HOw much time does anybody really think we have.

[JohnWxy]

The Greenland ice sheets are accelerating in there movement towards the coast.

the Antarctic ice shelfs are breaking away which means the ice sitting on the land will start slowly sliding into the oceans.

The rapidly melting Ice in the Arctic along with melting ice on Greenland will someday (how soon? nobody knows for sure) alter the flow of the Gulf Stream towards Europe.

The tundra is rising in temperature producing increased decaying plant material and methane release. Methane is much more potent at heat trapping than CO2.

The oceans are acidifying more rapidly than any oceanographers anticipated. This threatens life in the oceans - a significant source of protein for the world. (time frame for this nobody is sure of).

Glaciers all over the Earth are melting meaning water supplies to many areas will be reduced.

All of these affects are accelerating and in the last few years they have been accelerating even faster than most climate scientists thought they would. The models are going to have to be revised for the various feed-back loops.


NOw there are major areas of human activity that produce CO2. Energy production and transportation are two of the biggest. For energy procuction the quickest impact route we can take is to rapidly build Wind Power to replace coal. (energy storage technologies exist: check VRB Power).

In the area of transportation, plug-in hybrid technology is extremely promising. But realistically, it's going to take 20 to 30 years before electric cars are going to make a significant (say 30% to 40% of gasoline consumption saved/eliminated) impact on gasoline consumption: http://www.geocities.com/jwalkerxy/voltz.xls

Does anybody think we really have that long to reduce gas consumption 30% - 40%? I think we need to do something long before that.

What is needed is to increase production of ethanol as rapidly as possible anyway we can. Use Brazilian ethanol, import sugar from Mexico and make ethanol from that. Hopefully, we will get cellulosic economically viable in a few years and start producing ethanol from cellulosic sources. We should try to get ethanol production up to 30% of total transportation fuel needs as rapidly as possible. It might be possible to do this is ten years.

NOw in addition to this we need to support production of the Ford ecoBoost engine which when run on ethanol plus gasoline will reduce gasoline consumption 25% to 30% and only costs about $1,000 extra, per copy. This is much more affordable and therefor more can be more rapidly adopted in large numbers. General MOtors has an agreement with Ford to share engine technologies.

If you produced 30% of your fuel needs as ethanol of that, one sixth (5% of the total fuel requirement) would be used as E85 and directly injected in the ecoBoost engines. THis would produce a 25% to 30% reeduction in gas consumption. YOu would have another 25% to blend with the rest of the gas which would replace 25% of the total gas supply. So the total effect would be 25% - 30% reduction plus the 25% blended with the gas for a total replacement of 50% to 55% of the gasoline consumed and the same reduction in CO2 production. We could perhaps get the ethanol production to 30% of total transportation fuel demand in 10 years. It would take longer of course to get the ecoBoost engine in use in large numbers but at $1,000 a copy it should be bought in large numbers a lot faster than the typical hybrid car.

Now we would still keep working on developing the hybrids (this would contribute to the replacement of gasoline with ethanol) but we really cannot wait 20 to 30 years to start having a significant impact on CO2 production. I think we are too close to the point where the heating affects of CO2 will get beyond our ability to turn it around.

[tavalon]

1. I don't know about ethanol

I hate to say it but the more important thing to getting the system back in balance is to reduce the number of humans. Now, we can't really talk about that because, well, we can't. Honestly, though, I think our Earth will cull this herd. It's just part of the auto feedback loop.

[notesdev]

2. Heating effects

After freezing my ass off quite a few times this winter, I could use a bit of that.

[kestrel91316]

3. I am glad I did not have children. I used to just worry about my niece and

nephew's futures. Now I am increasingly worried about my own. I am 52. Things are accelerating off a cliff.

[tech3149]

8. I'm just a bit older than you and in a similar situation

My major focus in life is to be sure my 87 y/o parents don't have anything to worry about. I still have my ex as the beneficiary for my investments (if there's anything left). When I change it, it will be to my niece and my ex's niece.
I don't plan on living as long as my parents and guess I'll go down in flames. Life's not worth much when you don't have anyone to share it with. It may sound sad but it's just dealing with reality.

