Felix

[phantom power]

[RL3AO]

1. Might get just as strong as Dean. In fact, I would say it has a 50% chance of reaching Cat 5.

[RL3AO]

2. Now a hurricane.

[GliderGuider]

3. That was quick...

[RL3AO]

4. TD to Cane in 27 hours. Very very quick.

A Cat 3 by tomorrow evening is not out of the question. If this hits Honduras, it could rival Mitch (which killed 12,000).

[phantom power]

5. And now cat-2

[GliderGuider]

6. The 2:00 update has it at Cat 3.

This thing is really starting to look like a monster.

[phantom power]

7. Wow. Reminds me a bit of 2005.

Except by September of 2005 we were already up to K.

[RL3AO]

8. Actually we were on M by September.

[GliderGuider]

9. 5:00 PM update - Cat 4.

And it's just heading into the warm water:

[RL3AO]

10. That is not warmer water, it is just deeper warm water.

[GliderGuider]

11. So does that mean the mixing from the hurricane's passage

won't cool the surface as much as it would in shallower water? Does it imply there's more thermal mass to pick up heat from?

[RL3AO]

12. Pretty much.

That map is a Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) map. It just shows how much energy is in the water.

[GliderGuider]

15. Thanks. I found an SST image from Friday

It looks as though the water in front of Belize is nice and toasty.

[phantom power]

13. Uhhh. What the hell is this crap?

[phantom power]

14. Tropical Storm (70mph) to Cat-4 (140mph) in 24 hours. Rock on.

[GliderGuider]

16. And thar she blows

From the 8:00 PM update:

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.

From Category 3 to 5 in 6 hours. This thing is a total monster.

[GliderGuider]

17. Felix sets a speed record

Felix has set a record for the fastest intensification from being named as a tropical storm (5 am yesterday) to Cat 5 (8 p.m. today): 39 hours!

[Dead_Parrot]

18. Cool. Wonder what'll happen in the next 39? nt

[tom_paine]

19. That's alotta energy in the atmosphere. Combine that with Arctic Summer Ice Data

and the dots connect quite scarily.

Now, I recognize that I am a lay person, and anyone who wants to correct any technical/scientific error I have made would be most welcome.

I also see that this is something of a vast oversimplification, but here goes:

It seems to me that, in terms of Total Atmospheric Energy alone, our melting icecaps and glaciers are trying to compensate and find pre-industrial equilibrium. But we are running out of coolant to slow the reaction that the Gaian atmosphere is broiling towards.

I just wonder if, as the Artic Summer Ice tapers to zero, and the land-based ice in Antarctica and Greenland continue to melt, that realtive cooling effect that is actually restraining Total Atmospheric Energy from getting worse than it is will be tapering also.

I recognize that certain physical laws govern hurricane formation, and I have heard that, at sustained Cat 5 winds of 175+ the eyewall blows itself apart and the hurricane weakens as it reforms the eyewall, so I wonder if a hurricane with sustained winds of 185+ is an impossiblity based on atmospheric physics and therefore we will just see more storms rocket up to Cat 5's and stop?