Mr Bean went on tour last week. That's Charlie Bean, of course, the deputy governor of the Bank of England sent out to the regions ostensibly to explain all about quantitative easing, but in reality to spread the news that recovery is just around the corner.
Cautious optimism is the mood of the moment. Even the bear's bear – Nouriel Roubini – was saying late last week that the worst was over, and he boosted stock markets in the process. Bean's message is that the Bank will eventually need to tighten policy – reversing quantitative easing and raising interest rates – but has no intention of doing so yet for fear of "nipping recovery in the bud".
There is patchy evidence to justify the optimism. Some countries, particularly in Asia, bounced back from precipitous falls in output in late 2008 and early 2009 to record positive growth in the second quarter. Singapore, a country badly affected by the collapse in world trade, recorded annualised growth in the three months to June.
Demand for semi-conductors – seen by analysts as a bellwether of future demand for manufacturing goods – rose steadily in the four months to May and is more than 20% above its trough. In the financial markets, the wide spreads between interest rates on government bonds and riskier assets has narrowed to the levels seen last summer before the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. The Office for National Statistics will publish on Friday its first estimate of UK growth in the second quarter and the view in the City is that the economy will have grown a bit, shrunk a bit or remained flat. In any event, the 2.4% contraction in the first quarter will not be repeated.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/jul/20/quantative-easing-charlie-bean