Plug-in hybrids may be limited by the vehicle price, recharge time and battery durability - Toyota

[JohnWxy]

While Toyota is planning on building 500 plug-in Priuses with lithium-ion batteries to be delivered to global test fleets starting this year, they seem to have some reservations about plug-ins.

http://www.automonster.ca/?p=1055

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Toyota estimates sales of hybrids that can be recharged at household outlets may be 50,000 units a year at most and could be as few as 3,500, Bill Reinert, U.S. national manager for advanced technology, told a National Academy of Sciences panel today in Washington. Sales of Toyota’s Prius, the best-selling gasoline-electric vehicle, were almost 159,000 last year.

A market for the plug-in electric hybrid vehicles “will emerge, but their success depends on advantages over existing hybrids,” Reinert said in prepared remarks. “There is a great deal of variation on how current PHEVs perform in real-world conditions.”

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Tests of Priuses fitted with $10,000 lithium-ion packs from battery maker A123 Systems Inc. found fuel economy rose only to the mid- to low 50 miles per gallon from the standard Prius’s 46 mpg rating, Toyota said. The results of the tests by Google Inc.’s Google.Org, Consumer Reports and Portland General Electric include energy used to recharge the extra batteries.

The automaker also cited recent studies by Duke University and Carnegie Mellon University showing plug-ins may provide only limited reduction of greenhouse gases compared with current hybrids such as Prius that don’t need to be plugged in.

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http://www.autoweek.com/article/20090202/CARNEWS/902029995">Toyota says Prius plug-in gets 65 mpg

[The Croquist]

1. I drive a 2000 Toyota Celica and get 33 MPG overall

It has great pickup and I will drive at 75 - 80 MPH on the highway. The problem with plug ins is that the electricity comes from a power plant. I've got no problem but people think that by plugging a car in makes it "Carbon Free". That is not the case.

I'm disappointed in their sale estimates but they know more then I do. I read the article about them getting 65 MPG but I have to wonder. To accurately measure mileage you need to consider all sources of power. When you plug it in you are using a power plant's output. In my case that power plant is coal. I get a zillion miles per gallon while walking. Is that a fair comparison?

[kristopher]

2. John, John the ethanol man...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=arvp1GgT74o8&refer=japan
The OP selectively quotes the blog linked to, which also selectively quotes a Bloomberg article that, in total, presents a somewhat different picture of the status of the plug-in hybrid market (Bloomberg article is a good read btw). While it is an emerging technology and faces many of the hurdles associated with such status, the Bloomberg article makes clear that Toyota is justifying their stance by citing a failed attempt with PHEV in 2001, a time when we all know that the public and political view of alternatives to the internal combustion engine were much different than today.

There is also the fact that there are competing technological platforms involved, including the direct threat to the future of the Prius technology that is represented by competition from PHEV technology. So citing the plans of Toyota may give a perspective that has legitimate criticism of PHEV technology; or it may instead represent the view of a company that is in a less-than-ideal competitive position as these technologies are showcased over the next few years.

One thing that is certain, the vital role of PHEV in the adoption of a totally renewable energy infrastructure based on wind, solar etc., is one that cannot be fulfilled by the technology that is under the hood of the Prius. So in the long run the potential difference between what the two transportation platforms can make to greenhouse gas emissions is vastly larger than the immediate small advantage that PHEVs already deliver.

This role in a renewable economy is so vital that it has motivated Jon Wellinghoff, chairman of the regulatory agency (FERC) in charge of ensuring the stability and dependability of the nation's electric supply, to repeatedly give full throated support to development of PHEV technology as the foundation of the nation's transportation infrastructure. No technology has such broad support from the governmental and academic renewable energy sector as does the PHEV.

So the perspective attributed to Toyota in the Bloomberg article may be a legitimate expression of their honest, full and sincere statement of their future intentions based on their overall evaluation; then again it may not for we are aiming to get not only off oil, but also coal. Toyota knows that full well.

[madokie]

3. Our next purchase is hopefully going to be an EV

not a hybrid. We're going to always need our truck, f150, for some things so it can cover for us on the 5 percent or so of driving that we do that would be more than say 40 or 50 miles per day. My wife wants me to put together us an EV like our neighbors has done but I'm holding out for a store bought one so as to get in on the newer technology that they have to offer, compared to what I would put together myself.