DOW up 13% in last 6 sessions. Now only an idiot would say I am claiming this means that the

[JohnWxy]

REpublican crafted Deregulation Disaster is OVER or that our economy has just been rebuilt in six days (how 'deus ex machina').

I hope however, I will be permitted to enjoy some positive news amid the avalanche of bad developments of this catastrophe of the "market policing itself". I share this bit of news if only because I know it causes so much gnashing of teeth in Republican quarters - where the hope remaains fervent that Obama and the Democrats will fail. - (it therefor, gives me no small delight).


here is Yahoo.com's report:http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Wall-Street-resumes-rally-apf-14670630.html">Wall Street resumes rally following housing report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

A surprise government report that home construction picked up in February caught traders off guard and injected a week-old stock market rally with new energy Tuesday.

Stocks of homebuilders and banks jumped as bullish investors saw yet another sign that the deeply troubled economy was beginning to show signs of stabilizing.

Tuesday's rally, which picked up momentum as the day went on, wound up pushing the Dow Jones industrial average up 179 points, or 2.5 percent and the broader Standard & Poor's 500 index up more than 3 percent. It was the market's fifth gain over the past six trading days.

The housing report was the latest checkmark in a growing list of upbeat news. Traders began reconsidering their dire view of the economy early last week when Citigroup Inc. said it had generated a profit in the first two months of the year.

~~

Since the rally began last week, the Dow is up 849 points, or 13 percent. That's the kind of percentage gain that might normally take a year to assemble.
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and CBS Market Watch can hardly be accused of wild-eyed enthusiasm in their observations:http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/still-unclear-anything-more-bear-market/story.aspx?guid=%7B49B542F7%2D24F2%2D44F6%2DA65C%2D9C5ECF05E867%7D&dist=TQP_Mod_mktwN "> Be careful before you leap
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The stock market's rally is certainly looking impressive But bear market rallies always do.

That doesn't automatically mean that the market's recent strength amounts to nothing more than a bear-market rally, of course.
But it is important to keep that possibility in mind as you decide how to classify the rally that began just six trading sessions ago, which as of Tuesday night's close had added 13% to the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now, that hardly sounds like they are trying to 'pump' the market or help Obama out (which they're not expected to do, just to report what's happening.).


To repeat, ... of course, this does not mean the rebuilding effort, after our sojourn into the mania of deregulation, is over. We have a long way to go. And I can say with confidence, we will see down days in the market, too. But it is nice to see a little bit of positive news, a glimmer of renewed confidence (housing starts up too) reflected in the markets.



I'm logging off now, so let the the harranging begin.

[monmouth]

1. Friend of mine down here in Palm Beach County is in real estate and

canceled our lunch date because he had a couple of showings and was really starting to get busy. Thought that was a good sign..

[Danascot]

2. With apologies, I'll be the bad guy:

Market rally just misguided optimism

Don't get excited about the past week's rally. The bear market's keys -- tumbling demand and the death of credit securitization -- aren't likely to improve soon.

Stocks scorched the sky in impressive fashion last week, starting with a 379-point Dow rocket Tuesday and proceeding with the sort of jubilant, eat-my-shorts swagger that has characterized the start of many new bull markets of the past.

Bravo, well done, and quite a relief. But enough to signal an end to the 17-month capital attack that has blown up $50 trillion in market value and blistered many investors' professional reputations? Not a chance, as well-armed bears in police uniforms are just itching to give out tickets to investors trying to break the laws of financial gravity.

The roots of the advance were suspect, and undeniable earnings and credit disasters still lie ahead. The previous 23 times that 5%-plus up days for the market have followed massive one-year declines all came in the ever-hopeful but share-bleeding Depression years of 1931 and 1932. The market may well rally 12% more to the February highs, but bulls shouldn't send out party invitations just yet. Expect the rally to fizzle out by the end of this week or next, or, in a stretch, by the start of April.

...more...

