (or South) across the Equator.

But I think we will see a longer season, and more severe storms as the oceans heat up. Just flows out of the Partial Dif Eq's.

[phantom power]

6. I've always assumed that a storm vortex would be stable...

once it got started, even at the equator. Maybe we'll all get to see what happens in real life.

[Dead_Parrot]

7. The gospel according to Wikipedia...

...says that they don't usually cross the equator - Corrolis effects will push them towards the poles.

I suspect if they did cross they'd keep spinning the same way, since most of the power (once they're up and running) is from heat: I'd expect them to weaken quite a bit however.

I'm sure we'll find out first hand before long, though.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone

[Coastie for Truth]

8. Sounds about right

Many many years ago I took a course in Meteorology - using something similar to Stull's book (lots of Partial Differential Equations - this was in the days before PC's).

But I do remember two medieval tortures (in a league with pulling out fingernails and water boarding)-

1) Vector Partial Differential Equations,
2) Coriolis Partial Differential Equations.

(Both of which Max Mayfield used in his grad school work on tornadoes - he is a bright guy - and except for the Oklahoma accent he really reminds me of my HS physics teacher).

[Dead_Parrot]

9. Argh! Partial differential equations!

I'll be having nightmares all night, now. Thanks a bunch. :scared: