Computer Model Pegged Sunday Tornadoes 8 Days Out, Sees More Coming

[hatrack]

An experimental long-range storm forecasting program accurately predicted last weekend's massive outbreak of severe weather almost eight days before it happened. ow that same program indicates a similar weather pattern may be developing for this weekend.

"It appears we could be setting up for the same thing on Sunday," said Joseph Schaefer, director of the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla.

"We're seeing a warm front and cold front merging together in extreme northeast New Mexico, and that's sure what it looked like with you guys before all hell broke loose last weekend," Schaefer said. He said it's too early to accurately predict tornadic weather on Sunday. But with each passing day, the long-range forecast will become clearer.

Dave Gaedes, science and operations officer at the Springfield National Weather Service office, said he'll be watching the long-range predictions and refining local forecasts as more data comes in. "We don't want to scare people," Gaedes said. "We'll be looking for consistencies in our forecast models. But it does appear we could have some severe weather Sunday night into Monday."

EDIT

http://www.news-leader.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060315/NEWS01/603150362

[Dead_Parrot]

1. Sounds like fun.

In a I'm-SO-glad-I-don't-live-there kind of way.

[phantom power]

2. The new world is coming. For all of us.

[Dead_Parrot]

7. Not for me...

...I'm special. :silly:

[EST]

4. We had something like 90 tornados, buzzing 'round!

I held my breath a lot and stayed near the basement. Two nights of that was sure exciting. (I am fairly near Mt Vernon)

[Dead_Parrot]

5. rather you than me...

... a bit too exciting for my taste. :) Glad you got through OK!

[hatrack]

6. 113 reported tornadoes in Missouri ALONE

That's one-third of an average annual NATIONAL total in one state in one day.

It was wall-to-wall sirens on Sunday. I've never seen anything like it.

[Dead_Parrot]

9. That is, I must say, some pretty fucked up weather.

I'm beginning to wonder if "day after tomorrow" was as big a load of crap as I first thought... :)

[hatrack]

10. Hey, LOVE your sig line!

I've been feeling a lot like that lately . . . :toast:

[Dead_Parrot]

18. I find it saves time

This way, I don't have to type it out after each post. :(

[phantom power]

15. DaT's dirty little secret was that it got a lot of things right.

If you tossed out the three superstorms, and had it all happen over something like 5 years instead of a week, I think you might have something that resembles our future.

All right, and they had the north atlantic current flowing backwards. Can't think of any good excuse for that.

[Dead_Parrot]

19. If we picked holes in the science

we'd all be here till next week. :) But yeah, drag the timescale out by a magnitude or three and they may not have been as wrong as I'd like to think...

[MuseRider]

11. Watching the radar

safely here in Topeka was truly colorful. The continual flashing of new warning was amazing. I don't remember ever seeing anything quite like that.

[naturalselection]

12. I hear ya!

Sunday from 2pm to 11pm the sirens in town were on constantly!
I have lived all my life in the midwest (34 years) and have never experienced anything like that in my life. I can honestly say I was never more close to the basement as I was all day Sunday.

[madmom]

14. 129 is what our news said...n/t

[EST]

16. I'm sure you're right!

I have been a$$ deep in other matters and still have the 90 they announced saturday night in my brain. Is this weather or climate?

Looks like another anxious weekend!

By the way, thanks to all who were wishing and praying for us, then, and are happy we survived! Although I am not a praying person, the warm fuzzies you've created are worth the craziness we endured.

:toast: :toast: :hi: :hi:

[MuseRider]

3. I hope their predictions are

a little closer to correct than their recall.

Topeka's Indian Hill 1965?

"A good example is a place called Indian Hill outside of Topeka, Kansas," Schaefer said. "People thought it supposedly protected Topeka from tornadoes until one came over that hill in 1965 and killed about 50 people."

Sorry, Burnett's Mound 1966 16 deaths

"Before a June 1966 tornado struck the city, killing 16 people, local legend had it that Burnett's Mound would somehow prevent tornadoes from hitting Topeka." http://cjonline.com/stories/061704/loc_siren.shtml

[fasttense]

8. Is it time to pay the piper already? I thought we had a few years before

the planet started to take payment for our irresponsible destruction of this planets habitats? Maybe now maybe later, but some one is going to pay for this mess.

[phantom power]

17. Closer to now, than later, says I.

[MuseRider]

13. Should be really interesting since we are expecting snow

here on Saturday and Sunday.

[rfkrfk]

20. after the fact 'predictions', means exactly what?

OK, who is interested in my prediction for the 2004 Super Bowl?

enough monkeys, enough typewriters, you get anything you want

[phantom power]

21. The model predicted it 8 days *before* it happened.

However, weather and climate models are often run to "post-dict" known events, as a test of the model's usefulness. Since they are still testing this model, I bet they are doing some of that too.

[Dead_Parrot]

22. another example - climatechange.net

Spends most of it's time running "forecasts" for 1900-2000 (or thereabouts). The advantage being, if you get the right answer at the end of it, you know the model is set up correctly. You can then run a "future" forecast and have a degree of confidence in the results.

If anyone has a mathematical model that, given the 2000 - 2003 season results, produces an accurate "forecast" for the 2004 superbowl I'd love to hear from them. Before next February, preferably... :evilgrin:

[rfkrfk]

23. they don't tell you about the ones that don't work. .n/t

[bananas]

24. The current predictions are here, updated daily

The predictions for the next 1, 2, 3, 4-8 days,
also an "Experimental Enhanced Thunderstorm Outlook"
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/