Earth: Ground Zero For The Permafrost Bomb

[wtmusic]

"I’ve long been a proponent of the carbon budget way of viewing our climate change predicament. By focusing on the total amount of CO2 (or CO2 equivalent other greenhouse gases) we can emit from this point forward, I think it greatly simplifies the “feeds and speeds” without introducing any inaccuracies or openings for misunderstanding. One problem that any calculation runs into, whether seeking our total remaining carbon budget or our yearly allotment as we try to reduce emissions enough (e.g. 80% over 1990 levels by 2050), is that we have to make some pretty large assumptions about the contribution of positive feedbacks. Those knock-on effects, such as the albedo flip from shrinking Arctic ice or drought converting the Amazon rain forest into desert, can throw your carefully crafted calculation into the nearest recycle bins faster than you can say, “permafrost isn’t permanent???”.

Permafrost, in fact, is at the center of a terrifying research finding that up to 30% of the Russian permafrost could be gone by 2050.

As Joe Romm points out in that linked article, the current estimate is that the world’s permafrost contains 1.5 trillion tons of carbon. (Please read that carefully. Trillion, not billion or mere million, and carbon, not CO2 or methane. This number is large enough that it should terrify any informed follower of climate issues.)"

http://theenergycollective.com/lougrinzo/62581/earth-ground-zero-permafrost-bomb?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=The+Energy+Collective+%28all+posts%29

[phantom power]

1. oopsie

[glinda]

2. Had a University Class in 1981 that told of this. Where has everyone been?

[RC]

3. Mother Earth is gearing up to go into a fever to rid itself of a nasty bug.

US.

[stuntcat]

9. a fever..

yah, sounds right.. I'm only sad for the rest of the animals, the ones who didn't cause any of this.

[truebrit71]

10. I think they will have an easier time of adapting than the hairless apes that caused the problem...

..

[GliderGuider]

4. It's OK. By then we'll have lots of wind turbines, to blow all that methane away.

Wait, what?

[GliderGuider]

5. Seriously, that's one hell of a sobering article.

I don't agree with geohacking, and never have. But if he's right about permafrost (and by extension clathrates) producing an order of magnitude more GHG than we already do, and for multiple decades, then someone is going to decide that geohacking is the only way out.

This quote from the end of the article really struck me:

This scenario is a perfect example of why I’m convinced that not only are we in almost unimaginably deep trouble, but that virtually all attempts to talk about climate change without resorting to even the simple math I used above do more harm than good. You can search your thesaurus all day and not find the right words to describe the magnitude of the greenhouse gas flows or the implications of their knock on effects; sometimes nothing communicates better than a four-function calculator, Google, and a rudimentary understanding of the speeds and feeds.

I've maintained for the last 5 years that the hole we are in is so deep we can only begin to comprehend it by doing the numbers.

[truebrit71]

6. Holy fuck...are those numbers right?

I knew the whole 'permafrost is melting' thing was very, very bad news, but dayum....

At what point does the feedback loop kick into high gear? Once the Arctic is completely ice-free? When Greenland is 1/3 or 1/2 melted? At some point the roller-coaster is going to REALLY accelerate...any guesses as to when??

[NickB79]

7. So, a 7 degrees C rise by 2100 is the LOW end now?

Christ.

[hatrack]

8. And not all of that 1.5 trillion tons will be in the form of carbon, either . . .

Even if only 10%, say, enters the atmosphere as methane, that's the equivalent of 3.75 trillion tons of C, given that methane's roughly 25X as effective as carbon at trapping heat from longwave radiation.

Or, as was posted above, "Ooopsie!"

[Javaman]

11. Anyone paying attention, knew about this...

this is why my doom and gloom attitude about not fixing the climate change problem as a basis in reality. It's based on the permafrost issue.

we are in such deep shit, it's up to my eyeballs and I'm standing on your shoulders.

[wtmusic]

12. It's not looking very promising.

All I can do is try to get more people to pay attention.

[GliderGuider]

13. Yep. When I read about the permafrost I realized we'd already lost the race. nt

:shrug:

[Bigmack]

14. Ah the cold comfort of OLD AGE......

NEVER thought I'd think of death as an escape..... Ms Bigmack