Slushie!

[phantom power]

[joshcryer]

1. Fuck.

[Dogmudgeon]

2. And there's 61 days until September 15th

That's usually the approximate date when the melt stops and reverses.

--d!

[AtheistCrusader]

3. Can you post additional information with these images?

Like, what we are looking at, and what it ought to look like? I've seen progressions, but I look at that and could see how a passerby might think, 'oh most of it is at 100%, that's good right?'.

Need context.

[joshcryer]

4. Here's your context:

[AtheistCrusader]

5. THAT I can read.

The sat picture needs explanation though. This provides some of it, at least. Thank you.

[joshcryer]

16. The image is essentially a mix of both metrics, volume and extent.

What we are concerned about here on DU is that there is a major amount of fragmentation, with still up to two months of melt left in the season. Some of us on DU believe that we may be looking at a nearly ice free arctic, something human civilization has not likely seen.

[hatrack]

6. PIOMAS seems to be dragging ass . . . is it only a monthly update?

:shrug:

[joshcryer]

15. I noticed the same thing. Extent can be expected to fluctuate, especially when we have...

...a catastrophic collapse. Volume is undoubtedly down much further. I keep checking the site for volume now that I know where it is.

[emmadoggy]

46. The blue line just took another nose dive. nt

[emmadoggy]

9. Here's what it looked like on the same day in 1979..

[AtheistCrusader]

10. There we go.

Also, holy shit.

[XemaSab]

13. In the interests of full disclosure

they changed the color scheme of the images, so it's impossible to make a direct comparison.

[emmadoggy]

21. You know, I honestly just noticed that today.

Something didn't seem right to me as I was looking at them, and then it hit me that the color scale is different.

Thanks for pointing that out.

[hatrack]

7. Make mine lime!

:beer:

[Systematic Chaos]

11. I'm partial to blue raspberry myself.

But I think about now I'd rather just :puke:

[emmadoggy]

8. OH...MY...GOD.

:wow:

[Odin2005]

12. We are so, so screwed.

[pscot]

14. A succinct but elegant sumation

n/t

[joshcryer]

17. Anyone here doubt feedbacks now?

That dark ocean is going to absorb a heckofalot of heat.

[XemaSab]

18. Not to mention the fact

that all those floes are going to keep bouncing off each other like pinballs well after projected freeze-up. :o

[AtheistCrusader]

19. Is the ice melting due to

air temps above, or water temps from below?

If water temps, what is the source of the heat? Can we see ocean currents bringing warmer waters into the area? Buoy temp measurements? Obviously not under the ice itself (or maybe with bore holes and drop down a sensor), but how about leading up to the ice? Is the warm water coming from the Atlantic, Pacific, where?

I don't have a map of worldwide ocean currents.

[XemaSab]

20. The heat for melting typically comes from the ocean (as opposed to the air)

and warm water enters the arctic through the gulf stream, so the heat originates in the Caribbean.

The ice is very reflective, so sunlight hitting the ice doesn't produce much in the way of warming, but the water around the ice is much less reflective and will turn light into heat.

If too much ice melts, the 24-hour sunlight means that the water in the arctic will begin to heat directly, which would produce a feedback loop where the warm water melts the ice more, which produces more open water.

You're asking the right questions. :hi:

[Systematic Chaos]

22. One day of change and the difference is HUGH.

I'm series!

:scared:

There's like, almost nothing left up there with any integrity to speak of. Color me gobsmacked.

[emmadoggy]

23. WOWSERS. Not looking good. nt

[hatrack]

24. 7/22 - Blub, blub, blub - and two months still to go to minimum

At least it won't be boring.

[XemaSab]

25. I'm fascinated by the fact that it's not rotting from the outside in

it's just funktifying in place. Strange days.

[joshcryer]

26. Yeah, you'd think that the warmer melting water would be eating at the outside.

Whatever is causing it is quite something.

[OnlinePoker]

28. Seems like a lot more ice in place this year than 2007

yet the NSIDC Sea Ice Extent graph only shows it about 300,000 sq km above 2007. I don't know which data is more accurate, NSIDC or Cryosphere today.

[XemaSab]

29. If you look at the air photos

the ice isn't melting from the outside of a solid pack, it's dissolving into chunks and rotting in place. The extent looks greater, but the volume isn't as big as the outer periphery would indicate.

[XemaSab]

27. Fascinating that the northwest passage is virtually open

but there's still ice off the Alaskan coast.

