Saudi oil fields "in decline"....

[kalian]

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/24/business/24OIL.html?ei=5062&en=bc7d7425bb64c8cd&ex=1078203600&partner=GOOGLE&pagewanted=print&position=

If the first link does not work, please try this one:
http://makeashorterlink.com/?O68525187

When visitors tour the headquarters of Saudi Arabia's oil empire — a sleek glass building rising from the desert in Dhahran near the Persian Gulf — they are reminded of its mission in a film projected on a giant screen. "We supply what the world demands every day," it declares.

For decades, that has largely been true. Ever since its rich reserves were discovered more than a half-century ago, Saudi Arabia has pumped the oil needed to keep pace with rising needs, becoming the mainstay of the global energy markets.

But the country's oil fields now are in decline, prompting industry and government officials to raise serious questions about whether the kingdom will be able to satisfy the world's thirst for oil in coming years.

Energy forecasts call for Saudi Arabia to almost double its output in the next decade and after. Oil executives and government officials in the United States and Saudi Arabia, however, say capacity will probably stall near current levels, potentially creating a significant gap in the global energy supply.

...more...

Peak oil is here...

[mhr]

1. Peak Oil Links Here

Websites of interest include:

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Home.html
http://globalpublicmedia.com/
http://www.oilcrash.com/
http://www.wolfatthedoor.org.uk/
http://www.durangobill.com/Rollover.html
http://www.asponews.org
http://www.gulland.ca/depletion/depletion.htm
http://www.dieoff.org/
http://www.oilanalytics.org/
http://www.greatchange.org/
http://www.oilcrisis.com/
http://www.after-oil.co.uk/
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/
http://hubbert.mines.edu
http://www.museletter.com/archive/cia-oil.html

Books:

Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil
by David Goodstein

The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies
by Richard Heinberg

Hubbert's Peak : The Impending World Oil Shortage
by Kenneth S. Deffeyes

The Last Hours of Ancient Sunlight : Waking Up to Personal and Global Transformation
by Thom Hartmann

The Oil Factor: How Oil Controls the Economy and Your Financial Future
by Stephen Leeb, Donna Leeb

News Groups:

Energy Resources
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/energyresources/

Alas Babylon
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/AlasBabylon/

Running on Empty
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/RunningOnEmpty2/

[rapier]

2. notes

It's not here for sure. It is probably close.

The market will tell us. While the oil price is strong it is nowhere near what it would be if there was recognition that the supply was inadequate.
There is an outside chance that severe economic problems worldwide might slow demand significantly, enough so that the price remains relatively stable. Such problems include international conflict and war as the 'cause' of a world wide recession, or worse. I raise the issue because this is politics after all.

The exact moment of peak oil will probably never be known. Peak oil should be used as a lens with which to view all major econoimc/political trends. In that light one might view the Iraqi adventure as partly a response to the need to secure oil. Not the main reason necessarily, just one of many.

It is better to think of peak oil not as a moment but as a period. We are in that period.

It goes without saying that tremendous forces are at work trying to keep a lid on oil prices. The inflation of energy prices would be the death knell of the 'no inflation' meme bullhorned relentlessly thru the financial media by the Fed. That in turn would be the death knell of ultra low interest rates, the lifeblood of our so called recovery. While the conventional wisdom says that Bush and Co. are eager for oil company profits the opposite is true. The oil companies themselves are complicit in keeping prices in line, eschewing profit for power. Or that is my rather conspiratorial take on things.

[mhr]

3. Yes Of Course, Few, If Any, Serious People Are Trying To Date Peak Oil

The essential point is that half of the world's endowment of oil has been consumed to date (roughly).

The question is how will humans consume the remaining half?

Will it be burned in a continuing conflagration of consumerism or will it be used wisely while homo sapiens work toward a drastically different future that demands less energy per person?

The pessimists choose scenario one; the optimists choose number two.

The truth? Who knows how it will unfold.

One thing for sure, it will be a bumpy and chaotic ride.

[Petrodollar Warfare]

4. I think 60 b/bls p/year will be the maximum global production....

..of regular oil & 80 b/bls including non-regular oil, and we will soon reach that, if not already. I am fairly convinced that we are at the plateau, which may last a few more years, then it's downhill @ 2.5% per year. The first peak was 2000, and a second mini-peak may occur in a couple of years if Iraq can increase production, but that seems less likely as the oil wells are apparantly heavily damaged via the UN sanctions and lack of engineering equipment to do the repairs during the 1990s. Oil demand is projected to be 100 b/bls by 2020, but we ain't gonna get that kind of output. Seems about 80 b/bls is the max given that the President of OPEC stated they are "close to capacity"...and I have doubts that Saudi will be a "swing" producer by 2005. (as does Matthew Simmons) Just my 2cts worth based on my extensive reading on this issue during 2003/2004. Here's a couple of articles:

ASPO Newsletter #38, Feb 2004
http://www.peakoil.net/Newsletter/NL38/Newsletter38.html
(please note gragh and comments from article #318)

ASPO Newsletter #37, Jan 2004
http://www.peakoil.net/Newsletter/NL37/Newsletter37.html
(please note article #299 re Iraq reserves)

'The Petroleum Plateau' by Heinberg (May 2003)
http://www.museletter.com/archive/135.html

...The terms "oil production peak" and "peak oil" imply a sharp demarcation. One naturally envisions a needle-like moment in time: before the fateful day, oil production wafts ever upward; then, suddenly, the trend reverses. In a flash, economies crumble and our energy-dependent way of life is on its way to an inevitable, crashing end.

This, of course, is an oversimplification. The graph of global oil extraction is not taking the form of the classic bell-shaped Hubbert curve, with a slender, rounded peak; instead, it appears more like bumpy mesa - a flat-topped mountain covered with rubble. A steep runup in extraction, lasting until the early 1970s, was followed by a an uneven plateau and will no doubt be followed by a similarly steep decline.


'Output close to capacity, says Opec head' (Jan 20, 2004)
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1073281175000

"Opec countries are producing oil at "near maximum capacity" as a result of "leakages" above its current agreed quotas, according to the oil cartel's president.

Even Saudi's oil minister publicly stated recently that OPEC's quota system will "become meaningless in a few years"...