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"The forces that fueled last year's price hikes haven't gone away. China and India are burning as much oil as they can buy. So is the United States, whose drivers can't or won't conserve. Refineries are running close to capacity. And speculative investors are pouring money into the crude oil market, further driving up the price. Together, those forces may signal a fundamental shift in the oil and gasoline markets, many industry analysts say. With the worldwide demand for oil growing at historic rates, and with much of that growth based outside the United States, higher prices may be inescapable.
"For prices to come off substantially, we'd need to see a significant downturn in demand from China and the U.S.," said James Burkhard, director of oil market research for Cambridge Energy Research Associates. "So far, we don't see signs of any significant downturn in the world's demand growth."
Gasoline prices have followed a steady increase in the cost of crude, which is now approaching the record of $55 per barrel set last fall. Crude oil for April delivery neared $54 per barrel Monday. Prices for the two commodities don't quite move in tandem. Gasoline price hikes tend to lag behind increases in the cost of crude. So the recent run-up in oil may yet inflict further damage at the pump, even if crude prices level off.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries signaled this weekend that it is concerned about rising prices, with the cartel's president saying OPEC wants to "ensure market stability at a reasonable price." But many doubt that the organization will increase production and push prices down. In the past, OPEC tried to avoid prolonged periods of high crude prices for fear of triggering recessions around the world. But last year's run-up didn't stop China's breakneck growth and had little discernable effect on the U.S. economy."
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http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2005/03/08/GASPRICES.TMP