A Less Mighty Wind: Three reasons wind power could wane

[joshcryer]

Wind turbines wring energy out of a free-flowing fuel supply that may be losing some of its punch. Surface winds appear to be weakening across the Northern Hemisphere, including in the United States, Western Europe, and China—the world's top three markets for wind power. And climate change threatens to weaken them further during this century as faster warming over northern latitudes trims the temperature gradients that energize airflows.

China could be the hardest hit, according to modeling by University of Texas–Austin research scientist Diandong Ren in the November issue of the Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy. He projects a 4 to 12 percent decrease in wind speeds in China for the last three decades of the 21st century (compared to the corresponding decades of the 20th). Since the energy in wind increases with the cube of the wind speed, Ren estimates that the slower winds would trim power from Chinese turbines by at least 14 percent.

There is now little doubt that China's surface winds are already slowing. Independent analyses published in 2009 and 2010 found that recent readings from weather station anemometers were lower than those taken in the 1960s and 1950s. In both cases, the majority of Chinese stations reported slowing near-surface winds, and the largest declines occurred in the windiest regions—in the north, on the Tibetan Plateau, and along China's coastline.

Comparable stilling is occurring across the Northern Hemisphere, according to an October report by a team centered at France's Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et l'Environnement (LSCE). Their report in the journal Nature Geosciences found that winds slowed by 5 to 15 percent over almost all continental areas in the northern midlatitudes between 1979 and 2008.

http://spectrum.ieee.org/green-tech/wind/a-less-mighty-wind

Much more at link.

This is the problem with wind. It's not growing fast enough to have an appreciable effect on climate change, and by the time it does ... climate change will have made it inviable. We're going to have hundreds of wind farms that are just sitting there, generating little power, unless we make a buildout comparable to 300 Apollo's or 50 WWII's. :(

[wtmusic]

1. The buildout itself would generate more CO2 than it would save. nt

[Newest Reality]

2. While we can hope for some technological

energy savior to appear, the indications are that our way of life will have to change significantly. Nothing yet comes close to the energy that petroleum provides by ratio.

Now, considering that, we can begin to wonder more creatively whose lives will be impacted in a way that forces change out of necessity and what that has to do with inequity. When we generalize about the energy and resource crises that the world itself faces and the way that any true, (as opposed to contrived or capitalist) scarcity will be distributed, a picture begins to form.

We may consider the wealth grab to be purely a matter of amassing more power and satiating more greed. On the other hand, when you look at Peak Oil, water tables, and other resource-based critical mass events, it appears that accruing extreme wealth will, (left unabated) stand-out as an icon of a better chance of survival. Hence we see mostly boondoggles in energy and other sectors and also note the abandonment of the larger social structure that includes the "middle-class" and the growing underclass where the poor alredy dwell.

I know that was a an aside from wind technology and its problems, but these thoughts seem relative when you consider our reliance on energy and petroleum as the lifeblood of the current way of life.

[rucky]

3. This may be the ultimate irony.

[damntexdem]

4. A story of breaking wind?

Well, maybe if instead of complaining about China's wind-industry subsidies, the U.S. bought more of their product faster ...

[joshcryer]

5. There isn't enough metal extractable to build out wind as fast as we need.

We need new wind technologies with generators on the ground. Until they start building those enmasse, wind will remain a niche player.

[Javaman]

6. "could". nt

[GliderGuider]

7. China's wind capacity factor is declining

Down from 17% to 12% in 5 years How much of that decline is due to slowing wind?

Things that make you say Hmmm...

[joshcryer]

9. A lot of that is due to their poor siting, they have plenty of wind in the northern regions...

...but they decide to put the turbines where there are actually grids.

It'll bounce back eventually, but who knows how long.

[Fledermaus]

8. From the author of the original paper..."we need to tap the energy source earlier"

This means, he says, that with "everything else being the same, we need to invest in more wind turbines to gain the same amount of energy. Wind energy will still be plentiful and wind energy still profitable, but we need to tap the energy source earlier" -- before there is less to tap.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/11/101109095314.htm

This new plant will give the local grid the ability to absorb 10% more intermittent fluctuations from renewable sources.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=115x269164#269171

[joshcryer]

10. Yes, I agree.