Holy Solar, Batman! It's Finally Happening!

[garybeck]

Holy Solar, Batman! It's Finally Happening!

When I first got involved in solar energy 20 years ago, we used to dream of huge utility-scale solar arrays that would someday make power on the megawatt scale. There were a very small number of them in the world, and most were experimental like the PVUSA and Carrizo sites. We dreamed of more and larger solar power plants, making significant power for our country and powering homes just like other power plants. Many of us wondered if it would ever happen.

Well it’s happening! Several are online now — the biggest one in the US currently is a 14 megawatt plant at the Nellis Air Force Base. Many more large utility scale solar power plants are being planned, designed, and built. The race is on for the biggest solar power plants in the world and it’s anybody’s guess what will be the biggest one in 5 years from now. Just look at all the new huge plants being planned:

:bluebox: Starwood Solar 1, a 290 Megawatt solar thermal power plant due to be completed by 2013, will be the largest “dispatched” solar power plant in the world.

:bluebox: Martin Next Generation Solar Energy Center, a 75 Megawatt solar thermal power plant being built by Florida Power and Light, will be the second largest in the world and will power 11,000 homes.

:bluebox: Florida Power and Light is also planning on building the largest photovoltaic solar power plant in the world, a 25 Megawatt plant using SunPower’s 20% efficient panels.

:bluebox: A 40 megawatt photovoltaic plant is going in Ontario, Canada.

:bluebox: Cleantech America’s 80 megawatt (MW) planned solar farm will be among the largest photovoltaic solar utility-scale electric projects in the country upon completion in 2013. Scheduled to be developed in phases, with 20 megawatts (MW) coming online in 2011, 20 MW in 2012 and 40 MW in 2013.

:bluebox: The Army plans to install a 500-megawatt solar thermal power farm at a Fort Irwin, Calif., base as part of its bid to reduce a $3 billion annual energy bill. The Army’s solar thermal system would eclipse the 14 megawatts at Nellis Air Force Base near Las Vegas, currently the largest U.S. solar photovoltaic installation.

:bluebox: PG&E is putting in two huge photovoltaic power plants totalling 800 megawatts. According to the contracts signed, 550 Megawatts are from OptiSolar’s amorphous solar cells and 250 megawatts are from SunPower.

:bluebox: Even cold cloudy Vermont, the first utility-scale solar power plant in the state is going up this summer.

:bluebox: An amazing 850 megawatt solar stirling engine power plant near Victorville, California. According to the company building the site, permitting process is going forward and construction will begin next year.

Why is it happening now? A variety of factors have contributed. First, the cost of solar has come down a bit in the last 20 years. There are also grants and tax incentives available for commercial applications. Another factor is...

more, including links to each project listed:
http://solarbus.org/blog/?p=61

[meegbear]

1. Priceless Collection of Etruscan Snoods!

:thumbsup:

[garybeck]

2. excuse my ignorance but

what the heck is an Etruscan Snoods?

[On the Road]

8. It Would Appear to be a Pop Culture Reference

to a 1966 episode of the Batman TV show inspired by the thread title:

Robin: Holy priceless collection of Etruscan snoods!

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0059968/quotes

A Snood has several definitions but is probably a piece of headgear -- a ribbon or a net worn only over the back portion of the head,

[meegbear]

9. You are correct, oh great one.

[roody]

3. I'm still partial to the nine panels on my roof.

[garybeck]

6. you're a solar pioneer !

kudos.

i've been doing this for 20 years and I only own 4 solar panels on the roof of my bus. I've been waiting for solar tax credits and stuff like this to happen so i can afford them for my house. i think it's coming soon.

[roody]

13. I got California credits eight years ago, plus a nice rebate

from the utility company.

[necso]

4. Solar stirling engines appear to have real potential.

Tesserasolar (Victorville) claims "Record-setting 31.25% Sun-to-Grid Electricity Conversion."

[Deja Q]

5. In America, some jackass would spray paint graffiti all over the panels

[garybeck]

7. probably true, but

these big arrays have plenty of barbed wire fence around them. there's a huge investment and it has to be protected

[OKIsItJustMe]

10. Do you have any evidence to support this?

There are already several solar projects in place in the US. How many of them have been spray painted with graffiti?

[vincna]

11. You have a New York logo...

and you're asking that question? Have you ever been on the subway or looked at the sound walls and bridge abutments around the city?

