The exhaustion rate has been above the 40% level since August 2002

[will work 4 food]

Friday, you'll hear plenty about the nation's unemployment rate, which is expected to end up in the neighborhood of 5.7%-to-5.8%. But what you likely won't hear much about is the number of people who have totally exhausted their unemployment benefits.

In January, approximately 375,000 workers completely ran out of unemployment benefits. This is the highest one-month number on record. If you think times were bad when you take in $275 a week from the Department of Labor, try making absolutely nothing. What is especially alarming is that this number is projected to grow to a whopping 1.9 million people by June, according to the Center on Budget and Policies Priorities.

In response, the House of Representatives voted to reinstate a six-month extension of the unemployment benefits program yesterday. However, passage in the Senate is not as clear - nor is passage of the final appropriations bill that would be needed to fund the program.

But even if this bill is passed, tomorrow's unemployment rate will not reflect the true picture of the labor market. According to the Labor Department's calculation of the unemployment rate, only workers who currently receive unemployment benefits are counted.

Rather, they show up in an obscure statistic called the "exhaustion rate" which measures the percentage of workers who have exhausted benefits offered to them six months ago. The exhaustion rate hit 43.4% in December and has been above the 40% level since August 2002 - that's sixteen straight months. Compare this to the recession of the early 1990s when this figure topped out at 40% for a grand total of two months - once in 1992 and once in 1994.

So, while the market lauds the fact that the unemployment rate is "stabilizing" or even falling, remember that there's more to this than meets the eye. As the people who show up in the exhaustion rate will tell you, the unemployment situation is far worse than the Department of Labor's unemployment rate figures would lead you to believe.

http://www.safemoneyreport.com/

[JPace]

1. I live in N.C. and we lead the nation

in residents losing their unemployment
benefits. Two more plants closed this
week in Western N.C. for a total of
21 in a year with 4,500 jobs lost
because of foreign competition and
plants moving over there for the cheap
labor. Today I was at a grocery store
and behind the checkout stand was a
Mexican lady being taught by another
Mexican lady to run the register. She
could barely understand what I was
asking. I think cheap labor is coming
here as well as being shipped overseas.
I don't see a lot of hope here for
American workers.

[mhr]

2. Unemployed 43 Months Here - No Job Prospects In Sight!

eom

[oscar111]

3. not the bottom line..JOB SHORTAGE is bottom line.

nice post!!
still, exh rate is not the real bottom line in employ situation... DOL's PROJECT JOLT tells the real main thing about employment...

JOB SHORTAGE.

now six million.

JOLT tells the net openings existing. Match with unemp. number, and jobless exceed the openings by the

number called

JOB SHORTAGE.

DEMS need to use this number all the time. Few realize its potency in debate. So far. JS puts blame off of the jobless, onto those who fail to create enough jobs for america.

go to DOL, JOLT page, then hard to find TABLE 2, top row of numbers. Last no. is recent-est month of total openings . Match up with the widely trumpted unemp total, and you derive the JOB SHORTAGE in millions.

Use whatever unemp. number you think most valid... discouraged included or not. Gives diff values for JS number. six million is minimum value, using gov official unemp no.

http://www.njfac.org is great site, tho.. not yet realize that JOB SHORTAGE is available as a stat. Strange, as advisor there calls for just that! Turkey site manager, i guess. Who knows?

[junker]

4. damn right - job shortage...but don't lose sight of the pay decreases

Have been unemployed nearly a year now. Ran out of UI funds. No retraining and if retrained, for what job? THere just ain't none.

ANd told by Employment Sec that I will be out of work another 19 months in this area (PNW) if I am average (over 50) AND I will make 1/3 at my new job that I made at my old job (which by the way was one quarter of what I made at the job before that).

Might end up going homeless in the "bush boom" ...here they're gonna build a "bush ville" encampment in WA DC this spring/summer. May end up joining them if the house goes....

[54anickel]

5. Great post, thanks. Sort of makes those month releases immaterial,

doesn't it? Yet we see so many times here on DU, folks arguing the monthly reports and not posting and/or quoting finds like this one.

Thanks again.

[will work 4 food]

6. Thanks

Thanks for your appreciation.

This is from another thread. worth repeating.


http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htm