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/SuperModels/market-rally-just-misguided-optimism.aspx


Reflections on the latest dead cat bounce or bear market sucker’s rally

By Nouriel Roubini

... as predicted, in the last week another bear market rally has started in earnest; the latest rally is just a dead cat bounce. Let us explain next in much detail why this is another bear market rally…

First, note that since the previous bear market rallies were of the order of a 15 to 20% increase in equity prices the latest 8% rally may still have some steam and time to continue. The drivers of the latest bear market rally are the ones that we have already discussed – and deconstructed recently – in this forum; here are the arguments of the optimists:

1. While the first derivative of economic activity is still negative the second derivative is becoming positive around the world: i.e. output, employment, demand etc. are still contracting but they are – or will soon be - contracting at a slower rate than in Q4 of 2008. As long as the second derivative is positive rather than negative economic activity will bottom out some time in H2 of 2009 and the recession will be over sooner rather than later.

2. The policy stimulus, both monetary but especially fiscal, in the US, China and the rest of the world is starting to have traction and will contribution to the slowdown in the rate of economic decline and eventually –sooner rather than later – contribute to the economic recovery

3. Stock markets have already fallen in the US and globally by over 50% and are now way oversold. Earnings have fallen a lot but will recover soon as economic activity will soon stabilize. And since stock markets are forward looking and bottom out 6 to 9 months before the end of the recession we must be now at the bottom if the economy will recover by H2 or, at the latest, by year end.

4. Banks and financial stocks are way oversold; Citi, JP Morgan, Bank of America and other banks are now saying that they will be profitable this year and that they will not need any further injection of capital by the government. The financial system is solvent and the undershooting of banks’ equity prices was way too excessive.

http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/255995/reflections_on_the_latest_dead_cat_bounce_or_bear_market_suckers_rally

[notesdev]

3. Don't apologize

This is a typical bear market rally, it was due to retrace and this may continue as long as another month or two. But that's just going to make the next drop all the larger. What you're watching now is a mechanical action of the market - a price correction - not the start of a new trend.

The bottom line on long term market prices is that the corruption is still far too ingrained in the system for healthy economic growth to recover. I am particularly suspicious of this rally because of the ridiculous things that triggered it. We won't really see a market bottom until we can see for real what's on every public company's books, and this "off balance sheet" fraud is permanently put to rest.

[neverforget]

4. What goes up must come down......sucker rally

[Mr. Hyde]

5. The market has been 2 steps forward & 3 steps back for a couple of years now.

I see nothing in the indicators which suggests that this is a change in that pattern. Then again, I haven't looked at the indicators in a couple of weeks. Maybe I need to.

[Joanne98]

6. Option expiration calendar... How will this effect the financials?

http://www.theocc.com/publications/xcal/xcal2009.pdf

[TheWatcher]

16. Well, the Financials are leading the Market down today

And the Dollar is taking another beating.

But don't worry, I'm sure there are plenty of apologists who will chime in to tell us how good all of this Monetization is.

After all, the recovery is here! :eyes:

[terisan]

25. misplaced post

[terisan]

26. The Market rally acknowledges that Goldman Sachs is picking Uncle Sam's pocket with a shovel.

and Uncle Sam is saying dig deeper, boys. Take it all.

[wuvuj]

7. I see a big attempt....

...to generate a rally...guess they finally realized that having everyone's 401Ks going down the tubes wasn't a good thing? :dunce:

I'm guessing that the economy won't bottom till sometime in 2010 along with the housing market...that means a low in Oct 09? Don't tell anyone...I'd like to see a rally. Bernanke says end of 09.

I think this rally might have legs...but is no IMT buy yet.

[tom_paine]

8. This is not remarkable in a Depression. Perhaps a look at some history might help.

http://www.data360.org/dsg.aspx?Data_Set_Group_Id=359

(not the graph at top, but the long-term dataset beneath it)

Fata Morgana.

Mirage.

[thevoiceofreason]

9. Note also the fed's action today

By stepping up to buy such a big amount of Treasuries, thei GUARANTEES that mortgage rats will drop. This too will help.

I love having an administration that is not afraid to admit it makes some missteps, but can focus on multiple balls in the air at a time.