[JohnWxy]

21. Addendum: for those who are not ready to crawl into a hole - obama's contact page:

http://change.gov/page/s/yourvision

or here: http://www.whitehouse.gov/Contact/


We need to aggressively do those things that produce results NOW. We can still work on those technologies (e.g. electric cars) that have more potent affects on CO2 emissions but we cannot wait 20 years till they start to have a significant impact. I'm afraid that will be too late.

IF you think we need to take action now send your message to him and tell him. Who knows, you might be the one to get us to a tippiing point to convince him we need to initiate aggressive action now to do what is possible right now. Anything we do now will buy us some time to impliment the more advanced technologies.

[pscot]

4. Like the song says "It's later than you think".

If we shut down all coal fired power plants today, it would be too late to stop the two to four degrees of warming already baked in the cake. In point of fact, the Chinese are still building new coal fired plants as fast as they can. Here at home, the Republicons, and some Democrats, are trying to strangle the idea of carbon caps in it's crib. Vested interests will play on public fears of higher fuel and power prices to create a huge log jam. I don't see serious Congressional action until the tidal basin is slopping over onto the mall or methane firestorms are raging across the tundra. by the time everbody "gets it", it will be too late. By 2030 we'll be facing hard times. By 2075 we'll have our backs to the wall, and there will be fewer of us.

[Delphinus]

12. I think your 2030 date is way too optimistic.

I'm thinking we're all going to get it within the next eight to ten years - if it takes that long.

[Barrett808]

5. Jeremy Jackson says the oceans will be dead in 30 years

So, not much longer than that.

[Lance31]

6. 15 years

[phantom power]

7. The new world is coming.

Or, maybe the very old world is coming again.

Either way.

[tom_paine]

9. Hey, let's look at the bright side. We can now have a "do-over" of the Permian

and get everything right we didn't get right last time.

How many people or planets are given a literal second chance to revisit their past glory days of their youth?

:sarcasm:

[pscot]

13. Mass extinction in a nutshell

I read the preface and bookmarked the rest. Since I quit drinking, I'm not sure I'll be able to get through it all.

[phantom power]

14. Probably the most gloomy of all climate change scenarios.

For us and the current biosphere. As tom_paine pointed out, we might get several new phyla out of it, like last time.

Biodiversity!

[tama]

10. Multiple variables interacting

- Climate change allready melting glaciers everywhere and fast, seas have apparently reached level of acidicity that cannot absorb anymore CO2
- Usable water has peaked allready, ie. consumption surpassing renewal of water (<- minus polluting and effects of climate change)
- Peak Oil plateau is here and now, according to IEA(!!!) downslope starting in just couple years.

- On the "positive" side the debt bubble called "economy" that has been seriously in making since 1980 bursted in 2000 and the desperate attempt to reinflate it proved vain in 2008. Although many are starting to wake up, the top layers of the pyramid scam called "economy" have not abandonded the growth ideology and are doing their best to deliver abrupt and total collapse of Western "civilization" and then some - very or relatively soon.

So how much time do *we* have? depends on the definition of *we*...

According to Buddhism, *we* have all the time in the world to suffer the consequenses of Karma. :)

[GliderGuider]

11. I'll go out on a limb here and say "None".

We are out of time. Last year, when I said we had 5 years left in which to make radical changes, I was wrong. Things had already gone much further than I realized.

Now is the time.

Time to wake up;
Time to understand what is happening;
Time to understand why it happened;
Time to accept the change;
Time to accept that we caused it;
Time to forgive ourselves;
Time to make peace with our personal gods;
Time to reach out;
Time to reach in;
Time to re-connect;
Time to begin the healing;
Time to remember that every ending contains the seed of a new beginning.

Now is the time.

[tama]

19. Time to give thanks

for each moment of being, for each moment of time.

Time to stop fearing, fearing death and loosing what one holds valuable, fearing future. Time is now, each moment arises and ceases as now.

[NickB79]

15. At this point, little things like wind turbines and ethanol won't cut it anymore

The ONLY thing that will make a difference is a massive carbon sequestration program, to the point that we are actually storing MORE carbon than we are releasing. And this also has to take into account the methane being released from thawing permafrost that we have caused. Simply slowing the rate of growth in carbon emissions won't cut it anymore. Even if we were able to simply maintain CO2 at current levels, we will still lose the oceans and the ice caps.