[garybeck]

12. the panels are not accessible to spray painters.

you can't put spray paint on a nuclear power cooling tower and you can't do it on a solar panel either. so let's not get into disagreements about moot points.

[OKIsItJustMe]

16. Actually, I have (although I live far from NYC, and like it that way…)

Painting on a subway car, a wall or a bridge abutment does not hamper its function.

To find something analogous, you'd need to tell me that the residents of NYC are cutting power cables, or bridge supports, or burning subway cars.

(You see my point?)

[The Croquist]

14. A question

You said that "the cost of solar has come down a bit in the last 20 years". I thought that when adjusted for inflation it has come down a boatload and looks to continue to drop (kind of like computer costs). Since it is competing with power plants that have also gone up with inflation, not to mention fuel costs, that's the important thing.

I could look it up and come up with some questionable numbers but it sounds like we've got people on this thread that are really into it so I suspect that they know more then me.

[garybeck]

15. solar pricing

actually the retail price of solar panels hasn't changed much over the last 10-20 years.

i just looked up an old catalog and found a 75 watt panel for $500, that comes to $6.66 per watt. By today's standard that's still good deal.

so that's one thing that hasn't changed much.

[The Croquist]

18. But unchanged rocks compared to inflation

Oil prices:
1989 (12 month average) $18.33 per barrel
1999 (12 month average) $16.55 per barrel
2009 (4 month average) $36.59 per barrel (currently about $69.00 per barrel)

Inflation:
Purchasing parity
100 dollars in 1989 costs 176.19 today.
100 dollars in 1999 costs 129.77 today.

But I am disappointed. I thought they came down more then that.

[bananas]

20. Historical data, 1975-2006 and 2001-2009

Data tables are at the links:

http://www.solarbuzz.com/Moduleprices.htm


http://www.earth-policy.org/Indicators/Solar/2007_data.htm



http://www.earthpolicy.org/Indicators/Solar/2007.htm
Production of photovoltaics (PV) jumped to 3,800 megawatts worldwide in 2007, up an estimated 50 percent over 2006. At the end of the year, according to preliminary data, cumulative global production stood at 12,400 megawatts, enough to power 2.4 million U.S. homes. Growing by an impressive average of 48 percent each year since 2002, PV production has been doubling every two years, making it the world’s fastest-growing energy source.

[bananas]

22. Projections for the next few years

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaics

Grid parity, the point at which photovoltaic electricity is equal to or cheaper than grid power, is achieved first in areas with abundant sun and high costs for electricity such as in California and Japan.<75>

Grid parity has been reached in Hawaii and other islands that otherwise use fossil fuel (diesel fuel) to produce electricity, and most of the US is expected to reach grid parity by 2015.<76><77>

General Electric's Chief Engineer predicts grid parity without subsidies in sunny parts of the United States by around 2015. Other companies predict an earlier date:<78> the cost of solar power will be below grid parity for more than half of residential customers and 10% of commercial customers in the OECD, as long as grid electricity prices do not decrease through 2010.<79>

The fully-loaded cost (cost not price) of solar electricity is $0.25/kWh or less in most of the OECD countries. By late 2011, the fully-loaded cost is likely to fall below $0.15/kWh for most of the OECD and reach $0.10/kWh in sunnier regions.

[Kablooie]

17. But isn't that Kim Il Jung in the front of the photo there?

and I've installed some solar lights in my garden.

[NNadir]

19. Actually, if you look into it, a real indication of what's actually happening is

dictated by the continuous fact that solar power advocates continuously talk in peak "Watts" as opposed to units of energy.

Given that the best capacity utilization for solar is about 20%, an 800 mega"watt" power plant is about the same as a 160 watt dangerous natural gas plant, except that the gas plant is reliable.

Right near the Vermont border, in North Adams, MA, the capacity utilization of another (very expensive) solar PV system is 10.6%.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/3/1/703151/-Live,-From-the-Massachusetts-Museum-of-Contemporary-Art:-The-Solar-System">Live, From the Massachusetts Museum of Contemporary Art: The Solar System.

We've been hearing about how "it's finally happening" and "world's largest solar plant" stuff here for many, many, many, many years now.

There must have been tens of thousands of these kinds of posts. Never underestimate the power of denial.

[bananas]

21. A real indication of what's actually happening is how this graph is going vertical

Yes, it is happening, and the reason we keep hearing about the "world's largest solar plant" is because during exponential growth the plants keep getting bigger and bigger.