Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

Did Human Activities Trigger the Great Sichuan Earthquake of 2008?

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Environment/Energy Donate to DU
 
NNadir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-26-10 10:20 PM
Original message
Did Human Activities Trigger the Great Sichuan Earthquake of 2008?
Edited on Tue Jan-26-10 10:25 PM by NNadir
Natural disasters are often described as “acts of God,” but within days of last May’s devastating earthquake in China’s Sichuan Province, seismologists in and out of China were quietly wondering whether humans might have had a hand in it. Now, the first researchers have gone public with evidence that stresses from water piled behind the new Zipingpu Dam may have triggered the failure of the nearby fault, a failure that went on to rupture almost 300 kilometers of fault and kill some 80,000 people. Still, no one is near to proving that the Wenchuan quake was a case of reservoir triggered seismicity. “There’s no question triggered earthquakes happen,” says seismologist Leonardo Seeber of the Lamont- Doherty Earth Observatory in Palisades, New York. That fact and the new evidence argue that the quake-dam connection “is worth pursuing further,” he says, but proving triggering “is not easy.”

And the Chinese government is tightly holding key data. Seismologists have been collecting examples of triggered seismicity for 40 years. “The surprising thing to me is that you need
very little mechanical disturbance to trigger an earthquake,” says Seeber. Removing fluid or rock from the crust, as in oil production or coal mining, could do it. So might injecting fluid to store wastes or sequester carbon dioxide, or adding the weight of 100 meters or so of water behind a dam...


http://www.sciencemag.org/content/vol323/issue5912/index.dtl">Kerr and Stone, Science Vol 323, page 322, Jan 16, 2009.

The Zipingpu dam survived the earthquake, by the way. About half a million people live downstream from the dam. It is not clear that the dam would have survived Monsoon type levels in the reservoir, but the reservoir was only partially filled on the day of the quake. Engineers quickly drained the reservoir after the quake to repair damage to it.

The Zipingpu dam is upstream from the Three Gorges dam, which in turn is upstream from 40 million people.

A series of serial dam failures in 1975 in China, at Banqiao and other dams downstream from it represents the largest energy disaster of all time, killing more than 1/4 of a million people.

Of course everyone here knows all about that one, given the amount of time we all spend discussing it, which is almost continuously.

Just kidding...

A similar disaster was narrowly averted in the United States in 1983 - a matter that is somewhat obscure - but was averted when the Corp of Engineers went to a local hardware store to get plywood to avert the collapse of Lake Powell, upstream from the Hoover dam.

I covered this point on another website some time ago: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/7/27/23239/9852">A Tale of Two Centimeters: The Near Collapse of the Colorado River Dam System in 1983.

Hydrological triggering of seismicity is being increasingly discussed in the literature. Another example is given in http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6V61-4Y34MCM-1&_user=10&_coverDate=02%2F15%2F2010&_alid=1181746208&_rdoc=1&_fmt=high&_orig=search&_cdi=5801&_sort=r&_docanchor=&view=c&_ct=1&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=b598a130c62323b041b545f409b7ea43">L. Bollinger et al. / Earth and Planetary Science Letters 290 (2010) 20–29



Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
daninthemoon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-26-10 10:23 PM
Response to Original message
1. If true, makes us seem more vulnerable doesn't it. Earthquake should
take more to trigger than something man can do.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Nihil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-27-10 08:19 AM
Response to Reply #1
5. Since when does the word "should" come into it?
> Earthquake should take more to trigger than something man can do.

Earthquakes are the result of massive forces operating over specific
regions under certain conditions.

In other words, they will happen in those specific regions when those
certain conditions are reached and the energy built up will be partially
or completely released in the form of ground displacements (which may
or may not have other knock-on effects like tsunamis, soil liquifaction,
lensing, etc., depending on the specifics of the event).

There is no "should" about it.

If "man" has been stupid (or naive) enough to help create those certain
conditions, the reaction will be the same as if "man" didn't do a thing
about it - an earthquake.

:shrug:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
daninthemoon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-28-10 08:01 AM
Response to Reply #5
14. my point is: earthquakes are such large phenomena driven by such
huge forces, that it shouldn't be possible for man to effect one.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
AlecBGreen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-28-10 10:53 AM
Response to Reply #14
15. shouldnt be possible
yet the evidence suggests it IS possible and actually HAS happened.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=geothermal-drilling-earthquakes

"Just a few years ago, a now-infamous geothermal project in Basel, Switzerland, which drilled three miles (4.8 kilometers) into Earth's crust, set off a magnitude 3.4 earthquake, rocking the town and shutting the operation down entirely, The New York Times recalled recently.

Drilling has even been fingered as the cause of a massive 2006 mud volcano in Java, which displaced more than 30,000 people after a gas exploration project went awry. "We are more certain than ever that the Lusi mud volcano is an unnatural disaster," Richard Davies of the Center for Research into Earth Energy Systems at Durham University in England said in a statement after investigating the incident."

The 3 Gorges dam will hold back so much water that the tilt of the earth will be affected, as will the length of day & night. Tell me THAT cant cause a few cracks in the crust!