[TheWatcher]

10. The Fed just killed the currency today.

You are in for a rude awakening.

But keep believing in an Artificial Rally based on "Hope" and Propaganda.

if you think what the Fed did today was useful and good for you, you need to do more research.

[thevoiceofreason]

14. You are the clueless one.

Bear market rally - up around 20%.

We are about there.

If the market isin recovery mode, it will then sell off about 5-10%, then start the next up leg.

"Killed the currency." That's pretty funny. Sounds like Hoover. He too was very concerned about the currency.

[TheWatcher]

15. No, YOU are the clueless one, wedded to the delusions that the Media feeds you apparently.

You probably bought this bullshit back in late October when the Stock market did the exact same thing its doing now. You remember that rally, from the 27th-to the 4th.

Would you care to refresh us with you economic genius to tell us where the market ended up at three weeks later after that particular fake rally based on nothing?

The current Rally is based on nothing more than "Hopes" "Assurances", and Conveniently timed, Well-Crafted Propaganda. There is nothing of substance driving this. There has been no fundamental change in the economic environment that points to a recovery.

This whole thing started last Monday night when the entire Banking system was at the edge of the abyss, save for JPM and WFC, GM was collapsing, and GE was whispering indications that they would be Bankrupt by the first week of June.

Then On Tuesday the Market explodes because of a conveniently "leaked" memo from the Citi CEO about how "profitable" they have been in the first two months of the Quarter. Of course the memo contained no one tangible piece of evidence to the fact, just that they are profitable again "Because I say So."

Over the next three days, ALL of the Banks followed suit, parroting the same script from that memo, and all the Banks were Smiling and saying "We're all Profitable now, we don't need any more help", and all of a sudden GM did the same thing, saying it didn't need that 2 Billion it asked for (It was 3 Billion actually, but then what's a billion amongst friends when you're Propagandizing the Sheep).

More Propaganda came out in the form of Easing Accounting Rules (So that Banks can commit even more atrocities than they have already) and the "possibility" that the Mark-To-Market Rule "might be suspended. Then we get the Propaganda Blitz from Washington, full of "Upbeat Rhetoric" and "Soothing language", as well as the announcement of yet more "Plans, Schemes, And Bills" to "Save The Economy."

But the biggest piece of Propaganda we get is from Helo Ben, who informs us that the "Recession will most Probably end by 2009" (After changing that story about five times prior during the week, until he got the one that pleased the Market the most).

So within 72 Hours, The Banking Crisis was solved, everyone was Profitable again, and The Media Pounded it's chests, brought out the Dancing Girls on CNBC, and told us ONCE AGAIN that the Bottom is IN, The Crisis Is Over, the recovery is here, blah, blah, blah, blah.

And the sad thing is many Americans are buying it, because they are not looking past the surface to see if there is any substance or basis in fundamental reality.

As for Helo Ben's action yesterday, did you even LOOK at what happened to the Dollar right after that announcement? A 2.5% decline STRAIGHT DOWN, and one of the biggest one day drops we have seen in quite some time. Care to look at what it's doing today, or are you too busy drooling on yourself because of the BIG RALLY?

OH, That's RIGHT, it's not going up either, is it?

By this Brute Force Monetization, and buying it's own debt, The Fed's action is having a devaluing effect on the Dollar. The effect on treasuries, though Positive in the short term, could be disastrous if the Fed continues on this course. The risk here is devaluing the dollar too far, The Treasury Markets becoming unstable, and THEN you have to worry about China divesting in all that debt they own.

And isn't it just CONVENIENT that Helo Ben decides to take this unprecedented action after China's comments at the G20 Meeting about concerns over the value of US Debt?

But then again, all you care about is the Stock Market going up, so such nuance wouldn't concern a big, tough, smart "investor" like you.

This is a very stupid move by The Fed.

I have to laugh when people like you puff out there chests and call out others for being clueless for not buying into all this nonsense.

What's clueless is believing that the Recession will end by the end of this year.

