Wind could renew manufacturing - Demand for turbines outstrips supply

[jpak]

http://www.delawareonline.com/article/20081130/NEWS02/311300011

Even as more than 1,000 workers get ready to walk out of Chrysler LLC's Newark car plant for the final time next month, state economic development officials and some business leaders think manufacturing still has a future in Delaware.

With a growing number of states along the Eastern Seaboard turning to wind power for a portion of their electricity needs, the demand for the parts that make up wind turbines -- the tower, gearbox and blades -- is rising much faster than supply.

That is doubly true for the huge turbine structures needed for offshore wind farms such as the one Bluewater Wind plans to build off Rehoboth Beach, or farms developers want to erect in ocean waters off New Jersey, Rhode Island and Massachusetts.

The parts for offshore wind turbines right now would need to be imported from Europe, because there are no U.S. production facilities making the equipment. The leading manufacturers are Vestas in Denmark and Siemens in Germany.

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[HillWilliam]

1. We priced a consumer-sized one at the beginning of this

year and were quoted about $750. About 6 weeks ago we thought we were ready to buy and erect the first one for our farm. HAH! New price for the same gadget: $3500. Half of the idea is to keep power out of the hands of the consumer and have it remain concentrated in the hands of megabusiness.

The land of the free? Not bloody likely.

[kristopher]

3. It isn't a conspiracy billyboy

It is called "economies of scale". If I put up a 265 foot tower with a turbine generating a maximum of 6Mw it costs a lot more money than a 50 foot tower with a 75kw unit you might put on an isolated farm. However, if you look at cost divided by the value of the production, the big unit is actually much cheaper in the long run. To make it even more inexpensive, you use the same resources you gathered to put up a single one, and spread the costs of those resources out over 200-300 towers and turbines.

One last point relates to the differences in wind at 50 feet and 250-400 feet - there is a big one and it is much more important than most people realize. For example, if that 75kw turbine produces 7kw in 7mph wind most people would assume it produces 14kw in a 14mph wind. Actually though, in a 14mph wind it would produce 56kw (an 8X increase). I mention this to show the added value of spending money get the turbine high in the air.

The wind power drives the size of the tower, and the size of the tower drives the size of the turbine and they all contribute to the overall cost, which determines the cost per kilowatt for the electricity produced. The small turbines have been producing electricity for $0.30 - $0.50 cents a kw for a long time and they still do. However, the large ones are now down to between $0.04 - -$0.10 per Kw.

It's not a conspiracy, people usually just don't want to pay what it costs to generate electricity from small turbines.

[kristopher]

4. One more thing...

Exactly what turbine did you price and where did you get the quote?

The term "lowball" refers to a business practice where someone who knows they can't get your business now will give you an artificially low price in order to get you to return when you are ready to buy. They won't be able to sell at that price but the idea is that neither can anyone else. It at least gives the seller a second chance at you when you are actually ready to make a purchase.

[ElectricGrid]

5. What are you talking about??

I can get as many 500W wind turbines as I want for that price. Don't let that price fool you. Total installed price, with all the secondary components, is about $3000 to $4000 if you do the wiring yourself.

[HillWilliam]

6. Well, actually, now we're talking

Vertical or horizontal?

And lowballing seems to have played less in the previous quote than an increase in demand. They manufacturer we spoke with earlier very pointedly (and not a little smugly) said it's what his traffic would bear. It's difficult to know who's telling the truth at this point, since almost no one will either quote you straight out from a bill of material, like you'd buy any other kind of equipment or start any other project. I've run into an awful lot of disagreeable, disreputable sorts who are glad to send people crawling all over your property or to up-sell you a bunch of shyte. I'm not interested in that.

I don't mind paying a fair price for a good product. I'm not looking to solve my problem at once. I'm looking at a 10-year, ease myself from the grid, start with some backup plan because I live in a rural area where power during the winter is dirty-to-gone a lot of the time. I don't want to incur a huge debt; NC doesn't have great incentives, nor is our co-op very cooperative. There are plenty of incentives for municipalities and businesses. In NC, there are none for consumers. I may be able to qualify, though, when I can get my farm incorporated which will be another 3 to 5 years.

Regardless, I have to lay my plans and understand my budget and options now. My partner and I have been researching for the past 3 years and it seems murkier than ever and it is very frustrating.

[kristopher]

7. Hold off for 12 months.

Give the new administration time to put new policies into effect.

[HillWilliam]

8. That's been our take on it

hoping for some green relief. We've been putting some bugs in our state-level Rep's and Senator's ears, though Duke Energy has some high-powered money to throw at the General Assembly. Our Rep is also rural and more sensitive to rural issues, like getting co-generation and Internet into our hands out here in the boonies. He's also willing to entertain the idea of bringing some of the incentives down from the "small business and small municipality" model toward farms. How far that will go in committee, I don't know yet. But I'm not letting up. Other states have a lot better incentive models than NC; maybe we can shame the GA into expanding their programs.

[joshcryer]

9. Got a link for that? Pretty great if so.

[madokie]

2. I see the big assed blades and towers on the hiways all the time around here

Haven't seen any flying other than on the hiways though.

[Not Sure]

10. Word around the campfire in these parts

is that Trinity Industries, a railcar builder, will retool one of their DFW area facilities to manufacture wind turbine towers under their subsidiary Trinity Structural Towers. It would be nice to see an expansion of turbine manufacturing to include the blades and generators.