[joshcryer]

30. Looks like the outside in melting is starting now.

Time to see how deep it goes.

[hatrack]

32. The Line E. Siberian - Beaufort is quite striking - plenty of 60-70% in place as July ends

Fascinating.

[joshcryer]

34. The patch N. of Borden is most interesting to me.

I don't know how much movement it can make, but being tied to those northern Islands (Borden, Ellef Ringnes) could prove problematic for its future survival through the next month and a half.

Interesting times.

[Systematic Chaos]

31. Time to kick a thread that matters back above all the insipid crap.

:kick:

[joshcryer]

33. Thanks.

<3

[Systematic Chaos]

35. Holy fuck on a pogo stick.

:wow:

[Systematic Chaos]

36. Holy

:kick: on a pogo stick.

[hatrack]

37. 7/29/10 - Jesus. H. Christ.

That is all.

[XemaSab]

43. The ice photos have been frightening for a month.

I'm surprised it's taken this long.

[FedUpWithIt All]

38. That does not look good.

Damn.

:(

[joshcryer]

39. Um...

Wow.

[pscot]

40. The 30 day movies at the web site

offer an interesting, time-lapsed view of what's happening.

[Systematic Chaos]

41. Here is a link to the one matching the view of the map in the OP

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/CT/animate.arctic.color.1.html

[XemaSab]

42. NOM

n/t

[Systematic Chaos]

44. You haz a corm?

:P

[Systematic Chaos]

45. A big, fat kick in the polynya.

:kick:

[hatrack]

47. Draw a line from Banks Island to the New Siberian Islands

I'd be willing to color that gone (or mostly so) by Labor Day Weekend.

[Systematic Chaos]

48. Check the graph in post #4.

The line depicting the ice area is about to slip back under the 2007 line again.

I think it will stay below until (maybe) sometime this coming winter. :(

[XemaSab]

49. I don't think it will be as visually dramatic as the 2007 collapse

In 2007 the ice was a solid cap, but this year most of the decay is happening within the matrix.

I think the real XOMG moment is going to happen when the refreeze is pushed back 3+ weeks due to movement of the fragmented ice particles.

[joshcryer]

50. Kick.

[Odin2005]

51. Augest 7, and the North-West Passage is now open.

[emmadoggy]

52. Kick. nt

[Systematic Chaos]

53. And another kick to keep the relevant information above the

[emmadoggy]

54. Kickety. nt

[joshcryer]

55. NOAA closed the iceburg season early this year.

[hatrack]

56. Banks-New Siberian sector going fast, but the big surprise is N. of Svalbard

Don't think we've seen that much weakness in the Svalbard/Franz Josef/North Pole triangle before this year. Interesting.

[emmadoggy]

57. Another kick. Big black hole has opened up in

that chunk in the Beaufort Sea this week.

[XemaSab]

58. If we had another 6 weeks of melt

I know what my prediction would be. :P

[XemaSab]

59. What's the weather like up there?

What's the likelihood of all that slush north of Svalbard spitting out into the North Atlantic like so many chili-cheese fries on the tilt-a-whirl at the Kern county fair? :shrug:

[Odin2005]

60. The North-East Passage is open.

[The Croquist]

61. The North East Passage being open is not unusual

It was first done in 1878.

[hatrack]

62. 8/29/2010 - Paging Don Ho! All together now . . .

Tiny islands
Made of ice
Getting smaller
Look so nice!

Tiny islands
Sing this song
In the Beaufort
Won't last long!

[phantom power]

63. :-)

[The Croquist]

64. AMSR-E Sea Ice Extent

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot.csv

Year AMSR-E Sea Ice Extent
2002 5,912,813
2003 6,337,813
2004 5,951,406
2005 5,728,125
2006 5,957,344
2007 4,664,844
2008 5,116,094
2009 5,533,906
2010 5,345,156

The key is the last melt date. Since 2002 the last melt date has varied from as early as 09/09 (2002 & 2008) to as late as 09/24 (2007). 2010 is 680,312 sq km above 2007 and 2010 is about 15 days behind the 2007 pace so I don't think that 2010 will get anywhere near 2007.

I wonder about the 08/29 number however. It showed a GAIN of 2,500 sq km. That is the first gain since 04/19 so it might be suspicious.

Regardless, 2010 has been ahead of 2007 and 2008 since 07/10 and 08/18 respectfully. 2007 was also special in that the melt season lasted until 09/24. If 2010 goes around the average of 09/15 it won't be even close.

