Payroll numbers: Using the Truth to Lie

[kalian]

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/wallenwein/2004/0410.html

There is probably not a single gold-buff who doesn’t look at the March 2004 non-farm payroll numbers with the greatest amount of suspicion.

What exactly has changed from February, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported only 21,000 new jobs added? How did we get from there to 308,000 inside of one month? Did anyone read any news that would explain such an increase?

Yet, as always, it is too easy to just jump up and scream: “Lies. Lies! Nothing but Liieeesss!!!!” What is needed is evidence. Is there any evidence that the government - or the media - lied?

Well, there are some grounds for suspicion:

That “308,000" number is just too pretty, just too darn close to what the President said he and his administration would “create” for this year: an average of 300,000 new jobs added each month for the rest of the year. (After last month’s dismal report, and the November elections rapidly approaching, so much honesty just can’t be tolerated, I guess.)

Strange also, in that connection, that last months figures were “revised upward” by more than one hundred percent! From 21,000 to 47,000, to be exact. A four or five percent margin of error may be tolerable, on the outside. But an over one hundred percent margin of error??? Gimme a break! What kind of light does that throw on the reliability (and, shall we call a spade a spade?) on the credibility of the current figures?

Normally, direct evidence of outright government lying is hard to come by - at least not right away. The truth always has to work itself through the worm holes of the human psyche before it gets a chance to shine again.

But this time, it’s different.

...more...

VERY good article. Lately, the folks over at Financial Sense have
been posting some rather good articles about the suspicions that
underscore the "positive" payroll numbers. This is one of them.

[FARAFIELD]

1. YOUR OFF A BIT

As much as i would like to think there is Hanky_Panky going on. The revised numbers have also taken away jobs. The Labor Department, if you read their website, owns up to it not being a science. And if you compare their PRELIIM numbers to the Adujusted Numbers you will see that most often it has not been to BUSHES favor at all. On May 1 they will announce Februarys ADJUSTED numbers lets see how close that is to what they predicted. ON June 1 They will ADJUST the March 1 308K number lets see where that number is as well. A better arguement for jobs is that 342K filed for unemployment while on 308 new jobs were created, it doesnt take a genuis to see the diff.

[Frodo]

2. His math isn't very good. Does he really so this for a living?

Strange also, in that connection, that last months figures were “revised upward” by more than one hundred percent! From 21,000 to 47,000, to be exact. A four or five percent margin of error may be tolerable, on the outside. But an over one hundred percent margin of error??? Gimme a break! What kind of light does that throw on the reliability (and, shall we call a spade a spade?) on the credibility of the current figures?




The February numbers were, in fact, adjusted upwards 26,000 to 130,240,000.

That would be a margin of error of about 1/50th of a percent. "Four or five percent" would NOT have been "tolerable".

[mhr]

3. Frodo Once Again Your Math Makes No Sense

The comparison was to the net gain in jobs not the total payroll number.

Why you work so hard at defending Bush and his economy, one will never know.

To everyone else, beware the masquerading trolls as posted here on DU.

......
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic...

Some of you may have seen this, but here it is anyway for your comments and future reference.

I found it disturbing....


http://www.conservativeunderground.com//forum/phpBB2//viewtopic.php?t= ...

"Post your DU Mole Tips Here

DU is absolutely the easiest place to stir up. Those guys are like bees. You shoulda seen what I did to them during the primaries. It was great.
Once you have the star and the 1000+ posts.. you are good to go. You can post anything you want. You can get a star by donating a dollar or two.

Even 400 posts or so.. start making NewYawkers lists.. and you know your in.
They love me there... they dont know how much I truely despise them. I hate them all.

But the point is.. once youre a star with a 1000+ posts.. you can be pro life, pro iraq war, pro any GOP platform and get them rats going and never get tombstoned. Your a dedicated DU'er! Pro Gun is absolutely acceptable once they dont suspect you.

This board, I think will be my alternate home to DU. I'm glad I learned about you (on DU)

MY TIPS FOR POSTING

#1 - dont show up a newbie and post some GOP thing.. they will spot you in a second... just post nonsense, pretend to be a die hard dean or keebler elf kucinich supporter who just cant stand "conservative" kerry .. and get your count and record set.

#2 Stay away from the Christian Bashing until you are established. I know thats hard since DU is so disgusting.

#3 A good way to get up your count is hang out in the lounge and do their movie things, sports stuff, whatever... all the nonsense that goes on there. The goal is to get your numbers up... posts some LOL's on stuff... they think you are laughing with them, and you are really laughing at them.

#4 If you venture into GD or GD 2004 ... fake it for awhile.. then you can hammer them.

Remember, Kerry is a slime. True libs don't even like him. He is an easy target.. you can bash him for NCLB, Iraq War, stuff like that.. and stir em up and stay within the rules of "leftistness". '

#5 Absolutely no gay bashing. You can do some later, but if you show up and start bashing gays... well this forum is by and for gays, and you will get a little "He disrupted poorly" by your name.

#6 Lie your ass off at times

#7 Skinner is an idiot and easy to trick... but stay off his radar, or you will get TS'd. But he's easy to zap back.. notify fox he is using their copyrighted stuff, notify polls they are getting DU'd, etc.

#8 Learn their lingo - don't use terms like "tin hats", remember to capitalize "Democrat" (I know its hard), call the GOP repukes, repugs, etc... always put the * By Bush's name. Doesnt hurt and makes em all warm and wet.

#9 If you make a post like "My Dad emailed me this", "What are we going to do when the GOP exposes this" "What will we say about this" or some other sneaky way of putting out a GOP issue out, be very careful. They are well aware of this tactic.

Anyone Else have good mole tips?

While I didnt make your Top 10 DU'er list (thankfully) I've been a DU Member over a year, never been banned, 2000+ posts... obviously I can't post my name to prove it.. but nice to find this site today.

Infiltrate em... stir em up... small joys in life."

Pretty creepy. They seem to know the ins and outs TOO well.

[Frodo]

4. Not exactly. And thanks for the tips.

There is no "net job gain" number in the raw data. They count the number of jobs and compare it to the month before. If that "number of jobs" figure were off by as much as 1% (let alone 4 or 5) they would be restating the "net" figure by a million or more.

Take a look at the following chart and compare the '91-'94 section of the graph to '02-'04. You could have called these numbers a year ago (it took me an extra six months). You could have also predicted that people who find it politically inconvenient timing would post that it looks like a fabrication.



The rest of the post is very interesting. You spend a lot of time on "conservativeunderground"? (is that a mirror site for freeperville?)

For everyone else: If you can't deal with facts - insult the bearer of inconvenient news.


Oh, and once again mhr... your links are broken.