Its hard to believe that wee little men can affect this great big planet, but we surely are.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
jwirr Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-26-10 10:28 PM
Response to Original message
2. Considering how many things we are doing to change the interior
structure of the earth it is no wonder that it is crumbling and sinking and .....
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
kristopher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-26-10 11:15 PM
Response to Original message
3. Similar topic "does oil extraction cause earthquakes"?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Nihil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-27-10 08:08 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. Come on ... the "similarity" is purely in the word "earthquake" ...
The thread you linked to was started by an apparently honest question
that was subsequently explained politely by some responders despite
the fact that it was (to anyone familiar with the subject) a clear
case of jumping to completely the wrong conclusions due to an admitted
lack of knowledge in that area.

This thread is not only being flagged by experts in the field
but has a clear history of scientific evidence supporting it.

I know you & Nnadir get on like matter & anti-matter but this
is the wrong topic to start it in.

:hi:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
NNadir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-27-10 11:14 AM
Response to Reply #4
6. I wouldn't say like matter and anti-matter, although I personally feel
that it easy to annihilate the silly arguments of the anti-nuke cults.

But please be kind to this fabulous guy and don't evoke something that requires a knowledge of nuclear physics. I guarantee it will go over his head since he clearly despises that science, without knowing a thing about it.

Maybe you could say that we are as compatible as an oil slick with the waters of http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/8/6/215031/9285">Karachi Harbor.

It is possible, though not certain, that we both understand that.

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
kristopher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-27-10 11:31 AM
Response to Reply #4
7. The similarity is purely in the word earthquake?
While there are differences, there is also overlapping research. From that thread:

1. John G. Armbruster, Donald W. Steeples & Leonard Seeber, "The 1989 Earthquake Sequence near Palco, Kansas; A Possible Example of Induced Seismicity," 60 Seismol. Res. Letters 141 (1989).

2. P. Y. Bard, J.R. Grasso, D. Fourmaintraux & M. Koller, "A Methodology for Induced Seismic Risk Evaluation around Hydrocarbon Recovery Sites: Validation on the Lacq Gas Field, France," Abstracts XXI General Assembly Int'l Union Geodesy & Geophys. A364 (1995)

3. Firyal Bou-Rabee & Amos Nur, "The 1993 M4.7 Kuwait Earthqake: Induced by the Burning of the Oilfields," 29 Kuwait J. of Science Eng. (2002)

4. M. S. Bruno & C. A. Bovberg, "Reservoir Compaction and Surface Subsidence above the Lost Hills Field, California," Rock Mechanics 263 (1992).

5. J. R. Century, "Oil and Natural Gas Induced Seismicity," Annual Meeting Abstracts, Amer. Assoc. Pet. Geologists 15 (1995)

6. Qiang Chen & Amos Nur, "Pore Fluid Pressure Effects in Anisotropic Rocks: Mechanisms of Induced Seismicity and Weak Faults," 139 Pure and Applied Geophys. 463 (1992)

7. Scott D. Davis, Paul A. Nyffenegger, and Cliff Frohlich, "The April 9, 1993 Earthquake in South-Central Texas: Was it Induced by Oil and Gas Production?" 85 Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 1888 (1995)

8. Scott D. Davis, Paul Nyffenegger & Cliff Frohlich," The April 9, 1993 Earthquake and Other Recent Tremors in South Central Texas: Induced by Oil and Gas Production?" , EOS, Trans. Am. Geophys. Union Abstracts 472 (1994).

9. Diane I. Doser, M.R. Baker & D. B. Mason, Seismicity in the War-Wink Gas Field, West Texas, and its Relationship to Petroleum Production, 81 Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 971 (1991).

10. Diane I. Doser, M. R. Baker, M. Luo, P. Marroquin, L. Ballesteros, J. Kingwell, H. L. Diaz & G. Kaip, The Not So Simple Relationship Between Seismicity and Oil Production in the Permian Bais, West Texas, 139 Pure & Applied Geophysics 481 (1992)

11. Earthquake Research Supervisory Committee, Summary of the Final Report on the Multidisciplinary study of the Relationship between Gas Production and Earthquakes in the Northern Part of the Netherlands, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (1991)

12. Torild van Eck, Femke Goutbeek, Hein Haak and Bernard Dost, "Seismic Hazard Due to Small-magnitude, Shallow-source, Induced Earthquakes in The Netherlands," 87 Engineering Geology 105 (2006)

13. D. Fabre,J.R. Grasso & Y. Orengo, Mechanical Behavior of Deep Rock Coree Sample from a Seismically active Gas Field, 137 Pure & Applied Geophys. 201 (1992).

14. Bruno Feigner & Jean-Robert Grasso, Seismicity Induced by Gas Production I: Correlation of Focal Mechanisms & Dome Structure, 134 Pure and Applied Geophys. 405 (1990)

15. Jean-Robert Grasso, Mechanics of Seismic Instabilities Induced by the Recovery of Hydrocarbons, 139 Pure & Applied Geophysics 507 (1992)

16. Jean-Robert Grasso, Hydrocarbon Extraction and Seismic Hazard Assessment, , EOS, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union Abstracts 1454 (1990?)

