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WASHINGTON - When a 1991 cholera outbreak that killed thousands in Peru was traced to plankton blooms fueled by warmer-than-usual coastal waters, linking epidemics to climate change was a new idea.
Now, scientists say, it is a near-certainty that global warming will drive significant increases in waterborne diseases around the world.
Rainfalls will be heavier, triggering sewage overflows, contaminating drinking water and endangering beachgoers. Higher lake and ocean temperatures will cause bacteria, parasites, and algal blooms to flourish. Warmer weather and heavier rains also will mean more mosquitoes, which can carry West Nile virus, malaria, and dengue fever. Fresh produce and shellfish are more likely to become contaminated.
Heavier rainfalls are one of the most agreed-upon effects of climate change. The frequency of intense rainfalls has increased notably in the Midwest, the Northeast, and Alaska, and the trend will accelerate, said the 2007 report of the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
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From 1948 to 1994, heavy rainfall was correlated with more than half of the nation's outbreaks of waterborne illness, according to a 1991 study commissioned by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). In one of the worst, torrential rains in Milwaukee in 1993 triggered a sewage release that exposed 403,000 people to cryptosporidium, a protozoan parasite transmitted in fecal matter. Fifty-four people died.
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"Here we are in a wealthy country with a very strong public health infrastructure," said Jonathan Patz, a professor of environmental studies and population health sciences at the University of Wisconsin at Madison. "But we need to realize it's not as strong as we thought it was, and water systems really need tremendous resources for upkeep in the face of climate change."
A report last week by the National Research Council concluded the EPA's storm-water program needs major overhauls to deal with increasing runoff, including a more integrated permitting system based on watersheds and a focus on land use by growing municipalities.
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http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2008/10/21/climate_warming_linked_to_illness/