According to MIT researchers, the most recent global climate report fails to capture the reality of the changing Arctic seascape. The researchers said the most recent global climate report fails to capture trends in Arctic sea-ice thinning and drift, and in some cases substantially underestimates these trends.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report estimates that an ice-free Arctic summer by the year 2100. However, Pierre Rampal, a postdoc in the Department of Earth, Atmosphere, and Planetary Sciences (EAPS), and colleagues say it may happen several decades earlier.
The IPCC issues reports that represent an average of many findings, and is sometimes criticized for forecasting according to the "lowest common denominator" of climate research. The team found that the forecasts were significantly off after comparing IPCC models with actual data. Rampal says part of the problem may be inadequate modeling of mechanical forces acting on and within the ice in the Arctic basin.
According to Rampal, the IPCC models have largely focused on temperature fluctuations, which are one way to lose or gain ice. “If you make a mistake at this level of the model, you can expect that you are missing something very important,” Rampal said in a press release.
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http://www.redorbit.com/news/science/2094440/mit_climate_report_fails_to_capture_reality_of_thinning_ice/index.html?source=r_science
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