Germany's nuclear phase-out will cause UK, Spain and Italy emissions to fall

[bananas]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jun/22/germany-nuclear-uk-emissions

Germany's nuclear phase-out will cause UK emissions to fall, report says
Reliance on fossil fuels will raise price of carbon permits, prompting switch to gas which produces fewer emissions

Fiona Harvey, environment correspondent
guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 22 June 2011 13.02 BST

<snip>

Germany's own carbon emissions will rise, because the phase-out of nuclear power between now and 2022 will force an increased reliance on fossil fuels, such as coal and gas.

But this in turn is likely to push up the price of carbon permits within the European Union's emissions trading scheme – by about €5 (£4.60) a tonne, according to research to be published on Wednesday by Thomson Reuters Point Carbon, an analyst company. If that happens, generators in many countries will switch from coal-fired power generation to gas, which produces less carbon, predicts Daniel Jefferson, author of the research.

<snip>

Jefferson said the UK, Spain and Italy were prime candidates to switch more generation from coal to an even greater reliance on gas. "In those countries where there is scope for a fuel switch from coal to gas, that is what we would expect to see happen," he said.

He said the use of renewables was also likely to increase as a result of the changes.

<snip>

Gernmany is reducing the risk of another Fukushima nightmare and accelerating the growth of renewables without increasing carbon emissions.

[RC]

1. So what this says is that switching from nuclear, which has no carbon output to

natural gas, which does, carbon emissions will decrease?
If you believe this, then you gotta believe in the tooth fairy and the Easter Bunny.

What else do you believe that ain't so? I smell propaganda. Coal is cheaper than natural gas in many parts of the world.

[bananas]

2. No, switching from coal to natural gas decreases emissions.

Not sure why you're confused by this.

[RC]

3. Maybe the shutting down of the carbon free nuclear power plants, ya think?

[The Croquist]

4. Emissions in the UK, Spain & Italy will fall not Germany's

Germany's emissions will rise as will cost of energy. Here are the parts of the article that bananas snipped:

The UK's greenhouse gas emissions are likely to fall and the cost of carbon emissions for industry will rise as a result of Germany's decision to shut down its nuclear power plants, a new analysis has shown.

And:

<"German nuclear closures will put pressure on the carbon price," he told the Guardian. "That means it will be more economic to run gas [fired power plants> than coal."

Current prices for EU carbon permits are about €15 a tonne.

Later in the article:

Germany's decision to phase out nuclear power, over safety fears in the wake of the Fukushima incident in Japan was announced by chancellor Angela Merkel last month. The country plans to increase its use of renewables and push for greater energy efficiency, but its use of fossil fuel power is also likely to rise. Point Carbon estimates that the result will be an increase in German emissions of 493 megatonnes in total by 2020.

The Germans are expected to increase their carbon emissions by 493 megatons per year. At todays rate that works out 7,395,000,000.00 pounds (11,812,000,000 dollars) a year or 363 pounds (580 dollars) a year. That's assuming that carbon credits won't rise or that fossil fuel costs won't increase.

That ought to help their economy!

[Yo_Mama]

5. Given the price of carbon certificates in Europe

I don't think the carbon certificates will affect the matter much one way or another.

The carbon costs are utterly trivial compared to the investment costs and input costs (either way Germany and the others go).

Also Germany will rely more on fossil fuel, but the plan is to shut down some older coal plants and substitute newer ones that burn more efficiently - like Datteln:
http://www.germanenergyblog.de/?p=6583

http://www.powergenworldwide.com/index/display/articledisplay/0426953991/articles/powergenworldwide/Business/Policy/2011/06/EU-carbon-trading-turmoil-boosts-plant-profits.html

[FBaggins]

6. Careful... Kris will show up any minute now to tell you that you're wrong.

Germany's decision isn't going to "force an increased reliance on fossil fuels, such as coal and gas" you see?

He's also not likely to be happy with the (pretty obvious) determination that they'll switch to gas rather than renewables.

Of course... the article also makes a leap of faith that may not come to fruition. Yes, Germany will be using lots more coal/gas in the next decade... and yes that means that carbon credits will become more expensive...

... but that doesn't necessarily mean that other nations will shift their production. They may just decide that they aren't too happy with Germany's decision costing them money when they aren't the ones who made the decision... and drop out of the carbon trading agreements entirely.

[Yo_Mama]

7. But Europe as a whole has invested in a lot of renewables

Which would tend to drive down the cost of the carbon credits, surely?

Then the efficiency initiative will definitely cut the cost.