Entire countries like Iceland are going bankrupt, with it's government falling and it's population slipping into lawless chaos. You have massive uprising and riots continuing in Greece, France, Latvia, and Iceland. Ireland is in danger of complete default, and you have the WHOLE of Eastern Europe on the edge of collapse, which could take Europe with it if it happens, as well as the situation in Mexico, which is near collapse as well.

You have Japan and it's collapsing Export Market, which was the only real source of GROWTH the country had, and it is also slipping deeper into The Abyss.

Unemployment continues to rise, and all of a sudden, after all the smiling and posturing, GM is back in the news with whispers of Bankruptcy, though the Media is being as muted as possible about it, because they want you focused on the "Hopes" and "Assurances".

The unfunded Debt liability of the United States is currently $66 Trillion Dollars.

The GDP OF THE ENTIRE PLANET is $65 Trillion.

Oh, but don't worry, The "Stimlus" sill save you. :eyes:

And then there is other shoe that has not dropped yet.

The CDO, CDS, and Derivatives Markets.

And now we have a story out today that there is legislation being proposed that would allow public pension funds to buy preferred stock from ailing U.S. banks.

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200903181422DOWJONESDJONLINE000870_FORTUNE5.htm

But you probably think that's good too.

Just like you'll believe whatever Propaganda you're fed about the current "Hope Rally". It doesn't matter how it's happening, just tell you whatever you want to hear that makes you feel good, and you'll go along with whatever.

If not buying into the current Propaganda Blitz, and not believing in the completely Artificial Environment that's being pumped makes me clueless, I'd much rather be that than a Sheep wedded to the delusion of whatever False Paradigm I was told to believe in by the very mouthpieces and criminals who helped Create the Crisis to begin with.

voiceofreason?

More like voiceofdelusion.

Now please, take your juvenile insults, ridiculous and irrelevant references to Hoover :wtf:, and piss off.

[thevoiceofreason]

20. Well aren't you the pissy one!

Settle down, get back on your meds, and analyze.

The plans are coming out now, and they have a chance to work.

or, we could just follow the alternative: watch 'em fail.

If you would pull your very lagre head out of your ass, you would see that there are signs of stability.

I'm not saying it is a full-blown recovery, but there are glimmers.

Your attitude is a waste.

[Po_d Mainiac]

22. 1 trillion $'s worth of stability?

And all that bought was a puny 30pts on the S & P. The only thing fueling the markets is our tax dollars morphing into the so-called assets that banks don't want on their books.

5.1% increase in existing homes sales...Big f**king deal. That's a month to month difference. January's numbers sucked more than at any time since the figures have been kept. Somehow the 10% increase in RRE inventory got swept aside :wtf:

The CRR hammer has yet to fall. Main Street is not following Wall Street, but Wall Street will follow Main Street.

The US economy is based on drunken consumption, and the average consumer is suffering a massive hangover.

Illustrate the signs of stability and back up your statements before you start insulting reason.

The State I live in has an open Moose season....you're more than welcome to come visit.

[thevoiceofreason]

23. I'll return the favor - it's turkey season down here

No one says everythng is rosy. Certainly not me. But we do have:

(a) A yield curve that has finally shown an upward slope, which usually portends a recovery in the 6-18 month time frame.

(b) A rise in Monster’s Employment Index in February, suggesting a turn in the job market may be around the corner.

I agree - not all indicators are good. And there is more pain to come. But there are signs of hope. Like springtime.

[SlowDownFast]

27. Still in denial mode, apparently.

[TheWatcher]

17. And just in case you are still cheering this on like you were at a Football Game.....

NOW China and Russia are talking about THIS:

China backs talks on dollar as reserve -Russian source
Thu Mar 19, 2009 11:24am EDT

By Gleb Bryanski

MOSCOW, March 19 (Reuters) - China and other emerging nations back Russia's call for a discussion on how to replace the dollar as the world's primary reserve currency, a senior Russian government source said on Thursday. Russia has proposed the creation of a new reserve currency, to be issued by international financial institutions, among other measures in the text of its proposals to the April G20 summit published last Monday.