17. J.R. Grasso & B. Feigner, Geomechanical Behavior and Structural Evolution Induced by a Depletion--a Case Study of a Gas Field, Rockbursts and Seismicity in Mines, 5 (1990)

18. Jean-Robert Grasso & Bruno Feigner, Seismicity Induced by Gas Production II: Lithology Correlated Events, Induced Stresses & Deformation, 134 Pure & Applied Geophys. 427 (1990)

19. Jean-Robert Grasso, "Testing Self-organized Criticality by Induced Seismicity," 103 Journal of Geophysical Research 29,965 (1998)

20. J. R. Grasso, L.M. Plotnikova, B. Nutaev & R. Bossu, The Three M-7 Gazli Earthquakes, Usbekistan, Central Asia: The Largest Seismic Energy Releases by Human Activity, Abstracts XXI Gen Ass. Int. Union Geodesy & Geophys. A363 (1995)

21. J.R. Grasso, P. Volunt, D. Fourmaintraux, Scaling of Seismic Response to Hydrocarbon Production: A Toll to Estimate Both Seismic Hazard and Reservoir Behavior Over Time, Eurock '94 Conf, Delft (1994).

22. J. R. Grasso & G. Wittlinger, 10 Years of Seismic Monitoring over a Gas Field, 80 Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 450 (1990)

23. F. Guyoton, J.R. Grasso, P. Volant, Interrelation between Induced Seismic Instabilities and Complex Geological Structure, 19 Geophysical Res. Lett. 705 (1992).

24. J. M. Hamilton, A.V. Miller & M.D. Prins, Subsidence-induced Shear Failures above Oil and Gas Reservoirs, Rock Mechanics 273 (1992).

25. Robert B. Horner, The Fort St. John, B.C. Earthquakes, (A Preliminary Report for the B.C. Ministry of Energy, Mines and Petroleum Resources) Geological Survey of Canada (1993)

26. Robert B. Horner, J.E. Barclay, J. M. MacRae, R.J. Wetmiller & I. Asudeh, Earthquakes at the Eagle Oil Field near Fort St. John, British Columbia, Abstracts XXI General Assembly Int'l Union Geodesy & Geophys. A363 (1995)

27. Robert B. Horner, J.E. Barclay, J. M. MacRae, Earthquakes and Hydrocarbon Production in the Fort St. John Area of Northeastern British Columbia, Canadian 30 Jour. Explor. Geophysics 39 (1994)

28. Robert B. Horner, J.E. Barclay, J. M. MacRae R. J. Wetmiller & I. Asudeh, Earthquakes and Hydrocarbon Production in the Fort St. John Area of Northeastern British Columbia, EOS Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, Abstracts 472 (1994).

29. G.R. Keller, A.M. Rogers & C.D. Orr, Seismic Activity in the Permian Basin Area of West Texas and Southeastern New Mexico, 1975-79, 58 Seismol. Res. Lett. 63 (1987)

30. R.L. Kovach, Source Mechanisms for Wilmington Oil Field, California, Subsidence Earthquakes, 64 Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 699 (1974).

31. V. M. R. Maury, J. R. Grasso & G. Wittlinger, Monitoring of Subsidence and Induced Seismicity in the Lacq Gas Field (France): The Consequences on Gas Production and Field Operation, 32 Engineering Geology 123 (1992)

32. Arthur McGarr, On A Possible Connection Between Three Major Earthquakes in Californian and Oil Production, 81 Bulle. of Seismol. Soc. of Am. 948 (1991)

33. R.F. Mereu, J. Brunet, K. Morrissey, B. Price, A. Yapp, A study of the Microearthquakes of the Gobbles Oil Field Area of Southwestern Ontario, 76 Bulle. Seismol. Soc. Am 1215 (1986)

34. Hirokazu Moriya, James T. Rutledge & Hiroaki Niitsuma, Evaluation of Subsurface Crack Structures and Stress Direction by Using Doublets in the Three- component Seismic Measurement , Abstracts XXI General Assembly Int'l Union Geodesy & Geophys. A363 (1995)

35. Wayne D. Pennington, S.D. Davis, S.M. Carlson, J. Dupree & T.E. Ewing, The Evolution of Seismic Barriers and Asperities Caused by the Depressuring of Fault Planes in Oil & Gas Fields of South Texas, 78 Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 188 (1986).

36. L. M. Plotnikova, M.G. Flyonova, V.I. Machmudova, Induced Seismicity in the Gazly Gas Field Region, 99 Gerlands Beitrage zur Geophysik 389 (1990)

37. W. E. Pratt & D.W. Johnson, Local Subsidence of the Goose Creek Oil Field, 34 Geology 577 (1926)

38. J. P. A. Roest & W. Kuilman, Geomechanical Analysis of Small Earthquakes at the Eleveld gas Reservoir, Eurock '94 A.A. Balkema, Rotterdam 573 (1994)

39. J. T. Rutledge, W.S. Phillips, T.D. Fairbanks, D.W. Anderson, Microseismicity Associated with Primary Oil Production in Clinton County, Kentucky , Abstracts XXI General Assembly Int'l Union Geodesy & Geophys. A363 (1995)

