World Carryover Wheat Stockpiles At Lowest Levels Since 1977 - 1978 - The Australian

[hatrack]

THE world is in no danger of running out of grain, despite the lowest stockpiles in 30 years and concerns about food security.

Australian Farm Institute executive director Mick Keogh said the growing affluence of the developing world and the demand for biofuels, as well as the weather, were behind the substantial price rises in international wheat, dairy and oilseed prices.

The US Agriculture Department estimates that world wheat stocks, at the end of the current crop year, will fall to their lowest level since 1977-78. Two weeks ago, the Australian wheat crop was downgraded from 22.5 million tonnes to 15.4 million.

"The minute it became apparent that Australia's wheat harvest was going to be reduced, the Chicago Board of Trade wheat futures price increased very quickly," Mr Keogh said yesterday. "Australia is a major grain trader, a major beef and sheepmeats trader, so a small change in what we do can have a big impact on world markets."

EDIT

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22489361-30417,00.html

[Viva_La_Revolution]

1. locally soft wheat is going for almost $10 per bushel

up from $4 just last year. it's crazy!


Wheat prices climb to daily trading limit, set record, amid expectations of strong exports
http://www.capitalpress.info/main.asp?SectionID=94&subsectionID=801&articleID=35553

[GliderGuider]

2. There's something odd about that article

The lead sentence says, "The world is in no danger of running out of grain..." but nothing in the rest of the article speaks to that assertion. The rest of it talks about soaring prices, dwindling stocks, climate chaos and ethanol. "We're not running out" is the same argument the Yergins of the world make about oil, and it misses the very same point. As with oil, we won't run out of food. However, production will decline, demand will outstrip supply and prices will keep rising. Just as with oil, the world has run out of cheap food. That's a huge bummer.