California's salmon industry is waiting for the blow to fall: a near-certain ban on fishing this year. It's a drastic step that could keep hundreds of commercial skippers and thousands of weekend fishermen ashore. It could also open a debate over the iconic fish's future and its mountains-to-sea life cycle that touches nearly every hot-button conservation topic from climate change to dam demolition.
The state's salmon mother lode, the Sacramento River, showed a dearth of returning fish last fall. Those are the prime-time months for the river-reared breed that spends its three-year life in ocean waters before coming home to spawn. No one disputes the numbers: only 68,000 were counted against a bare-minimum expectation of 122,000. This drop has brought a federal agency, the Pacific Fishery Management Council, to the brink of canceling this summer's salmon season, with a decision due next month.
It's the nuclear option in the fishing world, but it's met with acceptance by fishing groups, biologists and environmentalists. With stocks so low - and next year possibly as bad - no one sees an alternative. Salmon challenge California's modern nature like no other creature. The fish live and breed in cold, free-flowing rivers, the same water that farms and cities divert, siphon and store behind dams. Californians drive on roads carved into steep hills that can shower mud that smothers spawning beds. Logging, crop spraying, soil tilling, and riverside cattle-grazing are also harmful.
Fishing groups and environmentalists have long complained about these issues, venting most of their wrath on delta water pumps that suck up young fish and disrupt water flows. But the newest factor is climate change as shown by a shift in ocean currents. Instead of bringing up nutrients from the deep, the currents have changed as ocean temperatures have risen. Since salmon spend most of their life at sea, the impact is crucial. Will the currents change for good - or is it a brief disruption? Restoring salmon stocks will be much harder if the ocean's food supply stays scarce.
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