40. J. T. Rutledge, J.N. Albright, T.D. Fairbanks, M.B. Murphy & P.M. Roberts, Microseismic Monitoring of the Chaveroo Oil Field, New Mexico, SEG Expanded Abstracts 237 (1990)

41. B. K. Schuessler, J.T. Rutledge & W.S. Phillips, Source Parameters of Induced Microearthquakes in a Shallow Oil Reservoir, Clinton County, Kentucky, 76 EOS, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union 354 (1995)

42. Paul Segall, Induced Stresses due to Fluid Extraction from Axisymmetric Reservoirs, 139 Pure & Applied Geophysics 535 (1992)

43. Paul Segall, Stress and Subsidence from Subsurface Fluid Withdrawal in the Epicentral Region of the 1983 Coalinga Earthquake, 90 J.Geophys. Res. 6801 (1985)

44. Paul Segall, Earthquakes Triggered by Fluid Extraction, 17 Geology 942 (1989)

45. Paul Segall, J.R. Grasso, A. Mossop, "Poroelastic Stressing and Induced Seismicity near the Lacq Gas Field, Southwestern France," 99 Jour. Geophys. Res. 15,423 (1994)

46. Paul Segall & A. Mossop, Beyond Rangely: Poro- and Thermoelastically Induced Seismicity , Abstracts XXI General Assembly Int'l Union Geodesy & Geophys. A364 (1995)

47. E.S. Shtengelov, Effect of Well Exploitation of the Upper Jurassic Aquifer on Seismicity of the Crimea, 7 Water Resources 132 (1980).

48. David W. Simpson & William Leith, The 1976 and 1984 Gazli, USSR, Earthquakes--Were They Induced? 75 Bull. Seismological Soc. Am. 1465, 1985).

49. Edmond Sze, M. Nafi Toksöz, and Daniel R. Burns "Characterization of Induced Seismicity in a Petroleum Reservoir: A Case Study," ERL Consortium Reports MIT (2005)

50. P. Volant, J. R. Grasso, G. Menard, M. Frogneux & V. Maury, Seismic and Aseismic Deformation of a Folded Structure Triggered by Gas Extraction, EOS, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union Abstracts 1454 (1990?)

51. R. J. Wetmiller, Earthquakes near Rocky Mountain House, Alberta, and their Relationship to Gas Production Facilities, 23 Can. J. Earth Sci. 172 (1986)

52. R. F. Yerkes & R.O. Castle, Seismicity & Faulting Attributable to Fluid Extraction, 10 Eng. Geol 151 (1976)

Compiled by Darlene Cypser
Last update: 8/24/2007

The primary address for this bibliography is now: www.darlenecypser.com/induceq/induceq.html.
It is mirrored at www.nyx.net/~dcypser/induceq/induceq.html
and dcypser.tripod.com/induceq/induceq.html
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
NNadir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-27-10 12:34 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. Wow. Great Googling coupled with cutting and pasting.
Edited on Wed Jan-27-10 12:36 PM by NNadir
Now we know you are an expert on the subject...well...we would if you had provided any evidence at all that you had, in fact, read even one of these papers.

Um...

If by the way, you object to the paper cited in the OP, you can always submit a letter to Science predicated with the normal kind of stuff that characterizes your posts on this topic:

"You are an idiot!!!!" you could say, and then claim that Kerr voted for Reagan, and then proceed to eviscerate Kerr based on the fact that he doesn't know how to google, cut and paste as well as you do and clearly doesn't know as much about seismology as you do. Be sure to include a description of how Kerr obviously supports oil and gas interests, sort of like Amory Lovins.

Sigh...
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
kristopher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-27-10 01:24 PM
Response to Reply #8
11. OIC
Edited on Wed Jan-27-10 01:28 PM by kristopher
It's cut and paste you want...

Nuclear Nonsense
Journal or Magazine Article, 2009
http://www.rmi.org/rmi/Library/2009-10_NuclearNonsense
Stewart Brand’s book, Whole Earth Discipline, features a chapter claiming that new nuclear power plants are
essential and desirable, and that a global “nuclear renaissance” is booming. In this book review, Amory Lovins’
review finds fatal flaws in the chapter’s facts and logic.
Download 63KB

Nuclear Spread: The Cure Begins at Home
Journal or Magazine Article, 1976
http://www.rmi.org/rmi/Library/1976-01_NuclearSpreadCureBeginsHome
In this “New York Times” op-ed, Amory Lovins commends the paper for calling attention to the link between
nuclear power and nuclear weapons, and provides further commentary about the social, political, and economic logic
of pursuing a non-nuclear energy future.
Download 78KB

Nuclear Power’s Competitive Landscape
Presentation, 2009
http://www.rmi.org/rmi/Library/2009-15_NuclearPowersCompetativeLandscape
A hotly debated topic, the present and future state of nuclear power and its competitors are the subject of this
presentation by Amory Lovins at RMI2009. This presentation was part of a plenary debate with Robert Rosner
entitled, “Nuclear: Fix or Folly?” The accompanying video of the entire debate is available at http://www.rmi.org
/rmi/Videos.
Download 7862KB

