(Automobile) Manufacturers' electric dreams likely to stumble on forecaster's reality

[OKIsItJustMe]

http://www.detnews.com/article/20090731/OPINION03/907310425/Manufacturers--electric-dreams-likely-to-stumble-on-forecaster-s-reality

Friday, July 31, 2009
Neil Winton: European Perspective

Manufacturers' electric dreams likely to stumble on forecaster's reality

While manufacturers like Nissan of Japan jostle for the lead in the race to saturate markets with electric cars, automotive forecasters seeking to cut through the hyperbole tell a more sober story.

…

Automotive forecaster CSM Worldwide reckons that by 2015, far from Nissan's projection of 10 million global electric vehicles in 2016, there will be 2.9 million electric vehicles and hybrids. That's a market share of 3.6 percent and compares with 1.6 percent in 2009.

Pure electric, or battery cars, and plug-in hybrids will total about 400,000 in 2015. That's a global market share of 0.5 percent.

Automotive forecaster J.D. Power agrees with the 0.5 percent figure.

…

[madrchsod]

1. do`t burst the bubble of those who think...

that electric cars will rule the roads in the future.until cheap reliable long range battery packs are developed petroleum or bio based fuels will be the prime power plant to propel autos and trucks.

[madokie]

3. I don't believe a minute of that

with the battery technology we have now we could do about 75% of our coming and goings with electric powered vehicles. We can't wait to buy EV and I know others who are just like we are on this. Ev's are coming and thats a fact.

[OKIsItJustMe]

5. They may be coming, the question is, "How fast?" (We're only talking about 5-6 years' sales here…)

For example, I notice with amusement the description of Nissan's "LEAF" as "affordable" (rather than explicitly stating a price.)

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/uptospeed/2009/08/nissan-throws-an-ev-thunderbolt-the-leaf-.html

…

As for the LEAF, the biggest unknown yet is cost. Nissan officials have quietly hinted at a price less than $30,000 retail (that’s before any tax credits), the goal being to make the EV a no-cost option. That would be the LEAF’s greatest trick.

The last I read, the battery pack for GM's "Volt" (with a 60 mile range) was estimated to cost about $8,000. So, let's assume that Nissan's pack (with a 100 mile range) will cost about $12,000. (That's for the battery pack, not the car.)

With prices like that, people may want an EV, but that doesn't mean they will buy an EV.

[kristopher]

2. Is this the premier auto market forecasting group

...that prepared global automakers for the petroleum price run-up in 2006/7/8 by propelling the expansion of SUV production?

[excess_3]

4. wishful thinking from the makers of gasoline fueled engines .n/t