Terrific blog about ice

[XemaSab]

It is not widely remembered today, but the most rapid and unusual ice loss in 2007 didn't begin until about July. This year's ice loss didn't start to show up in graphs until the end of April, leading some bloggers to write about ice recovery and near-normal extent.

The rapid ice melt this year began at the end of March, accelerated in late April and continues at about the same rate. The melt extent is already ahead of 2007. Considering that melt in 2007 didn't really begin to take off until the 4th week in June, we must expect that by the last day of June the ice extent will be dramatically below 2007 levels.

There is always going to be a problem in using computerised measures of ice extent, area, volume and such. It takes a human eye to see the difference in quality of sea ice in different areas. To reiterate what I have said before: I regard the mechanical qualities and mobility of ice as being paramount in predicting ice melt. Ice which lacks mechanical strength is readily fragmented by melt or impact. Fragmented ice is highly mobile and is susceptible to the vagaries of wind and current.

http://www.scientificblogging.com/chatter_box/arctic_ice_june_2010_solstice_update

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He's also got an excellent link to near-real-time aerial imagery of the ice cap. (The file is very large, and beautifully detailed. Photos are also available in 1 km resolution.)

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic.2010170.aqua.4km

From the above photo, it's evident that all the yellow areas on the Cryosphere Today image are just floating shards of ice.



I think what's about to happen is going to make 2007 look like a trip to the ice cream shop.

[Systematic Chaos]

1. I think we're headed for an ice-free North Pole this year.

Imagine all those screaming, crying rugrats when Santa Claus drowns. :scared:

[joshcryer]

2. Thanks for these updates, and keep them coming. I've been saying 2010 is a wild year.

And the data is really proving it out.

Unfortunately for the data, 2011 will probably be a decent recovery year, but a decade from now I fully expect the north pole to be introducing some serious feedbacks.

Thankfully while there may be naysayers today, in a decade or less we'll have so much evidence that we will as a species probably act. Whether or not we act in time is up for our next two generations to determine.

[pscot]

6. Why do you believe

that 2011 will be a recovery year? At some point the system will tip. We seem to be getting very near it.

[muriel_volestrangler]

3. The estimate for ice volume is dropping off a cliff

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/ArcticSeaiceVolume/IceVolume.php

Long term average from mid-June, the latest update, is about 21,000 km3 - and half of that is gone. Even if the anomaly recovers in the next couple of months by a thousand km3 or so, by the September minimum, there will be only about 25% of the ice of the long-term average for that time of year.

[Systematic Chaos]

4. Next update of that graph will have to be drawn to a new scale.

Fuuuuuuuuck. :(

[joshcryer]

5. And as the reports say, it won't recover in the next couple of months.

It won't start recovering for at least two more months. Going to be quite interesting.

[joshcryer]

7. Kick. This is getting crazy. All the blue. It is almost gone.

[Systematic Chaos]

8. Looks like we'll have an ice-free North Pole in another month.

Other than that, I have no clue what else to say right now. Words cannot do this justice.

[joshcryer]

9. Another good blog about ice:

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/