Nuclear Power and Climate Change
Letter, 2007
http://www.rmi.org/rmi/Library/C07-09_NuclearPowerClimateChange
This 2007 e-mail exchange between Steve Berry (University of Chicago), Peter Bradford (former U.S. Nuclear
Regulatory Commissioner and senior utility regulator), and Amory Lovins illustrates the cases for and against
nuclear power in relation to climate and the environment.
Download 658KB

Nuclear Energy Debate
Journal or Magazine Article, 2001
http://www.rmi.org/rmi/Library/E01-15_NuclearEnergyDebate
In 2001, Amory and Hunter Lovins participated in a published debate about nuclear power with the editors of “USA
Today.” Lovins’ argued against nuclear power.
Download 17KB

Nuclear Power: Economic Fundamentals and Potential Role in Climate Change Mitigation
Report or White Paper, 2005
http://www.rmi.org/rmi/Library/E05-09_NuclearPowerEconomicFundamentals
In this presentation, Amory Lovins provides evidence that low and no-carbon decentralized sources of energy have
eclipsed nuclear power as a climate friendly energy option. He argues that new nuclear power plants are
unfinanceable in the private capital market and that resource efficiency provides a cheaper, more environmentally
viable option.
Download 2099KB

Nuclear Power: Competitive Economics and Climate Protection Potential
Presentation, 2006
http://www.rmi.org/rmi/Library/E06-04_NuclearPowerCompetitiveEconomics
In this presentation to the Royal Academy of Engineering, Amory Lovins explains the economic and environmental
impacts of nuclear power. By showing that companies and governments have cut energy intensity without the use of
nuclear power, Lovins shows that nuclear power is not a necessary step in the fight against climate change.
Download 3742KB

Nuclear Power: Economics and Climate-Protection Potential
Journal or Magazine Article, 2006
http://www.rmi.org/rmi/Library/E06-14_NuclearPowerEconomicsClimateProtection
This paper makes an economic argument against the use of nuclear power. The authors argue that, despite strong
governmental support, nuclear power is unfinancible in the private capital market.
Download 473KB

Nuclear Power: Climate Fix or Folly?
Report or White Paper, 2009
http://www.rmi.org/rmi/Library/E09-01_NuclearPowerClimateFixOrFolly
This semi-technical article, summarizing a detailed and documented technical paper (see “The Nuclear Illusion”
(2008)), compares the cost, climate protection potential, reliability, financial risk, market success, deployment speed,
and energy contribution of new nuclear power with those of its low- or no-carbon competitors.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
NNadir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-28-10 09:59 PM
Response to Reply #11
16. We'll chalk up this claim about what I "want" to a preternatural lack of comprehension
Edited on Thu Jan-28-10 09:59 PM by NNadir
Of course, I'm not a 15 year old kid with at the church of Google and I certainly wouldn't find myself chanting the blather of anyone sort of like a twisted Rosary.

I remember Amory the stupid's remarks in 1976, before he was posting pictures of himself taking um bribes, whoops I mean "donations" from his fellow thugs at Walmart to greenwash the car CULTure, that induces so much reverence from our anti-nukes here.

He hasn't changed in 34 years either. He was an uneducated liar, mystical, daydreaming hypocrite then then - a writer of bad science fiction - and he is uneducated liar, mystical, daydreaming hypocrite today. While talking of conservation, he builds himself a McMansion in Snowmass - god knows how many trucks hauled his consumer junk up the mountain to build that piece of consumer crap - with, um, cathedral ceilings.

Here's a famous pic of freak with his SUV:



Reminds me of some the anti-nukes I know. Talking all the time about conservation without understanding that a Nigerian living on 8 watts of power has nothing to conserve.

Let them burn plastic.

And of course, unless you are morally vapid - and clearly many anti-nukes are morally vapid little consumers - you can't miss the meaning of this little blurb:

http://www.pitchengine.com/rockymountaininstitute/walmart-foundation-donates-250000-to-rmi/30589/">Wal-Mart Foundation Donates $250,000 to RMI.

Nor is the first donation of the union busting plastic hauling asphalt paving Walmart to RMI, the equivalent of the anti-nuke's "700 Club." Now before anyone accuses me of engaging in the logical fallacy of http://www.fallacyfiles.org/guiltbya.html">Guilt by Association, I note that it is one thing to be involved in mere juxtaposition, and another to be working and paid.

Lovins has never had an honest interest in energy in his pathetic and evil life. He never met a major polluting corporation he wouldn't greenwash for a fee. This is the ass who greenwashed Rio Tinto - is the even ONE dumb anti-nuke on this website who grasps the irony of the mercury dumping/coal mining corporation's name.

No?

Why am I not surprised?

Amory's 1976 high school quality paper - maybe meriting a moderated "C" in the 10th grade - allowing for the lack of references and the fact that it consists entirely of here-say, innuendo, hand waving, wishful thinking coupled with dire contempt for anyone who was not as bourgeois as
that characterizes the mindless rote dogma and chanting that drips out of the cavernous mentality of the anti-nuke community.

That's pretty typical, no? We have Amory Lovins worship, who I despise him as a fraudulent thug, presented as "argument." It's no such thing. It's like medieval monks reciting the rosary, unthinking, unquestioning, unenlightened, and rote.

