Part one of junker prediction on dollar: good

[cosmicaug]

I'm referring to the thread listed at http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=114&topic_id=4770

I'll call it good so far (mainly because the dollar hasn't been doing anything too drastic and because I'm not sure that I know exactly what he meant by thrashing --call it a freebie).

Now the dollar should drop a lot faster than what was the case during the end of last year and the early part of January for his whole prediction to be considered successful.

[fearnobush]

1. Are we talking De-flation here, or

the BFEE attempt to crush the dollars value to put the brakes on the full Free fall of the trade deficit?

[54anickel]

2. I thought Junker answered your "call him out" in post 28 of that thread?

[cosmicaug]

3. I suppose.

54anickel wrote:

I thought Junker answered your "call him out" in post 28 of that thread?

I suppose he was saying that his predictions shouldn't really be taken that seriously with respect to their timing. If that's the case, he should simply not make his predictions so specific with respect to timing in the first place.

Besides, I forgot about that response. I just posted what I posted because the reminder which I had set up for myself regarding this prediction went off over the weekend.

[54anickel]

4. Not to answer for Junker, I've noticed his most recent posts do not

give specifics with respect to timing or amounts.

I think that Junker raises a lot of valid concerns. His points just seemed to get lost as people kept beating on the specific timings and amounts he would give.

I've done the same thing on occassion, and caught myself missing the true concern of his message.

[papau]

5. I agree - Junker's concern with basic econ common sense being ignored is

quite valid.

What amazes me is how the Street is rewarding house econ folks good predictions of next weeks number on something/anything with big bonus/praise - along as it comes with the optimistic spin, while the street is ignoring everything else - meaning all the times the projection is silly.

And someone finally noticed the optimistic next 10 year job growth projection also says almost all those jobs will be low paying service jobs.

Has the FED gone completely whore, like DOL STAT, and OMB?

[cosmicaug]

6. Surprise!

papau wrote:

I agree - Junker's concern with basic econ common sense being ignored is quite valid.

And if he quits making those silly "in three days the price of gold will triple" types of predictions (O.K., he didn't actually make that prediction, but you get my point) he'll have that much more credibility (as long as he isn't quoting some English guy who's really, really good at financial astrology or quoting some guy who knows a guy who does a lot of crystal meth and is really tuned into the underground economy of the Hell's Angels).

papau wrote:

What amazes me is how the Street is rewarding house econ folks good predictions of next weeks number on something/anything with big bonus/praise - along as it comes with the optimistic spin, while the street is ignoring everything else - meaning all the times the projection is silly.

Why the surprise? Hasn't this been the modus operandi in the past too? Why would things be any different now? Did any of those "house econ folks" make any less money in the past for making wildly optimistic but inaccurate forecasts or any more money for making more glum but accurate forecasts?

Just wondering