Job losses rise again last week...and it's reported as "Jobless Claims Drop"

[MercutioATC]

Yes, I realize that the spin is "Jobless claims drop", but that's nothing more than an accounting trick.

The "adjusted" numbers adjust the real numbers because of the traditional June autoworker layoffs. Since many of them have already been layed off, the "adjusted" numbers show a decrease in first-time claims...when, in fact, the number of first-time claims rose.

The ADJUSTED number:

New claims dropped 47,000... to 522,000.

The REAL number:

New claims rose by 86,389... to 667,534.


The number of continued claims? The adjusted numbers show a drop in continuing claims of 642,000.

The REAL number? An increase of 63,714.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Jobless-claims-drop-but-apf-3440402076.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode=


Seasonal adjustments are an accepted practice, but they're based on traditional seasonal employment trends. When the actual situation substantially deviates from traditional trends, the "adjusted" numbers mean nothing.

It's not getting better, folks...it's getting worse.

[DJ13]

1. It's not getting better, folks...it's getting worse.

Yes it is.

And as things get worse the bullshit excuses using phony numbers will get worse as well.

Its easier to make things up than to actually deal with the crisis.

Better for the corporate owners of our government too.

[CoffeeCat]

2. At the beginning of the summer...

there was some positive news regarding unemployment numbers. Please forgive me for not remembering exactly
how the media spun it--but it was back in May. I believe that the numbers weren't as bad as originally
forecast.

Well...the truth came out about these May numbers. It turns out--according to many economists--that the
unemployment numbers tick up in early summer due to more available seasonal jobs (landscaping, construction,
lifegarding, garden stores, etc.).

So...really--we can assume that there was some job creation in May--as there is EVERY year. So, the "better than
expected news wasn't due to a booming or improving economy. It was due to natural, seasonal unemployment cycles.


If we're in the middle of July--and continued claims ARE increasing--as you demonstrated with your numbers--I say, hold
on to your butts. I'm no economist, but many seasonal jobs will disappear at the end of August through September--
naturally driving up the unemployment rate.

This is horrendous news if we're increasing jobless claims now, because there's going to be a new wave of unemployment
in Aug-Sept.

Also--I read through your numbers. I have a minor in econmics, and it is hard for me to navigate the bullshit that the
MSM throws out. I appreciate you figuring everything out, and when my head stops spinning (due to all of the spin), I'll
re-read your post.

They're trying to hide the fact that we're swirling down the drain. I'm still trying to figure out why they're trying to
keep us in the dark.

[The_Casual_Observer]

3. 522,000 added to the unemplyment roles, but since it's

47,000 less than last month they are calling in a drop in unemployment.


This kind of thinking is one of the reasons why I could never make it in finance or the corporate world for that matter.

[MercutioATC]

4. Actually, the picture isn't even THAT "rosy"...

86,389 people were ADDED to the unemployment rolls...for a total of 667,534 new claims last week.

The "seasonal adjustment" expected the traditional June autoworker layoffs that didn't happen this year (because they've already been layed off) so it recalculated the actual number number of new claims to "adjust" for a traditional event that didn't happen this year.

We didn't even see a decrease in the real number of jobs lost...it was an increase.

[The_Casual_Observer]

5. I know what you said, but even if you take it at face value, it's ridiculous.

[MercutioATC]

6. You're right, but it WOULD be an indicator that the bleeding might be slowing.

(at least for that week)

As the real numbers show, even that's not the case...

[notesdev]

7. People are running out of benefits

that's why the rolls go down... people used up every last bit of benefits they could, and still no jobs.

[MercutioATC]

8. True, but they're not really even really going down.

MORE people are receiving ongoing benefits, not less.

[zbdent]

9. I think the real news is ... media spins something to try to make Obama look good ...

edited to add:

but you do realize, Faux has had it ruled in court that the "news" organizations can lie ... (well, unless it was against a corporation, like was done a number of years ago ...)