Amory and his wide eyed disciples - was gaspingly inaccurate except when he quoted, out of context, the inventor of the pressurized water reactor, Alvin Weinberg, about energy demand. Of course, being as stupid as your average anti-nuke, Lovins was incompetent to understand Weinberg.

More than this one accurate statement, is blathering selective attention to what he wanted to hear, and not was likely, and not what actually occurred.

In fact, hearing what you want to hear, and not being remotely aware of what is demonstrably happening is the hallmark of anti-nukism.

For instance there is Lovins prediction - with no referenced support for it beyond "Amory says" in 1976 about the role solar energy would play in the year 2000.

Quoth Amory in 1976 - before he was raking in oodles of bucks from his pals at Walmart - before he spent all those high end afternoons skiing with Jeff Skilling and Ken Lay (of Enron fame) in Aspen, and before he was openly paid by all the dangerous fossil fuel companies about which anti-nukes couldn't care less:

And, at the further end of the spectrum, projections for 2000 being considered by the "Demand Panel" of a major U.S. National Research Council study, as of mid-1976, ranged as low as about 54 quads of fuels (plus 16 of solar energy).


Lovins, "The Road Not Taken," Foreign Affairs page 76.

(Typically of Lovins there is no reference to published work of this putative "demand panel" - it's just "Amory says..."). Unlike Lovins, I know how to reference work, even work to which I apply critical thinking and decide is horse shit.

I love to point out that as of 2010, ten years after Lovins appeal to a mystic heaven of religious Nirvana the following situation is actually obtained:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/alternate/page/renew_energy_consump/table1.html

He was off by a factor of 2 for non-solar energy, and by a factor of nearly 200 for the contribution of the now failed solar industry.

This evocation ranks with the claim that the bubonic plague was a harbinger of the return of Jesus in the 14th century, in spite of the fact that there actually were people during that plague, like Guy de Chauliac, Europe's first scientific physician, while the mystics - who dominated the popular imagination, but were clueless about reality - appealed to everyone to prepare for the savior.

The wind and solar cults - intertwined inextricably with Lovins' car CULT - are pure POP. There's not a shred of reality in it.

People ask me if I hate Lovins and if so, why. The answer to the first question is yes. The answer to the second question can be ascertained by a cursory examination of air pollution deaths, not even counting deaths from climate change and shit like Banqiao.

http://www.who.int/entity/quantifying_ehimpacts/countryprofilesebd.xls">World Health Organization Estimates of Yearly Deaths from Air Pollution, including deaths from biomass burning.

Poverty kills, and poverty maims, and anyone who denies or deliberately ignores this with an immoral focus on bourgeois wishful thinking is effectively a mass murderer in my mind. Ignorance kills.

http://www.who.int/quantifying_ehimpacts/national/countryprofile/mapoap/en/index.html

Lovins is no different than the ecclesiastic authorities who decided in the 1340's that the real cause of the bubonic plague was the presence of Jews. To my mind, Lovins perception of the poor is similar: Based on ignorance, indifference and superstition.

(One can read all about this kind of mentality in a real high school paper, which unlike Lovins' high school quality paper in Foreign Affairs is actually referenced:

http://www.richeast.org/htwm/Plague/Plague.html)

And let's be sure of something: Before we're through with air pollution, as expressed by climate change, the bubonic plague is going to look like small potatoes.

Have a wonderful evening and a pleasant day tomorrow.



Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
kristopher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-28-10 10:32 PM
Response to Reply #16
17. It was your buddy Reagan that chose to focus on nuclear and fossil.
Edited on Thu Jan-28-10 10:41 PM by kristopher
Lovins stated what was possible. He was correct then and he is correct now. Likewise supporting nuclear was a poor choice then and it is a poor choice now. That type of personal attack against Lovins is all you have to answer the specifics that Lovins lays out.


Nuclear Nonsense

I have known Stewart Brand as a friend for many years. I have admired his original and
iconoclastic work, which has had significant impact. In his new book, Whole Earth Discipline:
an Ecopragmatist Manifesto (Viking), he argues that environmentalists should change their
thinking about four issues—population, nuclear power, genetically modified organisms (GMOs),
and urbanization. Many people have asked me to assess his 41-page chapter on nuclear power, so
I’ll do that here, because I believe its conclusions are greatly mistaken.

Stewart recently predicted I wouldn’t accept his nuclear reassessment. He is quite right. His
nuclear chapter’s facts and logic do not hold up to scrutiny. Over the past few years I’ve sent him
five technical papers focused mainly on nuclear power’s comparative economics and
performance; he says he’s read them, and on p. 98 he even summarizes part of their economic
thesis. Yet on p. 104 he says, “We Greens are not economists” and disclaims knowledge of
economics, saying environmentalists use it only as a weapon to stop projects. Today most
dispassionate analysts think new nuclear power plants’ deepest flaw is their economics. They
cost too much to build and incur too much financial risk. My writings show why nuclear
expansion therefore can’t deliver on its claims: it would reduce and retard climate protection,
because it saves between two and 20 times less carbon per dollar, 20 to 40 times slower, than
investing in efficiency and micropower.

