Who's laughing now?

[GliderGuider]

Who's laughing now? Murti's detractors eat crow

It was three years ago, an eternity in the foggy world of commodities trading, when Arjun Murti, a New Jersey native and analyst at Goldman Sachs, published a research note that competitors charged was riddled with irresponsible conjecture.

On a day when oil was trading at $55 (all U.S. figures) per barrel, Murti projected a "super spike" in which a barrel of crude could fetch $105 in the next few years.

Kevin Kerr, owner of the New York commodities research firm that bears his name, branded Murti's report "nothing more than hot air." An investors' blog suggested darkly that Murti was involved in a conspiracy to jack up the value of his firm's oil investments.

Today, Murti's projection seems almost timid.

While the recent fall in oil prices has eased budgetary pressures somewhat, the hunt is on for someone to blame.

Obama, for instance, has targeted the oil industry's "windfall" profits. The activities of commodities traders are also being scrutinized. However, in neither case is there a clear villain.

The consensus forecast among analysts, for what it's worth, is for a continuing softness in demand for oil and gasoline through 2009, followed by a gradual, but relentless, rise in long-term prices.

More at the link.

[tom_paine]

1. Excellent article. n/t