[The Croquist]

65. AMSR-E Sea Ice Extent grows for second day in a row

It's two weeks early but it's just possible that we've reached the 2010 minimum. I doubt it too but one thing is for sure, by gaining even a little bit of ice instead of losing it, 2010 is gaining ground on other years.

Sorry but I blew my number for the gain from 08/28 to 08/29 in my post yesterday. It was 9,844 sq km not 2,500 sq km.

[OnlinePoker]

66. I read it as a drop of 4300km, not an increase. nt

[GliderGuider]

67. You're correct.

There has only been one increase in the last month, two days ago. My opinion is that the drastic difference in the rate of change seen in the last two days is anomalous. Here are the daily changes for the last month (negative numbers are decreases, positive numbers are increases):

-56093
-82969
-47656
-82969
-99531
-33750
-30625
-33125
-71094
-48750
-47500
-59531
-38125
-39219
-23594
-43125
-67969
-81562
-108906
-109219
-43906
-54532
-84375
-93906
-69531
-73594
-68437
-37032
-45312
-77969
-86719
-102500
-88281
-76250
-61719
-53906
-48125
-38437
-50313
-68125
-60781
-67969
-61719
-59531
-63281
-39688
-72500
-79687
-33125
-40156
-15782
-31406
-80312
-26407
-50000
-36093
-38438
-78437
-56407
9844
-4219

[The Croquist]

68. I swear I didn't make up the number!!!!

I'm claiming they updated it since I posted earlier. That's my story and I'm sticking with it!

You may be right that "the rate of change seen in the last two days is anomalous" but the last two days could also be an indication of an early end to the melt season which isn't due for about 2 weeks. It could also be an indication that a wind shift is spreading out the ice a little more. I hope you're looking forward to the next few days of data as I am. This is even more exciting then watching paint dry.

PS: I'm really disappointed. :-(

[GliderGuider]

69. I've been bitten before by calling trends based on too little data.

I'll wait. 2007 was much more exciting...

[OnlinePoker]

70. Because I like numbers...

Below is a chart showing the year, where we were Aug 30 of that year, how much it dropped by end of melt season, and date of lowest extent

Year Aug 30 Drop to End Date of Low
2002 5856250 -209375 9 Sep
2003 6325938 -293907 18 Sep
2004 5932188 -123438 19 Sep
2005 5662344 -347188 22 Sep
2006 5953594 -171875 14 Sep
2007 4616094 -348438 16 Sep
2008 5090000 -382187 9 Sep
2009 5487656 -237812 13 Sep

Avg 5615508 -264278 15 Sep

So using the averages and the 30 Aug 10 extent of 5348281, I predict the end of melt season will have a final total of 5084003 sq km and occur on 15 Sep.

[The Croquist]

71. As of 06:19 AM EST the IJAX number is: The latest value : 5,320,000 km2 (August 31, 2010)

That is a copy and paste.

That is -28,281 compared to yesterday which is a shade more then the 9 year average of -23,055.

[emmadoggy]

72. Kick. Title of the thread is looking pretty appropriate right now.... nt

[XemaSab]

73. For reals

"Dire as hell" might also be an appropriate title.

Or my old thread, "Holy shit."

And remember kids, this year the arctic dipole was acting to PRESERVE the ice. :P

[phantom power]

74. If I make the rash prediction that all the blue and green pixels are going to disappear...

we might still tie 2007. Oh well, guess we'll find out for realz soon enough.

:shrug:

[XemaSab]

76. I think this is going to be the "Miss Congeniality" year

Wanna start placing bets for 2011? :popcorn:

[joshcryer]

77. Depends, if we have a 2009 style winter, it could be epic, but if it's not so bad...

...the ice could recover nicely in very quick order.

[XemaSab]

78. .

:rofl:

[joshcryer]

79. Whaa? 2009 was an exceptionally warm subarctic!

:(

[XemaSab]

80. Oh, sorry, I thought you were making a joke

pretending that even a cold winter could lead to recovery. :P

[joshcryer]

81. If you remember the 2009-2010 winter was quite warm in the subarctic.

The United States, as far as I recall, was experiencing record lows in part because of that. Warm subarctic -> high pressure -> more water vapor -> colder weather and snow in the middle of North America.

If the 2010-2011 winter remotely resembles that, then I think we could see a 2007 style melt, if not something worse. I do expect a recovery though just because how these cycles tend to work.