That conclusion rests on empirical data about how much new nuclear electricity actually costs
relative to decentralized and efficiency competitors, how these alternatives compare in capacity
and output added per year, and which can most effectively save carbon. Stewart’s chapter says
nothing about any of these questions, but I believe they’re at the heart of the matter. If nuclear
power is unneeded, uncompetitive, or ineffective in climate protection, let alone all three, then
we need hardly debate whether its safety and waste issues are resolved, as he claims.

In its first half-century, nuclear power fell short of its forecast capacity by about 12-fold in the
U.S. and 30-fold worldwide, mainly because building it cost severalfold more than expected,
straining or bankrupting its owners. The many causes weren’t dominated by U.S. citizen
interventions and lawsuits, since nuclear expectations collapsed similarly in countries without
such events; even France suffered a 3.5-fold rise in real capital costs during 1970–2000. Nor did
the Three Mile Island accident halt U.S. orders: they’d stopped the previous year. Rather,
nuclear’s key challenge was soaring capital cost, and for some units, poor performance.
Operational improvements in the ’90s made the better old reactors relatively cheap to run, but
Stewart’s case is for building new ones. Have their economics improved enough to prevent a
rerun?

On the contrary, a 2003 MIT study found new U.S. nuclear plants couldn’t compete with new
coal- or gas-fired plants. Over the next five years, nuclear construction costs about tripled. Was
this due to pricey commodities like steel and concrete? No; those totaled less than one percent of
total capital cost. Were citizen activists again to blame? No; they’d been neutralized by
streamlined licensing, adverse courts, and Federal “delay insurance.” The key causes seem to be
bottlenecked supply chains, atrophied skills, and a weak U.S. dollar—all widening the cost gap
between new nuclear power and its potent new competitors.
2

Today’s main alternatives aren’t limited to giant power plants burning coal or natural gas.
Decentralized sources provide from one-sixth to more than half of all electricity in a dozen
industrial countries and, together with more efficient use, deliver the majority of the world’s new
electrical services. Booming orders did lately raise wind-turbine and photovoltaic prices too, but
they’re headed back down as capacity catches up; PVs got one-fourth cheaper just in the past
year, and reactor-scale PV farms compete successfully in California power auctions. New U.S.
windfarms—“firmed” to provide reliable power even if becalmed—sell electricity at less than
typical wholesale prices, or at a third to a half the cost utilities project for new nuclear plants.

Rather than viewing nuclear power within this real-world competitive landscape, Stewart simply
waves away its competitors. He praises efficient use of electricity, but rejects it because he says
it can’t by itself replace all coal and power all global development. He also dismisses wind and
solar power, and omits small hydro, geothermal, waste/biomass combustion, all other
renewables, and cogeneration. Yet worldwide these sources make more electricity than nuclear
power does, and for the past three years, have won about 10–25 times its market share and added
about 20–40 times more capacity each year.

The world in 2008 invested more in renewable power than in fossil-fueled power. Why? Because
renewables are cheaper, faster, vaster, equally or more carbon-free, and more attractive to inves-
tors. Worldwide, distributed renewables in 2008 added 40 billion watts and got $100 billion of
private investment; nuclear added and got zero, despite its far larger subsidies and generally
stronger government support. From August 2005 to August 2008, with new subsidies equivalent
to 100+% of construction cost and with the most robust nuclear politics and capital markets in
history, the 33 proposed U.S. nuclear projects got not a cent of private equity investment.


Nonetheless, Stewart rejects all non-nuclear options, for four fallacious reasons:

• Baseload: Wind and photovoltaics can’t keep the lights on because they can’t run 24/7.
• Footprint: Photovoltaics need about 150–175 times, and windfarms from 600+ to nearly
900 times, more land than nuclear power to produce the same electricity.
• Portfolio: We need every tool for combating climate change, including nuclear power.
• Government role: The climate imperative trumps economics, so governments everywhere
must and will do what France did—ensure that nuclear power gets built, regardless of
economics or dissent.

I believe each claim is unsupportable:

