Severe Space Weather - what might happen to high-tech grid in the event of a 'super solar flare'

[BridgeTheGap]

January 21, 2009:
Did you know a solar flare can make your toilet stop working?

That's the surprising conclusion of a NASA-funded study by the National Academy of Sciences entitled Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts. In the 132-page report, experts detailed what might happen to our modern, high-tech society in the event of a "super solar flare" followed by an extreme geomagnetic storm. They found that almost nothing is immune from space weather—not even the water in your bathroom.

The problem begins with the electric power grid. "Electric power is modern society's cornerstone technology on which virtually all other infrastructures and services depend," the report notes. Yet it is particularly vulnerable to bad space weather. Ground currents induced during geomagnetic storms can actually melt the copper windings of transformers at the heart of many power distribution systems. Sprawling power lines act like antennas, picking up the currents and spreading the problem over a wide area. The most famous geomagnetic power outage happened during a space storm in March 1989 when six million people in Quebec lost power for 9 hours: image.

According to the report, power grids may be more vulnerable than ever. The problem is interconnectedness. In recent years, utilities have joined grids together to allow long-distance transmission of low-cost power to areas of sudden demand. On a hot summer day in California, for instance, people in Los Angeles might be running their air conditioners on power routed from Oregon. It makes economic sense—but not necessarily geomagnetic sense. Interconnectedness makes the system susceptible to wide-ranging "cascade failures."

To estimate the scale of such a failure, report co-author John Kappenmann of the Metatech Corporation looked at the great geomagnetic storm of May 1921, which produced ground currents as much as ten times stronger than the 1989 Quebec storm, and modeled its effect on the modern power grid. He found more than 350 transformers at risk of permanent damage and 130 million people without power. The loss of electricity would ripple across the social infrastructure with "water distribution affected within several hours; perishable foods and medications lost in 12-24 hours; loss of heating/air conditioning, sewage disposal, phone service, fuel re-supply and so on."

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/21jan_severespaceweather.htm?list128796

[bananas]

1. Areas of probable collapse

Above: What if the May 1921 superstorm occurred today? A US map of vulnerable transformers with areas of probable system collapse encircled. A state-by-state map of transformer vulnerability is also available: click here. Credit: National Academy of Sciences.

[PVnRT]

2. Which is why we need more than the paltry $90B that's being offered

for infrastructure improvements under the current version of the stimulus package.

The toilets won't fail right away, only when there is no longer any back pressure in the line from the closest water tower.

[groovedaddy]

3. This makes the case for more localized sources, say your roof top, for example.

This same reasoning has cropped up after ice storms and other natural disasters. It's way past time to pursue this OR will wait for the inevitable global disaster?

[PVnRT]

4. This is America, where we react instead of preventing

Just look at our entire health care system.

[groovedaddy]

5. True enough, BUT we do have a new forward looking administration! n.t

[comtec]

6. very interesting....

too bad no one bothered to look at the effects here in Europe, where most of the continent is interconnected.

many countries get their power from the nuclear plants in Belgium and France, which means mass interconnectivity.

however being that Europe actually invests in infrastructure - and has a fair amount of T-storms in the summer, I imagine this has already been taken care of as best can be expected.... I hope.