Chinese Meteorological Agency - W/O Effective Climate Measures, PRC Grain Output Down 37% By 2100

[hatrack]

Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) -- China’s output of grains could decline as much as 37 percent in the second half of this century if measures to counter the effects of climate change aren’t actively implemented, a weather official said. The crops affected would include wheat, corn and rice, Zheng Guoguang, head of the China Meteorological Administration, said in an article published on the agency’s Web site yesterday. Research shows that for every degree warmer the atmosphere becomes the key growing period for rice to develop properly will be shortened by an average of 7-8 days and by 17 days for the winter wheat crop, Zheng said. “Yield and quality will drop accordingly,” he said.

China’s long-term food security and social stability may be threatened unless the world’s largest grain producer invests more to fight the effects of drought, McKinsey & Co. said in a report Nov. 24. The country’s corn harvest, the world’s second- largest, plunged by 13 percent to a four-year low this year because of drought, a survey of farmers by Geneva-based SGS SA for Bloomberg showed. “By 2050, with extreme conditions, South Asia’s grain output could be cut by 30 percent and with the level of global grain stores falling sharply, it would increase the difficulty of boosting imports,” Zheng said. “Trying to make up the difference of lower output by relying on imports doesn’t look very optimistic.”

Extreme drought caused by a “high climate change scenario” could more than triple crop losses in northeast China to 13.8 million metric tons, or 12 percent of the total, by 2030, said McKinsey. This scenario assumes a doubling in severity and frequency of extreme drought, it said.

Still, the accuracy of predictions made so far ahead is difficult to judge, Ma Wenfeng, a researcher at Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultant Ltd., said today. “For a country the size of China, it’s difficult to tell whether certain weather trends will reduce or increase grains output in 50 years,” Ma said. “Some places may have reduction while other areas which previously might not be suitable for grain production can become grain producer.”

EDIT

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=alYpYphnXuEQ

[kristopher]

1. China fascinates me...

Because of trade issues and the leftovers of the Cold War, people tend to demonize them in many areas, including climate change. However I see them as an independent assessor of the problem - an entity where religious fundamentalism and vested interest in the existing energy infrastructure play little to no role in their evaluation and decision-making process.

[Dead_Parrot]

2. And, in theory...

...a centralized economy means they should be in the best position to react: The party says, "Go forth and build 100GW of wind turbines" and lo, it gets built. Probably by next Tuesday.

But there's hubris. Lots of hubris. They could bottle it, export enough hubris to power the sneers of the entire western world, and still have enough left over to built a big fucking statue made of 24-carat hubris.

Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert...

Shelly doesn't mention what they're made of, but I'll bet it's export-grade Chinese hubris.

[kristopher]

3. And why shouldn't they be proud?

From their view they've been the center of the world for 3000 years.