New Report: How Efficiency Can Increase Energy Consumption
Today Breakthrough Institute releases "Energy Emergence," a new report finding extensive evidence and a strong expert consensus that a large amount of the energy savings from below-cost energy efficiency are eroded by demand rebound, and that in some cases the rebound exceeds the savings, resulting in increased energy consumption from efficiency, known as backfire.
Posted by Breakthrough Staff on February 17, 2011 at 10:34 AM
There is a large expert consensus and strong evidence that below-cost energy efficiency measures drive a rebound in energy consumption that erodes much and in some cases all of the expected energy savings, concludes
http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/Energy_Emergence.pdf">a new report by the Breakthrough Institute. "
http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/Energy_Emergence.pdf">Energy Emergence: Rebound and Backfire as Emergent Phenomena" covers over 96 published journal articles and is one of the largest reviews of the peer-reviewed journal literature to date. (Readers in a hurry can download Breakthrough's
http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/Rebound%20Briefing_2_16_11.pptx">PowerPoint demonstration here or
http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/Energy_Emergence.pdf">download the full paper here.)
In
http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2011/02/founders_statement_on_energy_e.shtml">a statement accompanying the report, Breakthrough Institute founders Ted Nordhaus and Michael Shellenberger wrote, "Below-cost energy efficiency is critical for economic growth and should thus be aggressively pursued by governments and firms. However, it should no longer be considered a direct and easy way to reduce energy consumption or greenhouse gas emissions." The lead author of the new report is Jesse Jenkins, Breakthrough's Director of Energy and Climate Policy; Nordhaus and Shellenberger are co-authors.
The findings of the new report are significant because governments have in recent years relied heavily on energy efficiency measures as a means to cut greenhouse gases. "I think we have to have a strong push toward energy efficiency,"
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/29/us/politics/29climate-text.html?pagewanted=5">said President Obama recently. "We know that's the low-hanging fruit, we can save as much as 30 percent of our current energy usage without changing our quality of life." While there is robust evidence for rebound in academic peer-reviewed journals, it has largely been ignored by major analyses, including the widely cited
https://solutions.mckinsey.com/ClimateDesk/default.aspx">2009 McKinsey and Co. study on the cost of reducing greenhouse gases.
The idea that increased energy efficiency can increase energy consumption at the macro-economic level strikes many as a new idea, or paradoxical, but it was first observed in 1865 by British economist
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Stanley_Jevons">William Stanley Jevons, who pointed out that Watt's more efficient steam engine and other technical improvements that increased the efficiency of coal consumption actually increased rather than decreased demand for coal. More efficient engines, Jevons argued, would increase future coal consumption by lowering the effective price of energy, thus spurring greater demand and opening up useful and profitable new ways to utilize coal. Jevons was proven right, and the reality of what is today known as "
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox">Jevons Paradox" has long been uncontroversial among economists.
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