893,000 new jobs since 1/1/01w/ 2975 since 1/04, but w/o estimate of not

[papau]

paying payroll tax jobs, the numbers are negative over Bush's time in office.

Indeed, these are interesting numbers- new unemployment is more or less unchanged month after month under Bush since taking office in 2001, while total job gain over 4 plus years (53 months) is only 893,000, with job gains in 04 and 05 totaling 2,975 over 17 months

Yet the pretend work at home but have not gotten round to paying payroll taxes group has grown from the 416 when Clinton left office to the current total adjustment of 2,716 (1,237 since 1/1/04, 2,400 since taking office).

So the job growth of payroll tax paying jobs is a loss of 1507 over Bush's term to date, while our recovery since 1/1/04 has 1738 new payroll tax paying jobs over the last 17 months (seasonal versus not seasonal adjusted must tend to zero over many years, so the birth death numbers are used directly with no attempt at a "seasonal adjustment")

And folks wonder why the unemployment rate decreases?!??? - Can we say discouraged workers giving up on looking for a job?




http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm

June 16, 2005


UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending June 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 333,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 332,000. The 4-week moving average was 335,000, an increase of 2,750 from the previous week's revised average of 332,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.1 percent for the week ending June 4, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 2.0 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 4 was 2,641,000, an increase of 58,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 2,583,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,596,500, an increase of 11,250 from the preceding week's revised average of 2,585,250.


http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Friday, June 3, 2005.


THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: MAY 2005

Nonfarm employment edged up by 78,000 in May following a much larger increase in April, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 5.1 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Payroll employment continued to grow over the month in health care and construction, but was little changed in the other major industry sectors.

Not Seasonally Adjusted Super Sector: Total nonfarmIndustry ALL EMPLOYEES, THOUSANDS

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual

2001 130433 131098 131690 132094 132800 133179 131686 131613 131871 132072 131880 131491 131826
2002 128602 129069 129672 130257 131023 131404 129959 130044 130559 131227 131346 130933 130341
2003 128248 128660 129148 129800 130559 130890 129549 129601 130253 131045 131207 131026 129999
2004 128365 128976 130019 131150 132068 132527 131384 131416 132127 133139 133406 133187 131480
2005 130495 131337 132196 133374(p) 134081(p)

Seasonally Adjusted Super Sector: Total nonfarmIndustry ALL EMPLOYEES, THOUSANDS

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual

2001 132454 132546 132511 132214 132187 132029 131941 131803 131549 131172 130879 130705
2002 130581 130478 130441 130335 130326 130377 130277 130295 130250 130309 130315 130161
2003 130247 130125 129907 129853 129827 129854 129857 129859 129953 130076 130172 130255
2004 130372 130466 130786 131123 131373 131479 131562 131750 131880 132162 132294 132449
2005 132573 132873 132995 133269(p) 133347(p)




http://www.bls.gov/ces/cesbdhst.htm


The table below shows the net birth/death model adjustment used in the published CES estimates since the establishment of the most recent benchmark level for March 2004.

2004 Net Birth/Death Adjustment (in thousands) Supersector Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Total 225 204 181 -80 123 44 55 9 66


2005 Net Birth/Death Adjustment (in thousands) Supersector Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Total -280 100 179 257 207


January 2004 – December 2004 Preliminary Estimates

Total -321 115 153 270 195 182 -91 120 39 42 54 78 836



April 2003 – December 2003 Post-Benchmark Estimates
Apr

Total 128 192 164 -83 124 33 45 30 62 695



April 2003 – December 2003(1) Preliminary Estimates

Total 228 194 167 -69 119 27 43 26 53 788


April 2002 – March 2003 Preliminary Estimates

Total 66 166 148 -11 59 14 -15 -7 12 -211 8 60 289



April 2002 – March 2003 Post-Benchmark Estimates

Total
45 176 156 -61 106 23 68 25 53 -391 119 151 470



April 2001 – March 2002 Preliminary Estimates

Total 47 63 45 4 35 18 15 1 1 -112 28 51 196



April 2001 – March 2002 Post-Benchmark Estimates

Total 75 112 106 -13 53 10 -31 -23 3 -239 -4 42 91



April 2000 – March 2001 Preliminary Estimates

Total 8 8 5 -4 7 3 4 5 7 -19 8 7 39



April 2000 – March 2001 Post-Benchmark Estimates

Total 53 72 48 11 37 23 10 -5 -6 -133 31 52 193



April 1999 – March 2000 Post-Benchmark Estimates

Total 1 9 5 -6 9 4 4 6 9 -23 6 6 30



Last Modified Date: February 4, 2005

[jojo54]

1. The key word here is "insured"

They don't want to talk about the thousands of people who've dropped off the list because their benefits ran out. If included, the new rate would probably be more like 8%. A lot of these people still don't have jobs and a lot of them are working 2 or 3 jobs, just to make ends meet.

[AX10]

2. The long term unemployment fluxuates between.....

9.0 and 10.2 percent.