Norway Projects 5% YOY Drop In Oil, NGL & Condensates In 2011 - Rebound Unlikely

[hatrack]

OSLO, Jan 10 (Reuters) - Norway's oil output is seen falling in 2011 and throughout the coming decade if no new big finds are made soon -- an unlikely prospect given recent discoveries and political reluctance to open up environmentally-sensitive areas. More modest finds are turning the Nordic country into an attractive place for small firms, such as Wintershall, BG or Lundin, rather than majors such as ExxonMobil or BP out hunting "elephant" fields.

Norwegian authorities will release their annual forecasts for the output of the world's fifth-largest exporter on Thursday, expected to show that oil production will fall for the tenth year in a row, while gas output will continue to rise. Estimates for undiscovered resources are also likely to be revised down due to disappointing discovery results last year and a warning in November by Norway that undiscovered gas estimates would likely be brought down this week. "At the moment the outlook is pretty poor," said John Olaisen, an analyst at broker Carnegie in Oslo.

Olaisen anticipated 2011 production for oil, NGL (natural gas liquids) and condensate to fall 5 percent year-on-year from 2.15 to 2.04 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe). "Exploration results over the last two to four years have been extremely poor. Production issues have been rising and decline rates have been higher than they have been."

Oil firms scouting the Barents and Norwegian Seas have hit dry wells or smaller-than-expected fields, most recently in August with Royal Dutch Shell's Gro find, which Norway had hoped would serve as a new gas hub.

EDIT

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE70610N20110110?rpc=401&feedType=RSS&feedName=rbssIndustryMaterialsUtilitiesNews&rpc=401