Peak Oil And Mirage Realism - Scoop NZ

[hatrack]

EDIT

Oil production worldwide is close to peaking. That is, we are close to the point where the all time maximum amount of oil can be pumped from the ground. After this point it is expected that oil production will decline at a rate between 3% and 7% per annum (suggested by the empirical evidence provided from existing oil fields that are already in decline). The evidence for “peak oil” as it is called is indisputable. Oil production in a variety of regions and states that are now in decline can be predictably graphed as a bell shaped curve. The first significant example was when the United States peaked in 1971. More recently the North Sea, with Norway close at its heels have peaked and are in permanent decline. Collectively the world will follow soon.

A prominent mirage realist to emerge in recent weeks is Larry Baldock, transport spokesperson for the United Future NZ party. Mr Baldock proudly announced his plans to lay asphalt in the form of a big wide double laned freeway from Kaitaia to Invercargill. Either Larry Baldock is ignorant to the issue of peak oil, an issue that the prestigious Deutsche Bank argued last December ought to be of primary concern to forward looking politicians and company chiefs, or he is wishing it will simply go away. His ignorance does not excuse his culpability but to the mirage realist bullshit is bitumen – sadly under the spectre of peak oil a single cent spent on such a project is an investment in an infrastructure that has no future. We suggest a name change for Baldock’s party. United No Future.

EDIT

The futuristic scenario from mirage realist Bryan Sinclair will never occur because the energy equation for both hydrogen and photovoltaic solar cells results in marginal if not negative net energy returns. It takes more oil equivalent energy to make a solar cell than the cell ever returns in its lifetime. Hydrogen requires large amounts of natural gas, which we are currently running out of. The demand for roads is directly connected to oil and the internal combustion engine. Less oil will result in less demand for roads. As oil becomes expensive and scarce and as we experience shortages, much to the National Party’s dismay cars will disappear from roads.

The godfather of mirage realism has to be the International Energy Agency (IEA) whom in the face of recent prices near US$60 a barrel oil, claims by OPEC that they are pumping at capacity, evidence that the mighty Saudi Arabian fields are peaking still hope and wish that oil will peak in 2037. However just in case, the IEA are preparing a special report due to be released in a week or two that aims to prepare member nations (which includes NZ) about the need for urgent and extreme energy conservation measures if the worlds oil supply is disrupted or reduced by one to two million barrels per day (we currently consume 84 million barrels per day). Such bizarre measures suggested by the IEA include bans on privately owned motor vehicles, reduction of the working week and imposition of lower speed limits. New Zealand’s energy minister, the Hon Trevor Mallard, currently frantically keen to comply with the IEA’s strategic 90 reserve day requirement by building dozens more oil storage silos will want to seriously consider the IEA’s latest report since he will be the one breaking the news to New Zealanders that “Carless Days” is not a Mexican folk singer. "

EDIT/END

http://www.evworld.com/view.cfm?section=communique&newsid=8199

[cornermouse]

1. And just how does he think people are going to go anywhere?

Or are we just supposed to sit at home and twiddle our thumbs?

[IrateCitizen]

3. He's saying you won't have much choice in the matter.

Do you really believe that we can hit peak oil and start sliding down the other side, while STILL maintaining an auto-centric culture? Do you really believe that?

Simply put, it cannot happen. Now, there IS still time for rail networks to be installed and upgraded and the like, but that time is rapidly decreasing.

If you want to blame someone for twiddling their thumbs, don't blame the guy who's trying to point out reality to you. Blame the politicians who were too sycophantic to industry to do something about this (higher CAFE standards and improved public transit, anyone?) before it reached crisis proportions.

[cornermouse]

7. What I got from what I read was that there is NO alternative.

People will have only two choices foot or pedal cycle. Rail networks also use gas. That's not going to be the long term solution either.

Not everyone can live next door to their job, or for that matter, in the same town. What little I read gave no solutions and appeared to have no practicality connected to it.

And while I do believe that there is a finite amount of oil, I also think this peak oil thing is really convenient. It makes me wonder.

If that's not an answer you like. Too bad. Get nasty with someone else.

[Trillo]

2. I wonder whether a statement is true.

"It takes more oil equivalent energy to make a solar cell than the cell ever returns in its lifetime. "

Back in the late 80s (or thereabouts, maybe early 90s) the Discovery Channel ran a program about a new laser solar cell manufacturing technique whose professors developing it claimed would reduce manufacturing costs to pennies per square foot. Of course, in the ensuing years, the retail price of solar cells didn't seem to decrease much, if at all.

A couple of years ago, 6 square feet of PV cells cost $350-500. That's a far cry from "pennies." Retail cost today is likely not based upon "cost" of production, but rather what the market will bring.

A recent Australian discovery:
http://www.unsw.edu.au/news/adv/articles/2004/aug/Solar_hydrogen.html

[GumboYaYa]

4. It is not true, that is a myth that the worst of the doom and gloomers

like to throw out (not that I don't think peak oil is a massive problem waiting to smack us if we do nothing).

The energy payback for current solar technology is around four years (http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy99osti/24619.pdf). Given that the systems have a life in excess of 20 years, any claims that solar uses more energy than it produces are just fear mongering.

[cprise]

6. Scoop and EVworld carrying this crap?

I would not expect that from them.

[Coastie for Truth]

5. I worked in a PV Cell fab for seven years

(actually a venture fund-think tank-technology incubator in the alternative, green, renewable energy arena - the PV fab was the back half of the building).

I do not know where those costs come from. Pick up Simon Sze's book (classic work on semiconductor devices) and go to the chapter on PV cells - compare to flat panel displays and to "wafers" (for memory chips and microprocessors).

This is conventional wisdom - that is untrue.