[The Croquist]

85. No sign of the minimum yet:

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

IJIS is showing 5,027,188 as of 09/07.* We've been losing 50,000 - 60,000 sq km per day. 2010 is still 590,469 above 2007 for 09/09 and 287,344 above 2008 but already below the minimums for 2002 - 2006 and 2009. That guarantees it a bronze medal. So much for my hopes of an early minimum.

* I'm not including the 09/08 number(4,977,344) because I've noticed that they tend to update the early morning number later on in the day.

[emmadoggy]

75. Ahhhh, yes. I remember the Holy Shit thread.... nt

[emmadoggy]

82. Holy crap, there's a hole just north of the pole.

(rhyming unintended!)

Seriously, WTF?!
:wow:

[Dead_Parrot]

83. Just north of the pole?

Now I've got a headache.

;)

[emmadoggy]

84. D'oh!!

Got me!

:dunce:

[happyslug]

86. Here is the web cite, it does not say why the hole, but no hole in the Antarctic.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/

I believe I read the hole is a product of HOW the picture is composed. Various pictures are taken the the North Pole is used as a point of overlapping. Since the North Pole is the center the system forming the pictures leave it as a blank circle. This is from what I remember I read once, not a reliable source of data. I did go to the web cite of a picture but could NOT find an explanation, even through it had the same picture of the Antarctic and it does NOT have the hole.

Now for the data on Ice levels see:
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/index.html

[emmadoggy]

87. No, no, I completely understand about the perfectly round

black hole right where the North pole is. It's like if you stand in the middle of a room and take a series of pictures around the room, turning a little bit as you go, you would have a "dead spot" in the middle that would not be represented in the pictures because that is where you were standing. I get that it's just an artifact of how they compose the picture.

I meant that there was an actual hole in the ice cover just above that area where the pole is. The ice seems to have shifted and it is gone now, but it was there before. Shocking to see a hole in the middle of the ice cap instead of just the usual melt around the edges.

[OnlinePoker]

88. Open water at the pole is common late season.

I remember seeing a picture from the mid 80s of three submarines surfaced together at the pole and there was a lot of open water or very thin ice. And this was in May, if I remember right.

[OnlinePoker]

89. Looks like the bottom was reached on the 10th

We've had two up days in a row now so melt season may be over.

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot.csv

[The Croquist]

90. It's too soon to tell.

Today's number is subject to change perhaps several times. This morning it was at 5,001,406. Now it is at 5,005,000. That's not much difference but I've seen it revised several times in a day and much more significantly. It could also turn around and start dropping again. I'll give it another 2 days. If it is the end of melt season it actually stopped a little early.

[GliderGuider]

91. The number this morning is 4,948,438 - a new low for the year

Down 50,000 from yesterday. The melt may not be quite over yet...

[GliderGuider]

92. Still sliding - 4,890,938 n/t

[The Croquist]

93. 4,842,031 this morning!

This is wild...

[OnlinePoker]

94. And odd considering NSIDC called the low on the 10th.

Proves even the scientists get it wrong on occasion.

[GliderGuider]

97. Yep, they got it wrong all right. Still sliding today - 4,813,594 n/t

[The Croquist]

99. This time for sure!!!!!!

With this mornings number we are up 4 days in a row:
09/18 4,813,594
09/19 4,841,563 +27,969
09/20 4,878,281 +36,718
09/21 4,915,313 +37,032
09/22 4,954,844 +39,531

Minimums since 2002:

2002 5,646,875 9/09
2003 6,032,031 9/18
2004 5,784,688 9/11
2005 5,315,156 9/22
2006 5,781,719 9/14
2007 4,254,531 9/24
2008 4,707,813 9/09
2009 5,249,844 9/13
2010 4,813,594 9/18

2010 was the third least behind 2007 & 2008. So much for my hope of a third rebound year in a row.

[emmadoggy]

95. The center seems to be re-freezing nicely,

but still losing around the edges? :shrug:

[Dead_Parrot]

96. The center is heading back to perpetual darkness

so it's going to get very cold rather quickly. Down a few degrees and your still have daylight, so it stays warmer for longer: Sea temperature will be the deciding factor there.

[OnlinePoker]

98. This from Canadian Ice Services 30 day forecast for Western Arctic

"Mean air temperatures for the second half of September are
predicted to be above normal for the entire area. Additionally, at the
beginning of this period, sea surface temperatures reached 5°C above
normal in many places in the southern Beaufort Sea and along the route
from Amundsen Gulf to Rae Strait. "

http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/app/WsvPrdCanQry.cfm?subID=2008&Lang=eng