EIA - Non-OPEC Oil Output Basically Flat 2004 - 2007; IEA - Non-OPEC Production Off 4.1% Since 01/07

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MEXICO CITY — When oil prices tumbled to $10 a barrel in 1998, the world expected non-OPEC countries to ramp up production, provided the price of crude recovered. Nine years later, history tells a different story. Maturing assets in key producer regions, soaring costs, tougher tax regimes and a shortage of trained personnel are stymieing output even as benchmark crude prices edge closer to $100 a barrel.

The trend has left oil producers within the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries better placed to take advantage of soaring oil prices than those outside the group. The shortfall from non-OPEC producers has also contributed to the tightness in global oil supplies, further pushing crude prices toward record territory. "Every year non-OPEC production falls short of expectations," said Bob Tippee, the editor of industry publication The Oil & Gas Journal, in Houston.

Light, sweet crude for December delivery on Tuesday vaulted to a new intraday record high of $97.10 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. New York crude futures prices are up nearly 60 percent so far this year.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Agency, non-OPEC output remained nearly flat from 2004 to 2007, rising from 41.5 million barrels a day in 2004 to 41.9 million barrels a day this year despite the run up in prices. The 2007 forecast from the International Energy Agency', the Paris-based energy watchdog for the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development, for total non-OPEC oil production has fallen 4.1 percent since January, to 50.17 million barrels a day. Of that, non-OECD production has been cut 6.2 percent to 28.02 million barrels a day and OECD output 1.7 percent to 19.83 million barrels a day.

EDIT

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/headline/biz/5280053.html