what's the bottom for the stock market?

[greenman3610]

Someone posted on this a while ago, with some kind of
"rule of thumb" of what the theoretical "bottom" of the
market in any slide will be.
Any guesses on this?

[spindrifter]

1. The last stock standing?

[Sherman A1]

2. Don't know what it will be, but I have heard

somewhere in the 3000 range.

[BlooInBloo]

3. 0.

This has been another episode of Simple Answers To Simple Questions.

[Atman]

4. I heard Jim Cramer yesterday say it's about 6000

He said there are still enough healthy, strong companies that it really can't go much lower than that no matter what.

I hope he's right.

.

[Hoyt]

8. A month ago Cramer said 8200.

I doubt anyone knows. Even gold stocks have tanked.

[regnaD kciN]

5. Technically speaking, 0...

There's a general rule of thumb that stocks won't decline below a certain multiple of their P/E ratio. When the slide began, I think most people figured that would be around 6,000.

[Mind_your_head]

6. If anyone REALLY knew the answer to your question, they'd be in

line to be a BRAZILLIONAIRE!

In other words, as smart as DU'ers, et al are ;-) ..... no one 'knows'.

[MichiganVote]

7. There isn't one really.

[gravity]

9. The rule of thumb is capitulation

Everyone is waiting for the stock market to completely capitulate, where everyone gives up hope and sells and then there will be no buyers. The problem is that too many people use this signal, so they don't panic during the really big dips and buy into it. It has caused a really wild ride, but there has been no mass panic, so we hadn't had that signal yet.

Practically speaking, the bottom is going to occur at the exact moment you give up and sell to stop the pain.

[dweller]

10. Zed

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3610519#3611509
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3610519#3611801

:yoiks:


dp

[leftofthedial]

11. I thought it would be about 5000

but now I'm thinking 0.

[girl gone mad]

12. Stocks declined almost 90% in the Great Depression.

A similar bear market would put us at just over 1400 on the Dow.

[GliderGuider]

13. Someone I respect greatly calls Dow 1000 by the end of 2010

They called the collapse to the month (this October) back in early 2007. They think we're just at the beginning of the tumble, that it's going to be a deflationary collapse due to the large amount of derivatives that still need to be (de)valued, and that the world will never recover to the current level of economic activity because of Peak Oil and ecological damage.

They're my EF Hutton -- when they talk, I listen.

[GoesTo11]

14. Stock prices are set by magic

So it could go to any low value or any high value and there's just no way to predict it at all.

[lectrobyte]

15. Kunstler predicts 4000

[GliderGuider]

16. Why would it stop there?

I've never understood any of the rationale for calling a bottom short of a 90% capitulation.

[angryfirelord]

17. Don't listen to Cramer

He has no idea what he's talking about. He only does what CNBC tells him.

A bottom? We've hit a temporary bottom right now, so expect the Dow to bounce around for a little bit. In fact, it has the potential to rally over the next few months. However, for the long-range drop over the next 5 years, 2000 points for the Dow certainly isn't out out of the question.