US recession is already here, warns Merrill

[flashl]

The US has entered its first full-blown economic recession in 16 years, according to investment bank Merrill Lynch.

Merrill, itself one of Wall Street's biggest casualties of the sub-prime crisis, is the first major bank to declare that a recession in the world's biggest economy is now underway.

David Rosenberg, the bank's chief North American economist, argues that a weakening employment picture and declining retail sales signal the economy has tipped into its first month of recession.

Mr Rosenberg, who is well-respected on Wall Street, argues: "According to our analysis, this (recession) isn't even a forecast any more but is a present day reality."

...

Mr Rosenberg points to a whole batch of negative data to support his analysis, including the four key barometers used by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NEBR) - employment, real personal income, industrial production, and real sales activity in retail and manufacturing.

Mr Rosenberg notes that although the NEBR will be the final arbiter of any recession, such confirmation may be two years away as it typically waits for conclusive evidence including benchmark revisions.

Telegraph UK - Read Full Text

[Donnachaidh]

1. DUH -- finally!

I've been saying this for MONTHS. The only possible good thing is the major hit Chimpie's *legacy* is going to take over the recession. And he's still got a year to push us further into a potential Depression.

[xchrom]

2. polls have indicated that concerns about the economy

have overtaken every other issue for people voting democratic -- this was -- and i forget where i saw it -- prominent in one stations analysis after iowa.

iraq was third -- after -- health care.

[Warpy]

3. I second the "well, DUH!"

because most of us have been in a continuous recession since 2000. We've seen both blue and white collar jobs shipped overseas and the only replacement jobs here low paid service jobs. Now that the consumer market is being choked off completely by low wages and high prices of necessities while net worth in real estate is evaporating and debt loads increase, those service jobs are starting to evaporate, too. I'm seeing a lot of newly empty storefronts and the ones that aren't empty no longer have "help wanted" signs in the windows.

Merrill Lynch and the other brokerages were part of the cause of the problem, pushing Congress to deregulate the industry so the thieves could rush in to take advantage of it and hike paper profits to insane levels.

They're starting to reap what they've sown and while it's poetic justice, they'll likely take the 90% of us down an even worse road than we've traveled over the last 7 years of GOP economic fuckup.

My dad was Merrill's war buddy and clung to them until his death. I dumped them a year later and haven't been haunted. I'm a lot less sentimental when it comes to money than he was and dumping them was an advantageous thing for me to do, resulting in an increase in income for the year. However, I don't expect to come out of this unhurt. It's going to damage us all very badly, rich and poor and all of us in between.

[Purveyor]

4. Residents here in Michigan realized this at least 2 years ago. K&R eom

[flashl]

5. The numbers for subprime loans in Detroit alone is staggering. n/t