Non-OPEC Oil Production Hits the Wall

[Javaman]

In the last year I’ve read several articles expounding on the many non-OPEC* oil discoveries that have been made in recent years and how large the oil resource is within the non-OPEC sphere of the world. The objective of these articles is to reassure the reader that all is well for non-OPEC oil production, now and in the foreseeable future. If all is so well outside OPEC, one must ask why the non-OPEC oil production rate has not exceeded the level achieved in 2004 in spite of the elevated price of oil since then.

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/52064

[FBaggins]

1. A few simple reasons

1) New production takes years to come on line. Iraq may plan to substantially increase their production (and few doubt that they can absent political unrest), but it will take years before they can do so. There are supposedly massive supplies discovered in deep water off Brazil... but it could be several years before production is ramped up substantially.

2) Peak Oil adherents cannot accept the possibility of production being influenced by demand... but that isn't reality. The world economy doesn't have anything that they could DO with a couple million bpd extra production right now.

3) "Non Opec" isn't at all specific enough. What are the internals? Some nations are increasing production that we had been told never could (US & Russia), and during a recession... while some that are declining (Canada) could increase production but elect not to.

4) The provided graph in non-opec production does not look like the pollyanna-ish permanent increase that optimists might wish... but it doesn't resemble a Hubbert peak either.