• Baseload. The electricity system doesn’t rely on any plant’s ability to run continuously;
rather, all plants together supply the grid, and the grid serves all loads. That’s necessary
because no kind of power plant can run all the time, as Stewart says they must do to meet
steady loads. I repeat: there is not and has never been a need for any particular plant or
kind of plant to run all the time, and none can. All power plants fail, varying only in their
failures’ size, duration, frequency, predictability, and cause. Solar cells’ and windpower’s
variation with night and weather is no different from the intermittence of coal and nuclear
plants, except that it affects less capacity at once, more briefly, far more predictably, and
3
is no harder and probably easier and cheaper to manage. In short, the ability to serve
steady loads is a statistical attribute of all plants on the grid, not an operational
requirement for one plant. Variability (predictable failure) and intermittence (unpredic-
table failure) must be managed by diversifying type and location, forecasting, and
integrating with other resources. Utilities do this every day, balancing diverse resources
to meet fluctuating demand and offset outages. Even with a largely (or probably a
wholly) renewable grid, this is not a significant problem or cost, either in theory or in
practice—as illustrated by areas that are already 30–40% windpowered.
• Footprint. Stewart understates nuclear power’s land-use by about 43-fold by omitting all
land used by exclusion zones and the nuclear fuel chain. Conversely, he includes the
space between wind or solar equipment—unused land commonly used for farming,
grazing, wildlife, and recreation. That’s like claiming that the area of the lampposts in a
parking lot is the area of the parking lot, even though 99% of it is used for parking,
driving, and walking. Properly measured, per kilowatt-hour produced, the land made
unavailable for other uses is about the same for ground-mounted photovoltaics as for
nuclear power, sometimes less—or zero for building-mounted PVs sufficient to power
the world many times over. Land actually used per kWh is up to thousands of times
smaller for windpower than for nuclear power. If land-use were an important criterion for
picking energy systems, which it’s generally not, it would thus reverse Stewart’s footprint
conclusion.
• Portfolio. The one paper he cites as proof that we need all energy options actually says
the opposite. There is no analytic basis for his conclusion, and there’s strong science to
the contrary. We can’t afford to stuff our energy portfolio indiscriminately with some of
everything, and we shouldn’t: some options are less worthy and effective than others. The
more you fear climate change, the more judiciously you should invest to get the most
solution per dollar and per year. Nuclear flunks both these tests.
• Government. If nuclear power isn’t needed, worsens climate change (vs. more effective
solutions) and energy security, and can’t compete in the marketplace despite uniquely big
subsidies—all evidence-based findings unexamined in Stewart’s chapter—then his
nuclear imperative evaporates. Of course, a few countries with centrally planned energy
systems, mostly with socialized costs, are building reactors: over two-thirds of all nuclear
plants under construction are in China, Russia, India, or South Korea. But that’s more
because their nuclear bureaucracies dominate national energy policy and face little or no
competition in technologies, business models, and ideas. Nuclear power requires such a
system. The competitors beating nuclear power thrive in democracies and free markets.

Stewart’s reputation and his valuable prior contributions to clear thinking for a better world may
win his nuclear views some attention. Yet judged on its merits, not his history, this nuclear chap-
ter’s assertions can only worsen climate and security risks.
—Amory B. Lovins
Chairman and Chief Scientist, Rocky Mountain Institute (www.rmi.org)
13 October 2009

Supporting details are at www.rmi.org/images/PDFs/Energy/2009-09_FourNuclearMyths.pdf,
This review was first published 14 October 2009 at www.grist.org/article/2009-10-13-stewart-
brands-nuclear-enthusiasm-falls-short-on-facts-and-logic/ .
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DarleneCypser Donating Member (1 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-29-10 08:12 PM
Response to Reply #8
18. Not just cutting and pasting...
Well, the other poster seems to have cut the piece of the wrong page from the Induced Earthquake Bibliography. The correct page for Reservoir Induced Seismicity is this one: http://www.darlenecypser.com/induceq/ris.html

And yes, *I* have read all the references in it. (Even written a few of them.) You can read some of them by clicking on the hilighted links in the bibliography.

Can reservoirs induce seismicity? Yes. Do all reservoirs induce seismicity? No. Can some induced dangerous earthquakes? Yes. Is it possible that the earthquake in question was induced by the stress caused by the water behind the dam? Yes.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
kristopher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-29-10 08:24 PM
Response to Reply #18
19. Thank you for the clarification and welcome to DU.
Good job on the compilation, by the way. Thanks for that also.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Nihil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-27-10 12:37 PM
Response to Reply #7
9. My apologies ...I misunderstood the point of your response.
I jumped to the conclusion that you were grouping the OP with
some of the unscientific responses to that thread (as a result
of your ongoing friction) rather than genuinely referring to
the injection-related seismology aspects (which, somewhat
indifferently to the *reason* for the fluid injection, are
quite valid phenomena and which *are* linked to this OP).

Mea culpa.
:blush:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
kristopher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-27-10 01:19 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. Natural assumption under the circumstances. nt
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
pscot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-27-10 03:22 PM
Response to Original message
12. An EE trifecta
:popcorn:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
NNadir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-27-10 06:19 PM
Response to Reply #12
13. A trifecta?!?
Edited on Wed Jan-27-10 06:22 PM by NNadir
How does one calculate what is and is not, an E&E trifecta?

Does it involve a long disposition on how we could fuel all of our cars from methane derived from horse shit from racetracks?

Or would it involve a statement of horse shit about how we could prove that http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/alternate/page/renew_energy_consump/table1.html">0.091 = 83.436 if only we understood the deeper meaning of numbers in the metaphorical sense?

Or would it include a number of statements from a number of creatures (clearly not orangutans, Sumatran Rhinos, or Sumatran tigers) about how wonderful the German motor fuel renewable energy portfolio standards have made driving on the Autobahn at 250 km/hour safe for future generations?

To me, a trifecta would involve 514,229 threads about the disaster at Chernobyl which wiped out Kiev and the disaster at Three Mile Island that made Harrisburg, PA uninhabitable for eons, all in opposition to a single consideration of that watering event at Banqiao by a nudge who actually think drowned Chinese people count. In that sense, we always have a Trifecta at E&E.


Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DU AdBot (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view 
this author's profile Click to add 
this author to your buddy list Click to add 
this author to your Ignore list Tue May 07th 2024, 10:03 PM
Response to Original message
Advertisements [?]
 Top

Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Environment/Energy Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC