Full Lake Champlain Freezeup Becoming Increasingly Rare - 1 In 10 Odds Before 1970, 50-50 Today

[hatrack]

EDIT

Over the past three decades, the 120-mile-long lake is freezing later and more often incompletely, said Curt Stager, a study co-author and a professor of biology and geology at Paul Smith's College in Franklin County.

Stager was among more than 100 scientists, advocates and government officials who attended the 17th annual conference of the consortium, founded in 1994 to provide scientific study to help guide policy within the 6-million-acre Adirondack Park. Lake Champlain forms the park's eastern boundary, and is fed water from a large swath of the northeast Adirondacks, including Lake George and Lake Placid.

Over the last three decades, average temperatures in the Lake Champlain region have risen 2 degrees in the summer, and even more -- 3.6 degrees -- in the fall, said Stager. The records come from the U.S. Historical Climate Network, which has eight weather stations in the Champlain region, and has more than 1,200 stations across the county run by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

As temperatures around it warm, the lake isn't following historic patterns of freezing over. Going back to records from 1816, the lake has failed to freeze over completely in 31 different winters; 16 of the seasons have come since 1970, when global temperatures began climbing, Stager said. Put another way: Prior to 1970, the lake would fail to freeze over about one year in every 10. Since then, that's become a 50-50 chance.

EDIT

http://www.timesunion.com/AspStories/story.asp?storyID=933345&category=STATE

[SPedigrees]

1. Evidence of climate change in my back yard. nt

[guardian]

2. What was the pattern prior to 1816?

What was the freezing pattern and temperatures in the 194 years prior to 1816?

[RaleighNCDUer]

3. Presumably even more consistent freezing, due to the Little Ice Age

going back into the 16th century which didn't end until the 1850s.

I'm assuming the 1816 date was simply how far back they had consistent written records.

[guardian]

8. "I'm assuming the 1816 date was simply how far back they had consistent written records"

That's exactly the point. You don't know what it was doing prior to 1816. Therefore trying to ascribe a long term pattern, much less a reason behind a change in pattern, is pretty much pure speculation.

You mentioned the little ice age. Was that natural, or human induced? What is the natural climate pattern cycle? 30 years? 100 years? 1000 years? 10000 years? The OP's implication is lake's lack of freezing is unprecedented, a bad thing, and of course caused by AGW. None of these implications are supported by anything other than wishful doomer thinking and a health dose of Kool-Aid.

You can show pretty much any conclusion you want by playing the the scale, sampling rate, display period, using logarithmic or linear scale, or any number of techniques:

http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51UT7gYNn6L._BO2,204,203,200_PIsitb-sticker-arrow-click,TopRight,35,-76_AA300_SH20_OU01_.jpg

[happyslug]

9. 1816 was the year without a Summer.....

Frost in New England in July, the Wheat crop was in, but not the corn crop. New England had started to grow wheat during the Napoleonic war so it could be sold to the British for use by Wellington in the Spanish Campaign (This continued even after the start f the War of 1812, the British Blockade of the US was set up starting from the south northward, even as late as 1814, New England would send out ships and the British warships would intercept those ships and then escort them to Spain (Napoleon was defeated in the Battle of Nations in 1814 and exiled to Elba in 1814, ending the War between England and France, which did NOT re-start till Napoleon's 100 days in 1815, AFTER the US and Britain had signed a Peace Treaty and AFTER the Battle of New Orleans).

Yes, Wheat was for FOREIGN Markets, Corn was for US use, and the frost killed the Corn Crop and caused a famine in the US (and the rest of the US AND Europe). I mention it for it was a well known winter and would be the date where such records be start being kept.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer

It is believed to be tied in with the Mount Tambora eruption in 1815:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Tambora#1815_eruption

[jpak]

11. What's happening in Champlain is happening in all New England lakes - anthropogenic global warming

real scientists recognize this

others?

not so much

[sinkingfeeling]

4. I thought 50-50 chances were really one out of 2. Isn't that better than 1-in-10?

[Geoff R. Casavant]

7. The OP title got it a little wrong

The article says there used to be only a 1 in 10 chance of the lake *failing* to freeze, and a 50-50 chance now.

[The Croquist]

5. Coming out of the Little Ice Age I'm not surprised.

Since the study started during the Little Ice Age one would expect the temperature to increase. What a coincidence that the records go back to 1816 also known as the "Year Without a Summer" that is best known for abnormally cold temperatures (and famine).

These are the steps the study recommends:

Controlling soil erosion and nutrient pollution
What does this have to do with climate change?

Maintaining wetlands and vegetated zones along shorelines – instead of roads, buildings, seawalls
What does this have to do with climate change?

Retrofitting or replacing culverts to handle anticipated increased stream-flows and allow aquatic organisms to move freely and find cold water refuges
What does this have to do with climate change?

Preventing the invasion of more non-native species into the lake and its tributaries
What does this have to do with climate change?

The population of the people around the lake has grow dramatically through the years. This results in more sediments due to construction and more nutrient pollution in the form of fertilizers, phosphates and sewage. It is a population issue.

[SPedigrees]

6. The world's pollution problems and climate problems

all are a population issue. There are too damn many of us.

[The Croquist]

12. Careful

I said something along those lines once and was accused of being a racist.

[PavePusher]

13. Right, let's get rid of the people.

Umm, you first...








I'm kidding.

[jpak]

10. It's anthropogenic global warming and this is happening to all New England lakes

yup