By Niall Ferguson
Last Updated: 12:01am BST 29/07/2007
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/07/29/do2901.xmlThe great demographer and economist Thomas Malthus was 23-years-old the last time a British summer was this rain-soaked, which was back in 1789. The consequences of excessive rainfall in the late 18th century were predictable.
Crops would fail, the harvest would be dismal, food prices would rise and some people would starve. It was no coincidence that the French Revolution broke out the same year.
The price of a loaf of bread rose by 88 per cent in 1789 as a consequence of similar lousy weather. Historians of the Left like Georges Lefebvre used to see this as a prime cause of Louis XVI's downfall.
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Malthus's key insight was simple but devastating. "Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio," he observed. But "subsistence increases only in an arithmetical ratio."
In other words, humanity can increase like the number sequence 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, whereas our food supply can increase no faster than the number sequence 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. We are, quite simply, much better at reproducing ourselves than feeding ourselves. (Emphasis mine)
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Doesn't nature find a way to keep itself in balance - when one species (without man's interference) gets too plentiful, wouldn't there be an outbreak of something that would kill off a large part of the population, thereby bringing balance back to it? Or am I just dreaming that up?
This probably belongs in the Peak Oil forum, but it doesn't see as much traffic as over here.