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March's job growth probably overstated the labor market's strength just as February's weak figure understated it. Construction payrolls rose 71,000 in March after declining in February due to bad weather. Retailing was boosted by a 13,000 gain in grocery-store employment as a strike in California ended. Neither gain is likely to be repeated.
Furthermore, despite growing optimism in the industrial sector, manufacturing employment failed to grow. It was unchanged, an improvement from 43 straight months of declines, but still a disappointment considering the rebound in factory production. High productivity growth is enabling firms to boost sales without adding to payrolls.
Finally, two indicators of future demand for employment showed no improvement. The average work week actually fell, to 33.7 hours from 33.8 in February; in the manufacturing sector, it fell to 40.9 from 41. There was no increase in overtime hours. Temporary employment, which often foreshadows changes in permanent employment, saw payrolls drop by 1,800 jobs. Those figures suggest employers are not straining to meet their sales with current work forces.
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