We have passed the point of no return.

[poopfuel]

16. carbon sequestration can be done with small integrated ethanol manufacturing

plants all over the U.S. A sampling from a review of David Blume's book:

" In semiarid areas where the temperature goes no lower than 0 degrees F you can plant an overstory of mesquite to provide both 340 gallons of alcohol per acre from the pods and fuel the plant with coppiced branches from the tree. In the understory you plant perennial Opuntia (nopales) thornless cactus, and between there and the dripline and beyond you plant the starchy root crop, Buffalo Gourd, for a total yield of far over 1000 gallons per acre without irrigation."....

Snip

"It is absolutely a massive carbon sink. Pretty much all arid country crops put the majority of their growth underground and have a robust mycorhyzzal feeding regime. Perhaps 80+% of carbon produced in the top growth is exuded for rhizosphere associates. Mesquite is unique in that a large portion of its root burrows deep to support it with water extracted from far below. There have been recorded instances of mesquite going down 160 feet for water."

http://www.alcoholcanbeagas.com/book_menu/360/277/380/403

No question we need carbon negative strategies. Any practical alternatives, other than something like the above?

[JohnWxy]

20. very interesting and a not fatalistic! thanks! Here is Pres. Obama's contact page:

http://change.gov/page/s/yourvision

We need to start doing whatever we can right now. A start in that direction is for people to contact the Pres. and let him know what you think.

[IrateCitizen]

17. DOOOOOOMMMMMMM!!!!!!

Don your hair shirt and wait for the final days! The end is nigh!!!!

:evilgrin:

Seriously, though... our lives will change over the next ten years in ways that none of us can truly comprehend. Most of all, they will become much more local and more dependent upon true extended family and community networks.

"Modern" civilization will, in many ways, become destined for the history books. However, human beings will muddle along as they always have -- perhaps at a much reduced population after about a century or so of real transition time to the "post-industrial" or "scarce-industrial," but we will muddle along nonetheless.

[hatrack]

18. I don't know - it's hard to put a date on concepts like "High-Octane Self-Fuckage"

:shrug:

[JohnWxy]

22. Addendum: for those who are not ready to crawl into a hole & die - obama's contact page:

http://change.gov/page/s/yourvision

or here: http://www.whitehouse.gov/Contact/


We need to aggressively do those things that produce results NOW. We can still work on those technologies (e.g. electric cars) that have more potent affects on CO2 emissions but we cannot wait 20 years till they start to have a significant impact. I'm afraid that will be too late.

IF you think we need to take action now send your message to him and tell him. Who knows, you might be the one to get us to a tippiing point to convince him we need to initiate aggressive action now to do what is possible right now. Anything we do now will buy us some time to impliment the more advanced technologies.

YOu can still whine on DU but if you send a comment to the PResident you just might have some affect on the situation.

[Journeyman]

23. "If I should remark that in the Pacific depths. . .

bubbles trickle ominously through concrete boxes,
what would you answer?"

From Evan S. Connell's Points for a Compass Rose (1973) . . .


The lesson to learn (if there's one to learn at all) is that we began to consider the need to do something well past the required hour.

[vanboggie]

24. Darn Mayans

My guess would be that we have till about 2012. :scared:

[burythehatchet]

25. 2012. Its probably just a coinkidink, but just a little creepy. I think by 2012

a combination of economic collapse and environmental damage rendering much of currently arable land useless will lead to a new era for humanity. We are likely to see this before we die.

[pscot]

26. So this same question posted in GD

falls off the first page in an hour and 20 minutes, with one response; a suggestion that we counter rising sea levels by building desalination plants. Bozoville.

[bvar22]

27. The "quickest" way to address energy problems....

...is a national conservation movement.

Have you seen the satellite photos of the US after dark?

I had the opportunity to live on a solar powered Houseboat for 3 years.
Living on Solar Power WILL raise your awareness.
It is amazing the amount of electricity that is squandered away in the USA.


If everyone made the reductions in electricity consumption that is required by living on Solar Power....we wouldn't need to live on Solar Power.