Calls for a rethink of the dollar's status as world's sole benchmark currency come amid concerns about its long-term value as the U.S. Federal Reserve moved to pump more than a trillion dollars of new cash into the ailing economy late Wednesday.

Russia met representatives of China, India and Brazil ahead of the G20 finance ministers meeting last week, as the big emerging powers seek to up their influence on decisionmaking globally. Their first ever joint communique did not mention a new currency but the source said the issue was discussed.

"They (China) did not formally put forward their position for the G20 summit but unofficially they had distributed their paper regarding the same ideas (the need for the new currency)," the source told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The source said the Chinese paper envisaged the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) being first assigned a role of a clearing currency on some transactions and then gradually becoming the main global reserve currency. "They said that the role of reserve currency should be given to SDR," the source said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/usDollarRpt/idUSLJ93633020090319

YES, you're right.

What the patient needs is MORE debt and devaluing of the currency.

Just so you can feel good when the market artificially Skyrockets for no discernible reason based on not one tangible essence of reality or fundamentals.

Why not just go to the Casino and throw your chips into that Black Hole.

At least you'd get Comps.

Jesus, WHAT IS WRONG WITH PEOPLE?

:banghead:

[Po_d Mainiac]

19. When the Oil Sheiks start to openly caucus with

China, India, and Brazil.....Game Over......My guess is they are already meeting off record. Can't blame them. We (the ugly Americans) just pissed in their punch bowls. Hellofa way to leave a party.

[thevoiceofreason]

21. This is the ? time that this discussion has come up?

There were at least three instances of China, Russia, Saudi Arabi and Iran, last year, bringing up the dollar decoupling proposal. It's not going to happen anytime soon. Relax abd drink some more of your bitters.

[TheWatcher]

11. If you want to keep on Drinking the Kool-Aid, be my guest.

But this is not sustainable, and it is not based on anything real or substantiated.

keep believing.

[leftofthedial]

12. The Dow means less than nothing.

I'm flat broke, but if you give me two or three trillion dollars over the next couple of months, my bank account will look pretty good.

[4dsc]

13. Remember the stock market is not the economy

The Stock Market is a mere reflection of the economy like looking at yourself in a mirror. It is not the economy and does not even provide a reliable forecasting tool of what is to come economically.

-Martin Armstrong

[upi402]

18. "It's the BUSH recovery!!!"

Ya gotta know the freeps are ready to grab and brag this.

[JohnWxy]

24. update: more baaaad news - DOW up 700 points today. S&P up 7% too.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Stks-JumpDJIA-Has-Biggest-Percentage/story.aspx?guid=%7B94F26126%2DFFA7%2D4A8D%2DA2A6%2D427F3F771F0F%7D


Overall, the Dow rose 497.48 points, or 6.84%, to 7775.86, its biggest percentage gain since an 11% surge on Oct. 28 and its highest close since Feb. 13 as all 30 components finished in the green. The broader Standard & Poor's 500 rose 54.38 points, or 7.08%, to 822.92, also its highest close since Feb. 13 and biggest gain since Oct. 28. The S&P 500 is up 22% from its 12 1/2-year closing low of 677 on March 9, technically a bull market. Still, the S&P 500 had a similar gain between Nov. 20 and Jan. 6, which was later wiped out.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

as I said beeefor: "... only an idiot would say I am claiming this means that the
REpublican crafted Deregulation Disaster is OVER or that our economy has just been rebuilt" in a few weeks. But I'm sure we'll hear from those I referred to above again.

Asian markets were up too:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Asian-markets-advance-gains-lower/story.aspx?guid=%7BA1942E80%2DA9CB%2D439F%2D9324%2DA715CA2A1717%7D


NOw I shouldn't need to tell people that the market doesn't go in straight line and we will certainly see down days ahead, too. But today at least, it was up ... 7%.


Loggin off, now.

[JohnWxy]

28. CORRECTION: it was 500 points - and 7%. I guess I shouldn't try to post after a long day's work &

having only a protein bar for supper. Well, at least the articles at the links had it correctly stated.