Here is a table listing all of the world's nuclear reactors:
http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/reactors.htmAccording to the table, the 2005 demand for uranium was 68,357 metric tons. Most reactors (excluding special types like CANDU reactors which use natural uranium or breeders that used highly enriched fuel) use 3% enriched uranium. Natural uranium contains 0.7% fissionable U-235. Therefore - viewed in a simplified manner - most reactors require a 2.3% "boost." This means that nuclear reactors world wide require about 1570 MT of fissionable isotopes, usually U-235, but Pu-239 is also suitable.
The world inventory of highly enriched uranium and
all of its plutonium, including civilian plutonium, is 3750 MT. The portion of this material designated for military use is about 3 times as large as I estimated; it is 1880 MT.
http://www.isis-online.org/global_stocks/end2003/summary_global_stocks.pdfThus the world's inventory of isolated fissionable material (the military stocks) is sufficient to run the world's nuclear reactors for more than two years. Were plutonium recovered from spent fuel, this quantity could easily be extended to fuel the world's reactors for 4 to 5 years. Note that, in the putative case where this were to happen, the fissioning of the stocks would lead to the creation of additional plutonium representing about 90% of the inventory charged into the reactors. Thus one would in theory need to add only 157 metric tons of new plutonium to the reactors for each charge.
If one contemplates this matter, it becomes immediately clear that the world's
existing nuclear reactors could be made to operate for a number of years without any additional uranium mining whatsoever.
Once a reactor is charged with fuel, they typically run for 1 to 2 years without refueling.
This analysis is somewhat simplistic, still were humanity to operate the same number reactors as it does now (actually the number will increase substantially over the next decade or so), there is sufficient fissionable material already in existence - with no additional enrichment - to operate the world's reactors for 1 to 2 decades. In the case where thorium were to replace the depleted uranium removed from the reactors to a substantial extent, this period could be extended for many decades more.