Forecaster Warns 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season Could Rival 2005

[Strelnikov_]

Has Dr. Gray (Colorado State) retired?

Forecaster Warns 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season Could Rival 2005
Intelligence Press Friday, March 03, 2006
http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=29978

Looking at the 2006 Atlantic season, Weather 2000 said its research, along with atmospheric and oceanographic parameters, are pointing towards a lot of activity. The company said it would not be surprised to see 15-22 named storms, eight-13 hurricanes and four-seven intense hurricanes.

The Colorado State forecasting team, which is now led by Philip J. Klotzbach, is a little more conservative in its prediction. The team's 2006 Atlantic hurricane outlook calls for 17 named tropical storms (9.6 is average) of which nine would be Hurricanes (5.9 is average) of which five would be intense hurricanes (2.3 is average).

. . .

Despite Hurricane Katrina's significant path of destruction on and off shore, Weather 2000 said things could be worse. The forecasting firm pointed out that not a single hurricane made landfall last year as a Category 4 or Category 5 storm. In addition, it has been decades since a direct hurricane hit has been made on major hubs, such as Houston/Galveston, with only three hurricanes of Category 4/5 striking anywhere from Brownsville, TX to Fort Myers, FL since 1950. "Due to atmospheric parameters and SST projections, our research concludes that there are above-average odds that a hurricane will make landfall in the U.S. as a Category 4/5 in 2006," Weather 2000 said.

The company also warned that the Mid-Atlantic coastal zone, even though no hurricane since 1950 has ever directly struck between the Outer Banks of North Carolina and New York City, could be in danger as well. "The region has been impacted by storms traversing up the Atlantic states (i.e. Floyd), but time will eventually run out on avoiding direct primary landfalls (i.e. the 1938 NYC Hurricane)," Weather 2000 said. "Due to steering mechanisms and SST projections, our research concludes that there are high odds that at least one hurricane will make landfall along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Coast in 2006."

[marmar]

1. Well at least we know we can't count on FEMA to respond...

:scared: :scared: :scared:

[babylonsister]

2. I totally expected this; we went out yesterday and bought

plywood for our windows after getting scared out of our gourds last summer, after Katrina and for Rita. We also have already bought plylocks. We will be ready as we can be.
And please, don't expect FEMA to help!

[murray hill farm]

3. What are plylocks?

i might want to get some..ha.

[babylonsister]

8. Plylock clips are an easy way to

put up plywood to cover your windows without nailing the wood in. Here's more info, and FYI, we bought a bunch of them on eBay!

http://hardware.hardwarestore.com/27-110-misc-constr-hardware/plylox-hurricane-window-clips-632832.aspx

[NNadir]

4. Dr. Gray spends much of his time "debunking" global climate change.

He doesn't believe it's real or involves human activity.

http://www.discover.com/issues/sep-05/departments/discover-dialogue/

Of course his prediction of the hurricane season of 2005 was off by the distance you can fling a frisbee over an expanse of floating bodies in a bayou experiencing 130 mph winds.

At the start of the 2005 hurricane season he predicted 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes with winds exceeding 110 mph.

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/hurricane/2005-05-31-Gray-hurricaneforecast_x.htm

The actual 2005 results were 27 named storms, 15 hurricanes, 7 category 3 or greater hurrincanes and 3 category 5 hurricanes.

Three of the 6 most intense hurricanes ever recorded occurred in 2005.

Natural variation.

Oh well, who's counting. After all Dr. Gray is famous for his predictions. He's a celebrity, almost like Britney Spears.

Dr. Gray is so good at his predictive skills that he should go to work for the Department of Defense, in the "greeting us with roses" department.

[Strelnikov_]

9. And This Guy Is A Serious Scientist?

Q: You don’t believe global warming is causing climate change?

Gray: No. If it is, it is causing such a small part that it is negligible. I’m not disputing that there has been global warming. There was a lot of global warming in the 1930s and ’40s, and then there was a slight global cooling from the middle ’40s to the early ’70s. And there has been warming since the middle ’70s, especially in the last 10 years. But this is natural, due to ocean circulation changes and other factors. It is not human induced.

Q:That must be a controversial position among hurricane researchers.

Gray: Nearly all of my colleagues who have been around 40 or 50 years are skeptical as hell about this whole global-warming thing. But no one asks us. If you don’t know anything about how the atmosphere functions, you will of course say, “Look, greenhouse gases are going up, the globe is warming, they must be related.” Well, just because there are two associations, changing with the same sign, doesn’t mean that one is causing the other.

Why would they call them greenhouse gases in the first place if the concentration did not effect heat retention? Sounds to me like Dr. Gray has an agenda.

[phantom power]

10. In BushCo's world, Michael Crichton is a serious scientist.

Any week now, I'm expecting to read about Bush interviewing Dr. Bunsen Honeydew.

[Warpy]

5. I hate to say it, but it would be a good thing

Let me explain. During my last stay in Florida, I decided to go to the beach and stick my toe in the chilly Atlantic for old time's sake. When I got there I found a solid wall of high rise time share condos between the beach front road and the water line and couldn't get NEAR the ocean. I couldn't even see the water anywhere along the "beachfront" road. It was a real shock, since I'd remembered that beach as one of Florida's unspoiled beaches just 10 years earlier.

I've been talking to people up and down the coast, and they confirm that the wall of condos extends pretty much all the way up and down with brief breaks for industrial areas, enclaves of the rich and powerful, or swampland.

This is insane, folks. Nobody was EVER meant to build anything like that on such fragile real estate! Having a series of storms come along and either knock the wall down or make it completely unattractive as property is just what we need.

The shoreline is completely overbuilt and what should be a national treasure open to all of us has been privatized by and for yuppies buying time shares. It really is a sign of something very wrong with this country and it needs to go.

[Delphinus]

11. Warpy,

that's such a sad picture you relate - the condos taking over the shoreline.

I agree that it's a sign ... just one more ... of something very wrong with this country. {sigh}

[OneBlueSky]

6. the Mid-Atlantic Coast? . . . hey, that's me! . . . n/t

.

[tenasscity]

7. It needs doing NOW.

Whatever needs to be done for the hurricane season in 2006, it needs to be done now. I can't imagine trying to build a life back up--esp. with kids in school--and trying to camp out there in their homes in NOLA, as best they can.

However, for those willing to brave it, they need to arrange food, water, and transportation out of the city, and/or some way to take a census when they do leave--and certainly for those who must stay--so that people can be accounted for. I don't know if that means Red Cross, Salvation Army, parish churches, block captains--whatever it takes--but the people need to start arranging it NOW--especially if they have to stay in the city (for that, I sure hope the mayor is laying some plans carefully), they are going to need some help.

The hurricane season will be back all too soon--and I REALLY want those people to be SAFE!:hug: