Transport Experts Have Seen The Future, And It's Got Pedals

[Strelnikov_]

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/newspaper/0,,174-2011758,00.html

Link to full report, by Foresight, a UK science think tank, in this case addressing intelligent transport systems.

http://www.foresight.gov.uk/Intelligent%20Infrastructure%20Systems/Reports%20and%20Publications/Intelligent_Infrastructure_Futures/the_scenarios_2055.pdf

Senarios -
Perpetual Motion
Urban Colonies
Tribal Trading
Good Intentions


Senario 3 - Tribal Trading

Tribal Trading describes a world that has been through a sharp and savage energy shock. The world has stabilised, but only after a global recession has left millions unemployed. The global economic system is severely damaged and infrastructure is falling into disrepair.
Long-distance travel is a luxury that few can afford and, for most people, the world has shrunk to their own community. Cities have declined and local food production and services have increased. Canals and sea-going vessels carry freight: the rail network is worthwhile only for high-value long-distance cargoes and trips. There are still some cars, but local transport is typically by
bike and by horse.

There are local conflicts over resources: lawlessness and mistrust are high. The state does what it can – but its power has been eroded.
The world of Tribal Trading is overwhelmed by shocks, initiated by a sharp energy shock and global competition for resources. In consequence, intelligent infrastructure is not on the agenda. It seems to be a world of opportunities not grasped and challenges ignored until too late. Some places fare better than others, but universally the focus is on making the most of the resources available, particularly locally, and being patient. Recycling is not just a good idea but an economic necessity. Technology is limited to that which is robust and able to cope with fluctuations in energy supply, and legacy infrastructure is patched and patched again. Society starts to recover eventually, but it is a long hard path.

Timeline: Tribal Trading
2055
2052 Final commercial aircraft flight
2045 Regional conflicts over natural resources continue to increase
2043 UK population stands at 42 million, according to best estimates
2040
2032 West Midlands sets up regional borders to collect transport revenue
2028 Asian flooding permanently displaces 2 million
2026 UK banking system collapses
2025
2022 UK GDP falls to 80% of 2005 level
2018 Power cuts and outages are routine
2015 Oil reaches $200 a barrel
2011 The year of Peak Oil
2005

[pitohui]

1. club of rome anyone?

we've heard too many of the scare stories over the years

[Dead_Parrot]

2. Thanks...

Looks like a fascinating read.

[aztc]

3. Pedibus

A mass transit solution powered by the passengers that ride the pedibus. Like a pedicab, the pedibus is designed to carry a driver and one or more passengers but with several important differences and options.

1) A pedibus allows passengers to contribute to the motive power, current offerings use simple bicycle cranks that all turn at the same time and are connected by chains and sprockets to the drive wheels. Technology offers many options for improvements on this simple concept.
2) Technology options to use flywheel or battery and electric motor motive power may be considered more feasible due to economies of scale.
a. Flywheels store energy and dissipate it through a throttle controlled by the operator. As load is added to the pedibus, each rider contributes to power generation to add energy to the flywheel, which in turn is driving the pedibus via torque converter.
b. Battery and electric motor systems that include regenerative power via vehicle braking and human energy input in a similar fashion as the wheel system.
3) The multiple seats present a revenue opportunity and regular routes could attract a loyal rider base.
4) Economies of scale will allow the vehicle to be weatherproof and comfortable.
5) The interactive experience of contributing energy directly to the transportation and sharing that with fellow riders will build community.

A prototype could be assembled and tested for under $10,000 using existing materials and foregoing extensive weatherproofing and passenger comfort. This prototype could be used as a test bed and demonstration vehicle for the next generation pedibus.