Australia, S. Pacific May Be Facing Another El Nino, More Drought

[hatrack]

"THERE are worrying signs the continent may be headed into another El Nino weather pattern and further drought. Strong westerly wind bursts in the South Pacific and a low Southern Oscillation Index, calculated from the fluctuations in the air pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin, have been noted by meteorologists.

Both can herald an El Nino and drought. Roger Stone, director of the Queensland Government's Climate and Systems Technologies, said it was too early for panic. "If I was talking to a farmer I would say it is too early to jump off the nearest tank stand," Dr Stone said.

Some computer models were pointing towards the possibility of an El Nino – when waters of South Pacific heat and head towards South America - "but it is still early days", he said. "We are watching it incredibly closely. We don't need another drought." Forecasting in early autumn, when farmers most want to know the climate outlook so they can plan winter cereal plantings and stock management, is still an inexact science.

"The Pacific, in a sense, is still making up its mind which way it wants to go," Dr Stone said. "And there is a lot of strange leads often that don't lead anywhere, a lot of false clues." By June or July, the forecasts would be more assured. "We can't do much at the beginning of autumn . . . That is a bit of a problem for long-term planning, but we are working on it."

EDIT

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,12472689%5E30417,00.html

[kineneb]

1. Must buy hip boots

Last time we had an El Nino year, it never seemed to stop raining. NorCal got soaked.